Large Currency Speculators reduced US Dollar bullish bets for 5th week

May 2, 2015

By CountingPips.com

US Dollar net speculator positions dropped last week to +$34.75 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to cut back on their overall net bullish positions for the US dollar last week for a fifth straight week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $34.75 billion as of Tuesday April 28th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$3.12 billion from the $37.87 billion total long position that was registered on April 21st, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The latest data puts the US dollar speculative level at a new lowest level since December 16th when net positions equaled $34.64 billion.

Weekly Changes:

Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the euro, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar while decreasing weekly bets for just the British pound sterling and the Mexican Peso.


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Notable Changes:

  • The euro bets gained sharply by 16,879 contracts to under -200,000 net contracts for the first time since March
  • Japanese yen bets improved for a third week and holds only a small bearish position (-5,493 contracts)
  • Swiss franc bets improved slightly for a 3rd week to raise its small bullish position to +1,335 contracts
  • New Zealand dollar positions gained for a seventh week and rose higher into bullish territory (+10,180 contracts)
  • Mexican Peso bets declined for a 2nd week and fell further into bearish territory after one week in bullish territory on April 14th

This latest COT data is through Tuesday April 28th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

 




Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/24/2015 460950 50148 271111 10.9 58.8 -220963 -27189
03/31/2015 459746 41709 268269 9.1 58.4 -226560 -5597
04/07/2015 441624 39444 254702 8.9 57.7 -215258 11302
04/14/2015 453518 45264 257611 10 56.8 -212347 2911
04/21/2015 457610 46821 261466 10.2 57.1 -214645 -2298
04/28/2015 456919 50734 248500 11.1 54.4 -197766 16879



British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/24/2015 178140 35938 74495 20.2 41.8 -38557 -706
03/31/2015 182514 35143 71773 19.3 39.3 -36630 1927
04/07/2015 185219 37641 71942 20.3 38.8 -34301 2329
04/14/2015 189513 33993 70038 17.9 37 -36045 -1744
04/21/2015 175066 34830 64111 19.9 36.6 -29281 6764
04/28/2015 171698 33239 67367 19.4 39.2 -34128 -4847



Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/24/2015 181026 39156 85061 21.6 47 -45905 2149
03/31/2015 177478 44409 68333 25 38.5 -23924 21981
04/07/2015 189444 53320 77769 28.1 41.1 -24449 -525
04/14/2015 195230 54783 77853 28.1 39.9 -23070 1379
04/21/2015 189332 51520 65968 27.2 34.8 -14448 8622
04/28/2015 188079 48721 54214 25.9 28.8 -5493 8955



Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/24/2015 36296 12604 16559 34.7 45.6 -3955 -6190
03/31/2015 34149 13679 12973 40.1 38 706 4661
04/07/2015 33245 12746 12626 38.3 38 120 -586
04/14/2015 33935 12240 12070 36.1 35.6 170 50
04/21/2015 31727 11105 10770 35 33.9 335 165
04/28/2015 31585 11144 9809 35.3 31.1 1335 1000



Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/24/2015 106731 19193 51849 18 48.6 -32656 166
03/31/2015 110447 18771 48389 17 43.8 -29618 3038
04/07/2015 114881 22081 52100 19.2 45.4 -30019 -401
04/14/2015 118686 23020 53598 19.4 45.2 -30578 -559
04/21/2015 126801 33343 60394 26.3 47.6 -27051 3527
04/28/2015 128938 33858 54767 26.3 42.5 -20909 6142



Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/24/2015 135693 52079 80447 38.4 59.3 -28368 439
03/31/2015 138260 55814 80170 40.4 58 -24356 4012
04/07/2015 159532 55928 96209 35.1 60.3 -40281 -15925
04/14/2015 161971 55077 97510 34 60.2 -42433 -2152
04/21/2015 153363 55570 90233 36.2 58.8 -34663 7770
04/28/2015 140298 53753 81158 38.3 57.8 -27405 7258



New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/24/2015 20958 12149 13015 58 62.1 -866 275
03/31/2015 24049 16443 12412 68.4 51.6 4031 4897
04/07/2015 24920 16950 11172 68 44.8 5778 1747
04/14/2015 25176 17081 11078 67.8 44 6003 225
04/21/2015 26617 18473 9985 69.4 37.5 8488 2485
04/28/2015 28071 18281 8101 65.1 28.9 10180 1692



Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/24/2015 150320 35044 76144 23.3 50.7 -41100 14839
03/31/2015 157688 43289 73578 27.5 46.7 -30289 10811
04/07/2015 151072 42185 65110 27.9 43.1 -22925 7364
04/14/2015 130501 63521 55160 48.7 42.3 8361 31286
04/21/2015 118074 50343 64018 42.6 54.2 -13675 -22036
04/28/2015 138497 38003 61394 27.4 44.3 -23391 -9716



*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.




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