Large Currency Speculators cut their US Dollar bullish bets for 6th week

May 9, 2015

By CountingPips.com

US Dollar net speculator positions fell last week to +$32.25 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators decreased their overall net bullish positions for the US dollar last week for a sixth consecutive week and to the lowest level since September 2014.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $32.25 billion as of Tuesday May 5th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$2.50 billion from the $34.75 billion total long position that was registered on April 28th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The latest data puts the US dollar speculative level at a new lowest level since September 16th when net positions equaled $31.42 billion.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the euro, British pound sterling, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar while decreasing weekly bets for the Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican Peso.

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Notable Changes:

  • The euro bets rose for a 2nd week by +7,639 contracts to improve to the best level since March
  • British pound sterling positions gained by +9,370 contracts to land at the best level since February
  • Japanese yen bets dropped after gaining for the previous 3 weeks and fell back to a bearish position of over -30,000 contracts
  • Swiss franc bets gained for a 4th week to raise its bullish position to +5,331 contracts
  • Canadian dollar bets rose for a 3rd week to level at a bearish position of -10,080 contracts. This is the lowest bearish position since October
  • Australian dollar bets rose sharply last week to a small bullish position (+626 contracts) for the first bullish position since September 2014
  • New Zealand dollar positions slightly declined after seven weeks of rises that moved the NZD into bullish territory
  • Mexican Peso bets declined for a 3rd week and dropped further into bearish territory after one week in bullish territory on April 14th

This latest COT data is through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Com Long Com Short Net Com Com Chg Net Specs Specs Chg
03/31/2015 459746 41709 268269 372420 97951 274469 2614 -226560 -5597
04/07/2015 441624 39444 254702 356228 96223 260005 -14464 -215258 11302
04/14/2015 453518 45264 257611 358360 101060 257300 -2705 -212347 2911
04/21/2015 457610 46821 261466 361058 102833 258225 925 -214645 -2298
04/28/2015 456919 50734 248500 356986 116294 240692 -17533 -197766 16879
05/05/2015 449254 50116 240243 343981 116070 227911 -12781 -190127 7639

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Com Long Com Short Net Com Com Chg Net Specs Specs Chg
03/31/2015 182514 35143 71773 130848 75229 55619 -3239 -36630 1927
04/07/2015 185219 37641 71942 130411 78813 51598 -4021 -34301 2329
04/14/2015 189513 33993 70038 136944 79221 57723 6125 -36045 -1744
04/21/2015 175066 34830 64111 124700 77203 47497 -10226 -29281 6764
04/28/2015 171698 33239 67367 118250 73492 44758 -2739 -34128 -4847
05/05/2015 173468 34304 59062 117555 87212 30343 -14415 -24758 9370

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Com Long Com Short Net Com Com Chg Net Specs Specs Chg
03/31/2015 177478 44409 68333 116378 53965 62413 -23565 -23924 21981
04/07/2015 189444 53320 77769 118118 54475 63643 1230 -24449 -525
04/14/2015 195230 54783 77853 121029 64194 56835 -6808 -23070 1379
04/21/2015 189332 51520 65968 120368 70330 50038 -6797 -14448 8622
04/28/2015 188079 48721 54214 118521 85966 32555 -17483 -5493 8955
05/05/2015 198886 41852 73035 139448 72449 66999 34444 -31183 -25690

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Com Long Com Short Net Com Com Chg Net Specs Specs Chg
03/31/2015 34149 13679 12973 14653 4497 10156 -2746 706 4661
04/07/2015 33245 12746 12626 13347 4548 8799 -1357 120 -586
04/14/2015 33935 12240 12070 14628 4733 9895 1096 170 50
04/21/2015 31727 11105 10770 13105 6074 7031 -2864 335 165
04/28/2015 31585 11144 9809 13114 7268 5846 -1185 1335 1000
05/05/2015 34449 14174 8843 12091 11680 411 -5435 5331 3996

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Com Long Com Short Net Com Com Chg Net Specs Specs Chg
03/31/2015 110447 18771 48389 66324 21992 44332 -5151 -29618 3038
04/07/2015 114881 22081 52100 67159 23581 43578 -754 -30019 -401
04/14/2015 118686 23020 53598 66797 24088 42709 -869 -30578 -559
04/21/2015 126801 33343 60394 64497 30901 33596 -9113 -27051 3527
04/28/2015 128938 33858 54767 64232 39337 24895 -8701 -20909 6142
05/05/2015 122108 30028 40108 63415 49852 13563 -11332 -10080 10829

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Com Long Com Short Net Com Com Chg Net Specs Specs Chg
03/31/2015 138260 55814 80170 66179 20286 45893 -4428 -24356 4012
04/07/2015 159532 55928 96209 89081 21243 67838 21945 -40281 -15925
04/14/2015 161971 55077 97510 92927 21531 71396 3558 -42433 -2152
04/21/2015 153363 55570 90233 83040 23795 59245 -12151 -34663 7770
04/28/2015 140298 53753 81158 67196 22618 44578 -14667 -27405 7258
05/05/2015 137001 59033 58407 57213 44377 12836 -31742 626 28031

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Com Long Com Short Net Com Com Chg Net Specs Specs Chg
03/31/2015 24049 16443 12412 4473 5776 -1303 -4360 4031 4897
04/07/2015 24920 16950 11172 4489 8929 -4440 -3137 5778 1747
04/14/2015 25176 17081 11078 4579 9134 -4555 -115 6003 225
04/21/2015 26617 18473 9985 4241 11950 -7709 -3154 8488 2485
04/28/2015 28071 18281 8101 5134 15431 -10297 -2588 10180 1692
05/05/2015 28379 19585 10521 4813 13039 -8226 2071 9064 -1116

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Specs Short Com Long Com Short Net Com Com Chg Net Specs Specs Chg
03/31/2015 157688 43289 73578 106671 72784 33887 -11456 -30289 10811
04/07/2015 151072 42185 65110 101214 75811 25403 -8484 -22925 7364
04/14/2015 130501 63521 55160 59830 65310 -5480 -30883 8361 31286
04/21/2015 118074 50343 64018 60891 43780 17111 22591 -13675 -22036
04/28/2015 138497 38003 61394 78510 51737 26773 9662 -23391 -9716
05/05/2015 146418 24046 74162 102349 49406 52943 26170 -50116 -26725

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News

11 years ago
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