Large Currency Speculators cut their US Dollar bullish bets for a 4th week

April 25, 2015

By CountingPips.com

USD net speculator positions declined last week to +$37.87 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators decreased their overall net bullish positions for the US dollar last week for a fourth week and to the lowest level since December.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $37.87 billion as of Tuesday April 21st, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$1.81 billion from the $39.68 billion total long position that was registered on April 14th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The latest data leaves the US dollar speculative level at the lowest level since December 16th when net positions equaled $34.64 billion.

Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the British pound sterling, New Zealand dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar while decreasing weekly bets for just the euro and the Mexican Peso.

Notable Weekly Changes:

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  • The euro bets dropped slightly to -214,645 net contracts after gaining the previous two weeks
  • Japanese yen bets improved for a second week and maintains only a small bearish position (-14,448 contracts)
  • Swiss franc bets improved slightly to remain in a small bullish position of +335 contracts
  • New Zealand dollar positions gained for a sixth week and increased higher into bullish territory (+8,488 contracts)
  • Mexican Peso bets dropped sharply and fell back into bearish territory after one week in bullish territory on April 14th

This latest COT data is through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Chg Specs Long Specs Short Chg Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/17/2015 449508 56329 -4942 250103 7759 12.5 55.6 -193774 -12701
03/24/2015 460950 50148 -6181 271111 21008 10.9 58.8 -220963 -27189
03/31/2015 459746 41709 -8439 268269 -2842 9.1 58.4 -226560 -5597
04/07/2015 441624 39444 -2265 254702 -13567 8.9 57.7 -215258 11302
04/14/2015 453518 45264 5820 257611 2909 10 56.8 -212347 2911
04/21/2015 457610 46821 1557 261466 3855 10.2 57.1 -214645 -2298

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Chg Specs Long Specs Short Chg Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/17/2015 188238 47155 -898 85006 4362 25.1 45.2 -37851 -5260
03/24/2015 178140 35938 -11217 74495 -10511 20.2 41.8 -38557 -706
03/31/2015 182514 35143 -795 71773 -2722 19.3 39.3 -36630 1927
04/07/2015 185219 37641 2498 71942 169 20.3 38.8 -34301 2329
04/14/2015 189513 33993 -3648 70038 -1904 17.9 37 -36045 -1744
04/21/2015 175066 34830 837 64111 -5927 19.9 36.6 -29281 6764

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Chg Specs Long Specs Short Chg Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/17/2015 195913 44496 11598 92550 265 22.7 47.2 -48054 11333
03/24/2015 181026 39156 -5340 85061 -7489 21.6 47 -45905 2149
03/31/2015 177478 44409 5253 68333 -16728 25 38.5 -23924 21981
04/07/2015 189444 53320 8911 77769 9436 28.1 41.1 -24449 -525
04/14/2015 195230 54783 1463 77853 84 28.1 39.9 -23070 1379
04/21/2015 189332 51520 -3263 65968 -11885 27.2 34.8 -14448 8622

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Chg Specs Long Specs Short Chg Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/17/2015 38889 18129 10912 15894 297 46.6 40.9 2235 10615
03/24/2015 36296 12604 -5525 16559 665 34.7 45.6 -3955 -6190
03/31/2015 34149 13679 1075 12973 -3586 40.1 38 706 4661
04/07/2015 33245 12746 -933 12626 -347 38.3 38 120 -586
04/14/2015 33935 12240 -506 12070 -556 36.1 35.6 170 50
04/21/2015 31727 11105 -1135 10770 -1300 35 33.9 335 165

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Chg Specs Long Specs Short Chg Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/17/2015 158576 21001 -1010 53823 -7218 13.2 33.9 -32822 6208
03/24/2015 106731 19193 -1808 51849 -1974 18 48.6 -32656 166
03/31/2015 110447 18771 -422 48389 -3460 17 43.8 -29618 3038
04/07/2015 114881 22081 3310 52100 3711 19.2 45.4 -30019 -401
04/14/2015 118686 23020 939 53598 1498 19.4 45.2 -30578 -559
04/21/2015 126801 33343 10323 60394 6796 26.3 47.6 -27051 3527

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Chg Specs Long Specs Short Chg Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/17/2015 152746 63046 47909 91853 -135 41.3 60.1 -28807 48044
03/24/2015 135693 52079 -10967 80447 -11406 38.4 59.3 -28368 439
03/31/2015 138260 55814 3735 80170 -277 40.4 58 -24356 4012
04/07/2015 159532 55928 114 96209 16039 35.1 60.3 -40281 -15925
04/14/2015 161971 55077 -851 97510 1301 34 60.2 -42433 -2152
04/21/2015 153363 55570 493 90233 -7277 36.2 58.8 -34663 7770

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Chg Specs Long Specs Short Chg Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/17/2015 23317 13117 -230 14258 -1569 56.3 61.1 -1141 1339
03/24/2015 20958 12149 -968 13015 -1243 58 62.1 -866 275
03/31/2015 24049 16443 4294 12412 -603 68.4 51.6 4031 4897
04/07/2015 24920 16950 507 11172 -1240 68 44.8 5778 1747
04/14/2015 25176 17081 131 11078 -94 67.8 44 6003 225
04/21/2015 26617 18473 1392 9985 -1093 69.4 37.5 8488 2485

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Specs Long Chg Specs Long Specs Short Chg Specs Short Pct OI Specs Long Pct OI Specs Short Net Specs Weekly Chg
03/17/2015 135144 23702 -6920 79641 13372 17.5 58.9 -55939 -20292
03/24/2015 150320 35044 11342 76144 -3497 23.3 50.7 -41100 14839
03/31/2015 157688 43289 8245 73578 -2566 27.5 46.7 -30289 10811
04/07/2015 151072 42185 -1104 65110 -8468 27.9 43.1 -22925 7364
04/14/2015 130501 63521 21336 55160 -9950 48.7 42.3 8361 31286
04/21/2015 118074 50343 -13178 64018 8858 42.6 54.2 -13675 -22036

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

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11 years ago
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