By CountingPips.com
Overall Speculative Net US Dollar Contracts
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators cut back on their net bullish positions for the US dollar last week. All the major currencies saw a boost in speculative positions against the US dollar on the week except the euro while the Swiss franc and the New Zealand dollar saw their positions turn bullish.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, decreased their overall net speculative contracts last week to a total of +366,640 contracts as of Tuesday March 31st. This was a weekly change of -45,730 contracts from the total of +412,370 contracts as of Tuesday March 24th.
This total US dollar contracts calculation is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.
The drop in the total US dollar contracts was the biggest weekly decrease since December 16th 2014 when weekly bullish positions fell by -61,880 contracts while the current USD position is also at its lowest level since December.
Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes: Swiss Franc and New Zealand dollar turn slightly bullish against USD
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Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican Peso while decreasing weekly bets for just the euro.
Notable Changes:
- The euro bets declined for a 4th straight week to over -225,000 contracts.
- Japanese yen bets continued to improve for a 3rd straight week and are at the least bearish level since 2012
- Swiss franc bets turned back to very slightly bullish position of +706 contracts
- New Zealand dollar positions rose for a 3rd week and turned into bullish territory (+4,031 contracts) for the first time since September 2014
- Australian dollar bets improved for a 3rd week and are at the least bearish position since September 2014
This latest COT data is through Tuesday March 31st and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.
Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price
EuroFX:
Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/24/2015 | 431217 | 45511 | 223247 | -177736 | 7846 |
| 03/03/2015 | 440733 | 48467 | 220856 | -172389 | 5347 |
| 03/10/2015 | 496465 | 61271 | 242344 | -181073 | -8684 |
| 03/17/2015 | 449508 | 56329 | 250103 | -193774 | -12701 |
| 03/24/2015 | 460950 | 50148 | 271111 | -220963 | -27189 |
| 03/31/2015 | 459746 | 41709 | 268269 | -226560 | -5597 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/24/2015 | 169784 | 46741 | 68611 | -21870 | 6928 |
| 03/03/2015 | 165737 | 44563 | 71471 | -26908 | -5038 |
| 03/10/2015 | 205166 | 48053 | 80644 | -32591 | -5683 |
| 03/17/2015 | 188238 | 47155 | 85006 | -37851 | -5260 |
| 03/24/2015 | 178140 | 35938 | 74495 | -38557 | -706 |
| 03/31/2015 | 182514 | 35143 | 71773 | -36630 | 1927 |
Japanese Yen:
Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/24/2015 | 202438 | 31611 | 79123 | -47512 | 1579 |
| 03/03/2015 | 210611 | 33944 | 86465 | -52521 | -5009 |
| 03/10/2015 | 235089 | 32898 | 92285 | -59387 | -6866 |
| 03/17/2015 | 195913 | 44496 | 92550 | -48054 | 11333 |
| 03/24/2015 | 181026 | 39156 | 85061 | -45905 | 2149 |
| 03/31/2015 | 177478 | 44409 | 68333 | -23924 | 21981 |
Swiss Franc:
Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/24/2015 | 34765 | 5228 | 10313 | -5085 | 959 |
| 03/03/2015 | 40861 | 7027 | 13089 | -6062 | -977 |
| 03/10/2015 | 52384 | 7217 | 15597 | -8380 | -2318 |
| 03/17/2015 | 38889 | 18129 | 15894 | 2235 | 10615 |
| 03/24/2015 | 36296 | 12604 | 16559 | -3955 | -6190 |
| 03/31/2015 | 34149 | 13679 | 12973 | 706 | 4661 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/24/2015 | 118014 | 22423 | 58668 | -36245 | -3403 |
| 03/03/2015 | 121344 | 24332 | 63195 | -38863 | -2618 |
| 03/10/2015 | 146639 | 22011 | 61041 | -39030 | -167 |
| 03/17/2015 | 158576 | 21001 | 53823 | -32822 | 6208 |
| 03/24/2015 | 106731 | 19193 | 51849 | -32656 | 166 |
| 03/31/2015 | 110447 | 18771 | 48389 | -29618 | 3038 |
Australian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/24/2015 | 139805 | 15597 | 78751 | -63154 | -9323 |
| 03/03/2015 | 136841 | 13652 | 75197 | -61545 | 1609 |
| 03/10/2015 | 196534 | 15137 | 91988 | -76851 | -15306 |
| 03/17/2015 | 152746 | 63046 | 91853 | -28807 | 48044 |
| 03/24/2015 | 135693 | 52079 | 80447 | -28368 | 439 |
| 03/31/2015 | 138260 | 55814 | 80170 | -24356 | 4012 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/24/2015 | 27328 | 11107 | 15437 | -4330 | 1423 |
| 03/03/2015 | 27610 | 14597 | 15964 | -1367 | 2963 |
| 03/10/2015 | 29726 | 13347 | 15827 | -2480 | -1113 |
| 03/17/2015 | 23317 | 13117 | 14258 | -1141 | 1339 |
| 03/24/2015 | 20958 | 12149 | 13015 | -866 | 275 |
| 03/31/2015 | 24049 | 16443 | 12412 | 4031 | 4897 |
Mexican Peso:
Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 02/24/2015 | 180506 | 34105 | 82449 | -48344 | -2899 |
| 03/03/2015 | 178057 | 31414 | 74821 | -43407 | 4937 |
| 03/10/2015 | 185039 | 30622 | 66269 | -35647 | 7760 |
| 03/17/2015 | 135144 | 23702 | 79641 | -55939 | -20292 |
| 03/24/2015 | 150320 | 35044 | 76144 | -41100 | 14839 |
| 03/31/2015 | 157688 | 43289 | 73578 | -30289 | 10811 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.
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