Article by ForexTime
The GBP/USD, traded to a peak of 1.4995 as part of a risk off trade which saw stocks tumble and oil prices surge. The backdrop to this is a drop in the dollar’s yield advantage at the 10-year T-note compared to the Gilt since the FOMC last week, although the spread is slightly wider Thursday. Retail sales jumped in February more than expected allowing the pound to continue to gain traction.
UK February retail sales stronger than expected in rising 0.7% month over month and 5.7% year over year, above the expected 0.3% and 4.5% rises and up from -0.3% month over month and 5.4% year over year January outcomes. Sales in the three months to February rose 2.0%, slowing from the three months to December due to slackness in January following robust sales in November and December. The outlook for the sector remains robust, with average household incomes accelerating on the back of trending improvement in the labor market.
Recent US news has been softer than expected allowing the dollar to ease. U.S. durable goods orders on Wednesday dropped 1.4% in February after a 2.0% January gain. Weakness was broad-based. Transportation orders fell 3.5%, with orders excluding transportation down 0.4% after a 0.7% decline previously. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which is considered a proxy for business investment slid 1.4% lower versus January’s -0.1.
The decline in the dollar has also coincided with a rebound in oil prices and a retracement in global stocks. US stocks slumped 1.5% on Wednesday which has been mimicked in Japan and Germany. The technicals on sterling show a currency pair that is consolidating its losses, and poised to move higher. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1.4850. Momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a buy signal. This occurs as the spread (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the 9-day moving average of the spread.
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