BOJ holds policy stance, more confident about exports

February 18, 2015

By CentralBankNews.info
    Japan’s central bank maintained its monetary policy stance and its view of the economy as improving moderately but was slightly more confident about the country’s exports.
    The Bank of Japan (BOJ), which expanded its stimulus measures in January, repeated its recent phrase that the economy was continuing its “moderate recovery trend,” but added that “exports have been picking up,” a slightly more optimistic view than in January when it said that exports had “shown signs of picking up.”
    The BOJ also omitted previous references to the waning impact of the decline in demand that was seen following the April tax increase a sign that it believes demand has now normalized.
    Reflecting the fall in crude oil and energy prices in recent months, the BOJ acknowledged that inflation was lower than expected and said the annual rise in consumer prices was around 0.5 percent, a slight downgrade from January when it said consumer prices were rising by 0.5-1.0 percent.
    Earlier on Wednesday, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he saw no immediate need to expand the bank’s monetary stimulus, underscoring that the temporary impact from lower oil prices would not derail the progress toward reaching the 2.0 percent inflation target.
    But Kuroda also said that the BOJ would not hesitate to adjust its policy if his plan to reach the inflation target was disrupted by a weakening economy and a continuing fall in oil prices.

    The Bank of Japan issued the following statement:

  1. At the Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period:[Note 1]
    The Bank of Japan will conduct money market operations so that the monetary base will increase at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen.
  2. With regard to the asset purchases, the Bank decided, by an 8-1 majority vote, to continue with the following guidelines:[Note 2]
    1. a)  The Bank will purchase Japanese government bonds (JGBs) so that their amount outstanding will increase at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen. With a view to encouraging a decline in interest rates across the entire yield curve, the Bank will conduct purchases in a flexible manner in accordance with financial market conditions. The average remaining maturity of the Bank’s JGB purchases will be about 7-10 years.
    2. b)  The Bank will purchase exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) so that their amounts outstanding will increase at annual paces of about 3 trillion yen and about 90 billion yen respectively.
    3. c)  As for CP and corporate bonds, the Bank will maintain their amounts outstanding at about 2.2 trillion yen and about 3.2 trillion yen respectively.
  3. Japan’s economy has continued its moderate recovery trend. Overseas economies — mainly advanced economies — have been recovering, albeit with a lackluster performance still seen in part. In this situation, exports have been picking up. Business fixed investment has been on a moderate increasing trend as corporate profits have improved. Public investment has more or less leveled off at a high level. Private consumption as a whole has remained resilient against the background of steady improvement in the employment and income situation, although recovery in some areas has been sluggish. Housing investment, which continued to decline following the front-loaded increase prior to the consumption tax hike, has recently started to bottom out. Against the backdrop of these developments in demand both at home and abroad, industrial production has been picking up, due in part to the progress in inventory adjustments. Meanwhile, financial conditions are accommodative. On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food), excluding the direct effects of the consumption tax hike, is around 0.5 percent. Inflation expectations appear to be rising on the whole from a somewhat longer-term perspective.
    4. With regard to the outlook, Japan’s economy is expected to continue its moderate recovery trend. The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to slow for the time being, reflecting the decline in energy prices.
    1. Risks to the outlook include developments in the emerging and commodity-exporting economies, the prospects regarding the debt problem and the risk of low inflation rates being protracted in Europe, and the pace of recovery in the U.S. economy.
    2. Quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) has been exerting its intended effects, and the Bank will continue with QQE, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner. It will examine both upside and downside risks to economic activity and prices, and make adjustments as appropriate.[Note 3]

      [Note 1] Voting for the action: Mr. H. Kuroda, Mr. K. Iwata, Mr. H. Nakaso, Mr. R. Miyao, Mr. Y. Morimoto, Ms. S. Shirai, Mr. K. Ishida, and Mr. T. Sato. Voting against the action: Mr. T. Kiuchi. The member voting against the action considered that the guideline for money market operations before the decision regarding the “Expansion of the Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing” on October 31, 2014 was appropriate.
      [Note 2] Voting for the action: Mr. H. Kuroda, Mr. K. Iwata, Mr. H. Nakaso, Mr. R. Miyao, Mr. Y. Morimoto, Ms. S. Shirai, Mr. K. Ishida, and Mr. T. Sato. Voting against the action: Mr. T. Kiuchi. The member voting against the action considered that the guideline for asset purchases before the decision regarding the “Expansion of the Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing” on October 31, 2014 was appropriate.
      [Note 3] Mr. T. Kiuchi proposed that the Bank will aim to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent in the medium to long term and designate QQE as an intensive measure with a time frame of about two years. The proposal was defeated by an 8-1 majority vote. Voting for the proposal: Mr. T. Kiuchi. Voting against the proposal: Mr. H. Kuroda, Mr. K. Iwata, Mr. H. Nakaso, Mr. R. Miyao, Mr. Y. Morimoto, Ms. S. Shirai, Mr. K. Ishida, and Mr. T. Sato. “

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