Article by ForexTime
The FOMC meeting scheduled for this Tuesday and Wednesday will be the highlights the week. There are several other factors that should keep trading volatile. Data will be of interest with the Advance Q4 GDP report out, along with December durable orders. There are also a slew of earnings reports with almost 30% of the S&P reporting during the coming week.
The FOMC now finds itself between a rock and a hard place after a flurry of central bank activity in recent weeks that has yielded dramatic stimulus measures. Given the dramatic events of late and with ongoing market crosscurrents, the Federal Reserve will be low key with its policy statement. It should retain its newly acquired “patient” terminology, and can finally jettison “considerable time.” Since “patient” would still mean no rate hikes for the next two meetings, that would take April out of play.
Of importance will be the outlook on inflation and whether there’s any mention of concern over further weakness in prices that could suggest a delay to rate liftoff into Q3 or beyond. On the other hand, the Fed is likely to remain upbeat on growth and the labor market.
The question for the markets is whether the FOMC will stand alone among the G7 in its policy approach as it looks to start normalizing policy this year. For credibility’s sake, nothing has changed significantly on the domestic front since the December meeting to alter the path of rate liftoff in 2015, with many on the Committee touting mid-year as the start date.
Sure inflation has continued to soften, but policymakers have told us it’s a transitory phenomenon, and several doves have even suggesting they could hike rates even with inflation below target as long as prices are moving toward the 2% goal. Also, the economy and the labor market have been performing above expectations. Nevertheless, there have been several momentous changes around the world that are leaving the FOMC on relatively tighter footing already and could make Fed doves, of which there are many on the Committee, willing to argue for a delay.
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