Technical Sentiment: Bearish

Key Takeaways

• Slow day due to Bank Holiday in U.S. and Canada;
• USD/CAD formed Lower High, now aiming for a new swing low below 1.1300;
• This bias is expected to remain unchanged at least until Thursday, when Unemployment Claims, JOLTS Job Openings and Federal Budget Balance are due to be released.

Several days without any major events are allowing USD/CAD sellers to push for a temporary correction towards 1.1250.

Technical Analysis

If we zoom out and only observe the large technical landscape, USD/CAD has been in a huge uptrend since late 2012, with a recent acceleration between July and November as the pair climbed to fresh yearly highs. That being said, there have been plenty of corrections on the way up, most of them appearing in a very predictable fashion. Based on a several chart and price action patterns, USD/CAD appears to be in the middle of yet another corrective phase right now.

Last week a bearish Pin bar and a bearish Engulfing bar formed on the Daily timeframe, triggered by economical events at a time when greenback had clearly over-extended itself into overbought territory. Additionally, if we zoom in on 4H charts, we can see a direction change in the swing structure, as USD/CAD is forming lower lows and lower highs. Based on today’s high, formed around 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at 1.1400, we expect traders to push for another low in the coming trading sessions. Possible support targets are located at 1.1300, followed by 1.1240/50 (4H 200-SMA and 61.8% confluence).

This bearish scenario will be invalidated only by a rally above 1.1400, where the uptrend will kick in again, pushing USD/CAD towards new yearly highs (1.1500/50).

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Prepared by Alex, Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets