Article by ForexTime

Oil prices continued to tumble as the risk off trade accelerated into full gear.  Petroleum products have been hammered over the past 6-weeks, as crude oil has shed nearly 13% of its value.  Prices have moved into a new range, which could dominate price action as production continues to rise.  Inventories are on the rise, and as product demand falters ahead of the heating season, prices could continue to see lower levels.

On the inventory front, crude oil continues to see further builds.  According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 361.7 million barrels, U.S. Crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week, while distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

On the demand side of the equation,  gasoline demand averaged 8.7 million barrels per day, down by 1.3% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand averaged 3.8 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down by 0.6% from the same period last year.

Crude prices are attempting to close below the $80 per barrel level with target support seen near the 2012 lows at 77.56.  Weekly momentum is negative with the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index printing in negative territory with a downward sloping trajectory.  The MACD generated a sell signal in July and continues to point to lower prices.  The RSI (relative strength index) moved lower with price action reflecting accelerating negative momentum while printing a reading of 24, which is well below  the oversold trigger level of 30 and could foreshadow a correction.

Article by ForexTime

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