How will Yellen react to this one?

October 3, 2014

Article by ForexTime

The USD is rallying against all of the majors following the news that the US economy added a strong 248,000 jobs to its payroll in September and the US unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level (5.9%) in over six years. The jobs report is impressive and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen now has to make a strong case as to why why the US labour market is not performing to its potential, otherwise investors are going to continue pricing in the Fed transitioning to a hawkish bias sooner rather than later.

In response to this news, the EURUSD has plummeted to the low 1.25s which will please ECB President Mario Draghi who only yesterday repeated that a weaker Eurodollar is important for Eurozone growth. The EU economic sentiment on the whole is unlikely to change any time soon and with EU economic performances continuing to disappoint, this pair could be valued at 1.23 by the time the Fed conclude QE later this month.

The other major mover has been the USDCHF, which is now trading around the 8th July 2013 highs (0.9666). As long as the Euro continues to devalue, speculation will continue that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may decide to devalue its currency, meaning the USDCHF could even be reaching 0.98 when the Federal Reserve meet later this month.

Gold has also continued its gradual slide down and fell below $1200 for the first time this year. I anticipate Gold reaching the 2013 low, $1180, when the Federal Reserve meets in around a fortnight.

Written by Jameel Ahmad, Chief Market Analyst at FXTM.


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Article by ForexTime

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