Forex Speculators trimmed US Dollar bullish positions after 4 weeks of rises

October 26, 2014

By CountingPips.com

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators trimmed their overall US dollar bullish bets last week after four straight weeks of rises that had brought bullish bets to the highest level since May 2013.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $41.20 billion as of Tuesday October 21st, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$1.84 billion from the $43.04 billion total long position that was registered on October 14th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar’s aggregate bullish position remains at a very strong level above +$40 billion and each of the individual tracked currencies have a net bearish position versus the dollar for a third straight week. Last week’s decline brings the USD position off of its highest level since May 28th 2013 when the total long position was +$43.77 billion.

 

Overall Speculative Net Contracts

In terms of total speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts edged lower last week (after five straight weekly increases) to +329,955 contracts as of Tuesday October 21st. This was a change by -1,509 contracts from the total of +331,464 contracts as of Tuesday October 14th. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

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Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes: All currencies have net bearish position versus the USD for 3rd week

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets last week in favor of just the Japanese yen and the New Zealand dollar while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, British pound sterling, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the Mexican Peso.

Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

  • Euro positions fell for a 3rd straight week and to a new lowest level since Sept 9th. The EURUSD exchange rate declined to end the week down by approximately -0.71% and closed below the 1.2700 level
  • British pound sterling positions slightly declined last week for a 3rd week and overall positions remain slightly bearish (-4,485). The GBPUSD spot exchange rate has remained above the 1.6000 level for a 3rd weekly close
  • Japanese yen bets jumped last week and rose for a 3rd week. Yen positions are now at the least bearish level since July
  • Swiss franc bets edged lower last week for a 2nd weekly decline. The Franc positions remain on the bearish side for an eighteenth straight week while the USDCHF exchange rate closed the week above the 0.9500 level
  • Canadian dollar positions declined lower last week and fell for a sixth week with positions at the most bearish level since June 10th. The USDCAD exchange rate ended the week still just hovering above the 1.1200 major level
  • Australian dollar net positions fell for a seventh week last week to a new most bearish Aussie position since March. The AUDUSD finished the week modestly higher (+0.56%) to trade back near the 0.8800 level
  • New Zealand dollar net positions rose ever so slightly last week (+52 contracts), however, positions remain slightly bearish overall. The NZDUSD dipped for the week by approximately -0.85% to end the week below the 0.7900 level
  • Mexican peso positions decreased last week and fell to the most bearish level since February 25th. The peso spec positions have been on the bearish side for four straight weeks

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday October 21st and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/16/2014 397652 79552 216701 -137149 20356
09/23/2014 398937 60654 202619 -141965 -4816
09/30/2014 409986 67030 204555 -137525 4440
10/07/2014 425656 61467 207679 -146212 -8687
10/14/2014 434873 60158 215500 -155342 -9130
10/21/2014 439863 60188 219559 -159371 -4029

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/16/2014 134560 55617 62198 -6581 -33308
09/23/2014 134061 53691 54741 -1050 5531
09/30/2014 132369 54243 50654 3589 4639
10/07/2014 129666 46503 47578 -1075 -4664
10/14/2014 138471 43116 45953 -2837 -1762
10/21/2014 135766 36567 41052 -4485 -1648

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/16/2014 208235 37617 120799 -83182 17491
09/23/2014 222214 28391 133813 -105422 -22240
09/30/2014 239477 29910 150788 -120878 -15456
10/07/2014 223255 24837 137388 -112551 8327
10/14/2014 212420 22839 123986 -101147 11404
10/21/2014 185412 26634 98372 -71738 29409

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/16/2014 54929 12889 24285 -11396 2429
09/23/2014 52124 8354 21729 -13375 -1979
09/30/2014 57223 11998 24555 -12557 818
10/07/2014 60516 15509 27928 -12419 138
10/14/2014 60968 11113 28666 -17553 -5134
10/21/2014 55550 7643 25505 -17862 -309

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/16/2014 110275 37347 29803 7544 -4086
09/23/2014 76530 27673 24609 3064 -4480
09/30/2014 89376 33014 37580 -4566 -7630
10/07/2014 100900 39174 46626 -7452 -2886
10/14/2014 104060 35688 51855 -16167 -8715
10/21/2014 102170 28837 50371 -21534 -5367

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/16/2014 97839 55588 33448 22140 -19089
09/23/2014 105756 47187 38840 8347 -13793
09/30/2014 118488 43193 45210 -2017 -10364
10/07/2014 129561 31601 58087 -26486 -24469
10/14/2014 115941 14367 44638 -30271 -3785
10/21/2014 115985 13951 45460 -31509 -1238

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/16/2014 16050 9814 8694 1120 -8402
09/23/2014 16146 9779 7938 1841 721
09/30/2014 18209 10092 10028 64 -1777
10/07/2014 19214 10052 10152 -100 -164
10/14/2014 21317 9171 11555 -2384 -2284
10/21/2014 21311 8526 10858 -2332 52

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
09/16/2014 134445 69430 47384 22046 -16472
09/23/2014 151319 58278 47774 10504 -11542
09/30/2014 148678 48864 56178 -7314 -17818
10/07/2014 147139 43781 51364 -7583 -269
10/14/2014 139036 39798 45561 -5763 1820
10/21/2014 138193 30087 51211 -21124 -15361

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News

12 years ago
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