Article by ForexTime
The Euro continued to consolidate ahead of Wednesday FOMC meeting, in which the Federal Reserve is expected to terminate its bond purchase program. Durable goods orders are expected to fall 0.5% in September with shipments remaining unchanged. Inventories are expected to grow by 0.5% in September. German import price inflation rose slightly, along with Italian sentiment.
German September import price inflation rose to -1.6% year over year from -1.9% year over year in the August. Prices rose 0.3% month over month, boosted also by a rebound in energy prices, which rose 0.6% month over month. Still, the sharp drop in energy prices over the year continues to keep the headline rate down and excluding energy the annual rate actually moved into positive territory at 0.1% year over year, a sharp rebound from the -1.7% year over year registered in April.
The U.S. 10-year T-note is now yielding around 137 basis points above the equivalent Bund, up from levels near 130 basis points seen earlier last week. The increase in the differential has failed to help the dollar gain traction.
Italian business confidence unexpectedly rose to 96.0 in October, while the September figure was revised up to 95.5 from 95.1 reported initially. The reading for overall economic sentiment meanwhile rose to 89.3 from 86.9 in the previous month. Better than expected numbers, which add to the stabilization seen in PMI numbers, although yesterday’s disappointing German IFO reading highlighted that the risks to the Eurozone growth outlook remain tilted to the downside.
Sweden’s Riksbank cut interest rates to zero from 0.25%. The consensus forecast was for a cut to 0.05%, so the cut to zero was a little more than had been expected. This is the second cut in three months following July’s quarter point chop to 0.25% from 0.5%. The backdrop to this is the threat of deflation. Sweden’s inflation rate has remained stubbornly low, at was 0.2% in the September CPI reading.
Free Reports:
The technical picture shows that the Euro continues to consolidate after falling for most of the 3rd quarter. Momentum has flattened as the currency pair trades just below the 10-day moving average near 1.2725, which is short-term resistance. The relative strength index (RSI) is printing a reading of 47, which is in the middle of the neutral range and reflects consolidation.
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