Article by ForexTime
The Risk-off trade returned to the capital markets on Friday, but failed to infiltrate the currency markets. Stocks were hit after reports that Dr. Craig Spencer of Doctors without Borders returned to NYC and tested positive for Ebola. The dollar has been gaining traction on the back of stronger US treasury yields which have been driving the interest rate differential in favor of the greenback.
Surprisingly European sentiment has been gaining strength in October despite the recent declines in economic activity. The German GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly rose to 8.5 in the November reading, while the October number was revised up to 8.4 from 8.3. It seems the speculation about a downturn in the German, Eurozone economies had less of an impact than initially feared amid a still robust labor market, and while overall economic expectations eased slightly, income expectations improved as well as consumer spending.
On Thursday, the Eurozone October PMI came out stronger than expected, with the manufacturing reading showing an acceleration in activity after a strong rebound in the German reading. Services sentiment remained steady in October, and with the manufacturing PMI rising to 50.7 from 50.3 the composite rose to 52.2 from 52.0, against expectations for a drop in the overall number. German data over the summer seems to have been impacted by the timing of the summer holidays in the German regions and it seems the economy is not quite as weak as feared, although the Eurozone growth engine clearly has been hit by the Russian sanctions.
The EUR/USD is trading below the 10-day moving average near 1.2720. Although momentum is positive, the MACD trajectory is beginning to flatten. The RSI (relative strength index) which is a momentum oscillator that measures overbought and oversold levels, is printing a reading of 43, which is on the lower end of the neutral range and reflects consolidation.
Article by ForexTime
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