By CountingPips.com

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and forex speculators raised their overall US dollar bullish bets last week for a third straight week and over the +$40 billion level for the first time since May 2013.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $40.91 billion as of Tuesday October 7th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$3.55 billion from the $37.36 billion total long position that was registered on September 30th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar’s third straight week of increase pushed the aggregate bullish position to the highest speculative level since May 28th 2013 when the total long position was +$43.77 billion. The dollar’s position is so strong at present that each of the tracked currencies this week have a net bearish position versus the dollar.

Overall Speculative Net Contracts

In terms of total speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts rose for a fourth straight week last week to +313,878 contracts as of Tuesday October 7th. This was a change by +32,674 contracts from the total of +281,204 contracts as of Tuesday September 30th. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes: All currencies have net bearish position versus the USD

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators raised their bets last week in favor of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, British pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

• Euro positions resumed their decline last week although the Euro spec position has not fallen past the September 2nd bearish level of -161,423 contracts which could suggest that there is a short term bottom in place. The EURUSD exchange rate ended the week with almost a 1% rise and above the 1.2600 level

• British pound sterling positions slightly dipped back over to the bearish side last week after a bullish position the week prior. The GBPUSD exchange rate fought back above the 1.6000 level to close out the week with a 0.65% gain
  

• Japanese yen bets increased last week after Yen bets had fallen to the lowest level since January 2014 the previous week. The dollar strength that pushed the USDJPY spot rate to the 110 area cooled off last week and saw the USDJPY end the week below the 108 level for the first time in four weeks

• Swiss franc bets rose slightly again last week although the Franc positions remain on the bearish side for a sixteenth straight week. The USDCHF exchange rate maintains its level around the major 0.9500 threshold

• Canadian dollar positions declined last week for a fourth week and positions are at the most bearish level since June. The USDCAD exchange rate ended the week right at the 1.1200 major level, down approximately 50 pips from the previous week’s close

• Australian dollar net positions sharply deteriorated last week and dropped for a fifth week to a bearish level of -26,486 contracts. This is the most bearish Aussie position since March. The AUDUSD finished the week a touch higher (+.12%) to trade around the 0.8686 level

• New Zealand dollar net positions dipped slightly last week to an overall bearish position (-100 contracts) for the first time since September 2013. The NZDUSD stemmed its decline last week with an increase for the week by approximately +0.66% to end the week around the 0.7814 level

• Mexican peso positions declined slightly last week for a fifth straight week as peso spec positions fell further to the bearish side (-7,583 contracts)

This latest COT data is through Tuesday October 7th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News