Currency Speculators bullish positions advance for 2nd week, new high since June 2013

October 5, 2014

By CountingPips.com

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and forex speculators increased their overall US dollar bullish bets last week for a second straight week and to the highest level since June 2013.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $37.36 billion as of Tuesday September 30th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$1.55 billion from the $35.81 billion total long position that was registered on September 23rd, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The aggregate US dollar bullish position continued to strengthen with the US dollar position trading over +$30 billion for a seventh straight week and the US dollar index reached a new highest level since 2010 with a push above the 86.00 threshold. Last week’s bullish level marked the highest speculative level since June 4th 2013 when bullish positions equaled $39.12 billion.

 

Overall Speculative Net Contracts

In terms of total speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts increased for a third straight week last week to +281,204 contracts as of Tuesday September 30th. This was a change by +43,148 contracts from the total of +238,056 contracts as of Tuesday September 23rd. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

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Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators raised their bets last week in favor of the euro, British pound sterling and the Swiss franc while decreasing weekly bets for the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

  • Euro positions saw a slight gain last week after declining the previous week. The Euro spec position has not fallen past the September 2nd bearish level of -161,423 contracts suggesting that there could be a short term bottom in place. Although, despite the potential bottom in spec positions, the exchange rate continues to decline and test the 1.2500 level
  • British pound sterling positions rose back over to the bullish side last week after two weeks of bearish positions. For September 30th, the GBP is the most bullish currency against the dollar at a small +3,589 contracts
  • Japanese yen bets deteriorated further last week for a 2nd weekly decline. Yen bets are now at the lowest level since January 2014 as dollar strength has pushed the USDJPY exchange toward 110.00
  • Swiss franc bets rose slightly last week as Franc positions continue to be on the bearish side for fifteen straight weeks
  • Canadian dollar positions fell last week for a third week and now positions are on the bearish side (-4,566) for the first time since June. The USDCAD exchange rate traded above the 1.1200 major level last week
  • Australian dollar net positions dropped for a fourth week last week as net bullish positions have tumbled over to the bearish side at -2,017 contracts. This is the first time Aussie positions have been bearish since April
  • New Zealand dollar net positions declined last week to an overall neutral position (+64 contracts). This is the lowest level for NZD contracts in just over a year
  • Mexican peso positions dropped last week for a fourth straight week as peso spec positions fell to the bearish side (-7,314 contracts) for the first time since early August

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday September 30th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/26/2014 402709 53989 204646 -150657 -11832
09/02/2014 419850 59398 220821 -161423 -10766
09/09/2014 484306 59376 216881 -157505 3918
09/16/2014 397652 79552 216701 -137149 20356
09/23/2014 398937 60654 202619 -141965 -4816
09/30/2014 409986 67030 204555 -137525 4440

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/26/2014 233435 71002 55535 15467 2180
09/02/2014 238973 67538 58090 9448 -6019
09/09/2014 256591 81330 54603 26727 17279
09/16/2014 134560 55617 62198 -6581 -33308
09/23/2014 134061 53691 54741 -1050 5531
09/30/2014 132369 54243 50654 3589 4639

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/26/2014 218009 19512 122403 -102891 -15620
09/02/2014 230937 15485 132793 -117308 -14417
09/09/2014 255624 17280 117953 -100673 16635
09/16/2014 208235 37617 120799 -83182 17491
09/23/2014 222214 28391 133813 -105422 -22240
09/30/2014 239477 29910 150788 -120878 -15456

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/26/2014 53761 7466 20505 -13039 2453
09/02/2014 60436 9166 22333 -13167 -128
09/09/2014 77317 9856 23681 -13825 -658
09/16/2014 54929 12889 24285 -11396 2429
09/23/2014 52124 8354 21729 -13375 -1979
09/30/2014 57223 11998 24555 -12557 818

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/26/2014 108441 38522 32859 5663 -1618
09/02/2014 105984 35333 26142 9191 3528
09/09/2014 102951 33400 21770 11630 2439
09/16/2014 110275 37347 29803 7544 -4086
09/23/2014 76530 27673 24609 3064 -4480
09/30/2014 89376 33014 37580 -4566 -7630

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/26/2014 107819 71658 29720 41938 5364
09/02/2014 114146 77050 28003 49047 7109
09/09/2014 126831 73321 32092 41229 -7818
09/16/2014 97839 55588 33448 22140 -19089
09/23/2014 105756 47187 38840 8347 -13793
09/30/2014 118488 43193 45210 -2017 -10364

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/26/2014 23619 16405 4564 11841 -191
09/02/2014 23319 15623 5451 10172 -1669
09/09/2014 24920 14369 4847 9522 -650
09/16/2014 16050 9814 8694 1120 -8402
09/23/2014 16146 9779 7938 1841 721
09/30/2014 18209 10092 10028 64 -1777

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/26/2014 141665 71680 35010 36670 24263
09/02/2014 144255 75444 36280 39164 2494
09/09/2014 155265 71021 32503 38518 -646
09/16/2014 134445 69430 47384 22046 -16472
09/23/2014 151319 58278 47774 10504 -11542
09/30/2014 148678 48864 56178 -7314 -17818

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News

12 years ago
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