Large Currency Speculators pushed their bullish positions higher last week

September 27, 2014

By CountingPips.com

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and forex speculators added to their overall US dollar bullish bets last week after two weeks of decreases.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $35.81 billion as of Tuesday September 23rd, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$4.39 billion from the $31.42 billion total long position that was registered on September 16th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The aggregate US dollar position remains strongly bullish with the US dollar position trading over +$30 billion for six straight weeks and being at the second highest level since June of 2013. The US dollar index, meanwhile, continued its uptrend to trade over the 85.00 threshold later in the week.

 

Overall Speculative Net Contracts

In terms of total speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts rose sharply last week to +238,056 contracts as of Tuesday September 23rd. This was a change by +52,598 contracts from the total of +185,458 contracts as of Tuesday September 16th. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

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Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators raised their bets last week in favor of the British pound sterling and the New Zealand dollar while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso.

Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

  • Euro positions declined last week after rebounding for two straight weeks. The Euro spec position continues to remain very bearish while the EURUSD exchange rate ended the week under the 1.2700 level
  • British pound sterling positions remained on the bearish side last week for a second week, although a small bearish position (-1,050). Pound sterling contracts failed to rebound strongly after the Scottish independence vote failed
  • Japanese yen bets fell back last week after gaining for the previous two weeks. Yen bets are back over -100,000 contracts as the USDJPY has surged higher behind strong USD strength
  • Swiss franc bets declined slightly last week as Franc positions have now been on the bearish side for fourteen straight weeks
  • Canadian dollar positions decreased last week for a second week and now positions are at an almost neutral level (+3,064 contracts). The USDCAD exchange rate traded higher above the 1.1100 major level last week for the first time since early 2014
  • Australian dollar net positions fell for a third week last week as net bullish positions have eroded to just +8,347 contracts. The AUDUSD pair strongly declined again last week to close the week just above the 0.8750 major level
  • New Zealand dollar net positions edged higher after falling for seven straight weeks as positions (+1,841 contracts) hover just above neutral and negative territory
  • Mexican peso positions declined last week for a third straight week as peso spec positions dropped to the lowest level in a month (+10,504 contracts)

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday September 23rd and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/19/2014 396460 56774 195599 -138825 -12808
08/26/2014 402709 53989 204646 -150657 -11832
09/02/2014 419850 59398 220821 -161423 -10766
09/09/2014 484306 59376 216881 -157505 3918
09/16/2014 397652 79552 216701 -137149 20356
09/23/2014 398937 60654 202619 -141965 -4816

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/19/2014 237291 72230 58943 13287 -5512
08/26/2014 233435 71002 55535 15467 2180
09/02/2014 238973 67538 58090 9448 -6019
09/09/2014 256591 81330 54603 26727 17279
09/16/2014 134560 55617 62198 -6581 -33308
09/23/2014 134061 53691 54741 -1050 5531

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/19/2014 203180 17976 105247 -87271 -6174
08/26/2014 218009 19512 122403 -102891 -15620
09/02/2014 230937 15485 132793 -117308 -14417
09/09/2014 255624 17280 117953 -100673 16635
09/16/2014 208235 37617 120799 -83182 17491
09/23/2014 222214 28391 133813 -105422 -22240

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/19/2014 50414 6174 21666 -15492 1867
08/26/2014 53761 7466 20505 -13039 2453
09/02/2014 60436 9166 22333 -13167 -128
09/09/2014 77317 9856 23681 -13825 -658
09/16/2014 54929 12889 24285 -11396 2429
09/23/2014 52124 8354 21729 -13375 -1979

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/19/2014 113301 41844 34563 7281 -10717
08/26/2014 108441 38522 32859 5663 -1618
09/02/2014 105984 35333 26142 9191 3528
09/09/2014 102951 33400 21770 11630 2439
09/16/2014 110275 37347 29803 7544 -4086
09/23/2014 76530 27673 24609 3064 -4480

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/19/2014 103432 65747 29173 36574 7028
08/26/2014 107819 71658 29720 41938 5364
09/02/2014 114146 77050 28003 49047 7109
09/09/2014 126831 73321 32092 41229 -7818
09/16/2014 97839 55588 33448 22140 -19089
09/23/2014 105756 47187 38840 8347 -13793

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/19/2014 24048 16796 4764 12032 -1397
08/26/2014 23619 16405 4564 11841 -191
09/02/2014 23319 15623 5451 10172 -1669
09/09/2014 24920 14369 4847 9522 -650
09/16/2014 16050 9814 8694 1120 -8402
09/23/2014 16146 9779 7938 1841 721

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/19/2014 141175 56207 43800 12407 12448
08/26/2014 141665 71680 35010 36670 24263
09/02/2014 144255 75444 36280 39164 2494
09/09/2014 155265 71021 32503 38518 -646
09/16/2014 134445 69430 47384 22046 -16472
09/23/2014 151319 58278 47774 10504 -11542

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News

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