Large Currency Speculators bullish positions edged slightly lower last week

September 21, 2014

By CountingPips.com

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and forex speculators slightly pulled back on their overall US dollar bullish bets last week for a second straight week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $31.42 billion as of Tuesday September 16th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of just -$0.21 billion from the $31.63 billion total long position that was registered on September 9th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The aggregate US dollar position remains strongly bullish with the US dollar position trading over +$30 billion for five straight weeks. The US dollar index, meanwhile, continued to trade over the 84.00 threshold for a second week.

 

Overall Speculative Net Contracts

In terms of total speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts advanced last week to +185,458 contracts as of Tuesday September 16th. This was a change by +41,081 contracts from the total of +144,377 contracts as of Tuesday September 9th. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Free Reports:

Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter





Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.




 

Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators raised their bets last week in favor of the euro, Japanese yen and the Swiss franc while decreasing weekly bets for the British pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

  • Euro positions advanced rather sharply last week (+20,356) and gained for a 2nd week. The Euro spec position remains very bearish while the EURUSD exchange rate is now trading under the 1.2850 level
  • British pound sterling positions fell over to the bearish side last week for the first time since November 2013 as the data is from before the Scottish independence vote on Sept 18th. Now that the vote for independence was unsuccessful, there could be a bullish surge in the GBP bets
  • Japanese yen bets gained last week (+17,491) for a second week. Yen bets came back to their best level since August 12th although remain in very bearish territory
  • Swiss franc bets gained last week after two weeks of decreases. Franc positions have been on the bearish side for thirteen straight weeks
  • Canadian dollar positions decreased last week after two weeks of gains. The  USDCAD exchange rate remains at a major crossroads near the 1.1000 major level
  • Australian dollar net positions fell sharply (-19,089) last week and dropped to the lowest level since June. The AUDUSD pair also fell strongly last week to close the week just below the 0.9000 major level
  • New Zealand dollar net positions declined for a seventh straight week as positions fell to the lowest level in a year
  • Mexican peso positions fell last week for a second straight week as peso spec positions dropped below +30,000 contracts for the first time in four weeks

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/12/2014 376424 51596 177613 -126017 2730
08/19/2014 396460 56774 195599 -138825 -12808
08/26/2014 402709 53989 204646 -150657 -11832
09/02/2014 419850 59398 220821 -161423 -10766
09/09/2014 484306 59376 216881 -157505 3918
09/16/2014 397652 79552 216701 -137149 20356

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/12/2014 223719 65348 46549 18799 6678
08/19/2014 237291 72230 58943 13287 -5512
08/26/2014 233435 71002 55535 15467 2180
09/02/2014 238973 67538 58090 9448 -6019
09/09/2014 256591 81330 54603 26727 17279
09/16/2014 134560 55617 62198 -6581 -33308

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/12/2014 192140 12518 93615 -81097 14302
08/19/2014 203180 17976 105247 -87271 -6174
08/26/2014 218009 19512 122403 -102891 -15620
09/02/2014 230937 15485 132793 -117308 -14417
09/09/2014 255624 17280 117953 -100673 16635
09/16/2014 208235 37617 120799 -83182 17491

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/12/2014 51981 5247 22606 -17359 1494
08/19/2014 50414 6174 21666 -15492 1867
08/26/2014 53761 7466 20505 -13039 2453
09/02/2014 60436 9166 22333 -13167 -128
09/09/2014 77317 9856 23681 -13825 -658
09/16/2014 54929 12889 24285 -11396 2429

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/12/2014 108979 44053 26055 17998 -3457
08/19/2014 113301 41844 34563 7281 -10717
08/26/2014 108441 38522 32859 5663 -1618
09/02/2014 105984 35333 26142 9191 3528
09/09/2014 102951 33400 21770 11630 2439
09/16/2014 110275 37347 29803 7544 -4086

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/12/2014 94030 54691 25145 29546 -3754
08/19/2014 103432 65747 29173 36574 7028
08/26/2014 107819 71658 29720 41938 5364
09/02/2014 114146 77050 28003 49047 7109
09/09/2014 126831 73321 32092 41229 -7818
09/16/2014 97839 55588 33448 22140 -19089

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/12/2014 25214 17913 4484 13429 -1071
08/19/2014 24048 16796 4764 12032 -1397
08/26/2014 23619 16405 4564 11841 -191
09/02/2014 23319 15623 5451 10172 -1669
09/09/2014 24920 14369 4847 9522 -650
09/16/2014 16050 9814 8694 1120 -8402

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
08/12/2014 154694 51933 51974 -41 -32474
08/19/2014 141175 56207 43800 12407 12448
08/26/2014 141665 71680 35010 36670 24263
09/02/2014 144255 75444 36280 39164 2494
09/09/2014 155265 71021 32503 38518 -646
09/16/2014 134445 69430 47384 22046 -16472

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News

12 years ago
InvestMacro

InvestMacro is a finance website dedicated to helping investors make better informed decisions through educational content and products