Currency Speculators boosted US Dollar bets last week to highest level since June 2013

August 23, 2014

By CountingPips.com

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and speculators boosted their bullish bets in favor of the US dollar last week to the highest dollar amount since June 2013.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $30.4 billion as of Tuesday August 19th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$3.4 billion from the $27.0 billion total long position that was registered on August 12th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The aggregate US dollar bullish position is now at the highest level since June 4th 2013 when speculators were long by $39.12 billion and the US dollar index was trading at approximately at 82.77.

Overall Speculative Net Contracts

In terms of total speculative contracts, overall dollar contracts rose last week to +160,007 contracts as of Tuesday August 19th. This was a change by +15,265 contracts from the total of +144,742 contracts as of Tuesday August 12th. The total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

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Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators raised their bets last week in favor of the Swiss franc, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar.

Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:

  • Euro positions dropped last week for the fifth time out of the last six weeks and to the lowest level since July 31 2012 when positions equaled -138,994 contracts
  • British pound sterling positions fell after rising the previous week. The pound speculative contracts have now fallen for six out of the last seven weeks
  • Japanese yen bets dropped last week (-6,174) after an advance the previous week. Yen bets have declined three out of the last four weeks
  • Swiss franc bets edged slightly higher for a second consecutive week. Franc positions have been on the bearish side for nine straight weeks
  • Canadian dollar positions declined for a third straight week and fell back to the lowest position since July 1st
  • Australian dollar net positions rose last week after falling for two weeks. Aussie long positions bounced back over the +30,000 contracts threshold as the exchange rate tested 0.9300 last week
  • New Zealand dollar net positions edged slightly lower last week for a third straight week and to the lowest level since July 1st
  • Mexican peso positions rebounded modestly last week after falling sharply for two straight weeks by over -30,000 contracts. Positions are now back in slightly bullish territory (+12,448 contracts) after falling into a bearish position the week before

This latest COT data is through Tuesday August 19th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/15/2014 310661 59506 122352 -62846 -3581
07/22/2014 339706 58142 146965 -88823 -25977
07/29/2014 356865 56562 164637 -108075 -19252
08/05/2014 379004 55179 183926 -128747 -20672
08/12/2014 376424 51596 177613 -126017 2730
08/19/2014 396460 56774 195599 -138825 -12808

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/15/2014 255115 85983 47213 38770 -2869
07/22/2014 241155 71792 44295 27497 -11273
07/29/2014 237411 75370 50460 24910 -2587
08/05/2014 230801 66437 54316 12121 -12789
08/12/2014 223719 65348 46549 18799 6678
08/19/2014 237291 72230 58943 13287 -5512

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/15/2014 155127 8385 71333 -62948 3427
07/22/2014 162029 11979 65895 -53916 9032
07/29/2014 172210 7828 80897 -73069 -19153
08/05/2014 192906 9896 105295 -95399 -22330
08/12/2014 192140 12518 93615 -81097 14302
08/19/2014 203180 17976 105247 -87271 -6174

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/15/2014 35007 8799 15061 -6262 551
07/22/2014 38359 9642 17022 -7380 -1118
07/29/2014 44022 8665 20429 -11764 -4384
08/05/2014 57238 9247 28100 -18853 -7089
08/12/2014 51981 5247 22606 -17359 1494
08/19/2014 50414 6174 21666 -15492 1867

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/15/2014 129787 60353 44732 15621 5326
07/22/2014 129188 62078 41497 20581 4960
07/29/2014 122619 56459 33768 22691 2110
08/05/2014 115261 48944 27489 21455 -1236
08/12/2014 108979 44053 26055 17998 -3457
08/19/2014 113301 41844 34563 7281 -10717

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/15/2014 105209 70881 31138 39743 3140
07/22/2014 109341 72170 33377 38793 -950
07/29/2014 106836 69348 29742 39606 813
08/05/2014 98196 60860 27560 33300 -6306
08/12/2014 94030 54691 25145 29546 -3754
08/19/2014 103432 65747 29173 36574 7028

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/15/2014 32879 26570 11117 15453 1037
07/22/2014 32728 26028 10896 15132 -321
07/29/2014 30531 23552 8263 15289 157
08/05/2014 25603 18949 4449 14500 -789
08/12/2014 25214 17913 4484 13429 -1071
08/19/2014 24048 16796 4764 12032 -1397

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
07/15/2014 131108 86707 17070 69637 826
07/22/2014 142254 98823 19689 79134 9497
07/29/2014 145184 100551 23436 77115 -2019
08/05/2014 143236 77535 45102 32433 -44682
08/12/2014 154694 51933 51974 -41 -32474
08/19/2014 141175 56207 43800 12407 12448

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News

12 years ago
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