Shares of Newcrest Mining [ASX:NCM] continued their volatile run, rising 4.04%. Shares closed at $10.81 on Friday.
Newcrest Mining is Australia’s largest gold producer, and a top five global gold company by output. It owns a portfolio of assets including the world class Cadia Valley mine. Cadia will be Australia’s largest underground mine and one of the largest in the world.
After getting a slap on the wrist by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission for providing confidential information to analysts, Newcrest’s share price remains on a volatile run.
Newcrest shares bounced today after the gold price increased US$42.80, or 3.4%, to US$1320.30 per ounce overnight.
Production issues appear to be bottoming out. Production upside is significant with Cadia East and Lihir expansions due to come online in the medium term.
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In regards to next financial year’s production, Lihir should be similar to 2014, which is good news for investors. Newcrest has adopted significant mine change plans at Lihir over the past couple of years as it focuses on generating free cash flow. As such, the company is processing predominately stockpiles. It plans to do this until the gold price materially turns around.
Newcrest expects Caria Valley production to be lower due to a decline in ore grades next year. Nonetheless, Caria East production is ramping up and should be higher in 2016.
As mentioned above, Newcrest is focusing on producing free cash flow. This is because it wants to reduce its gearing ratio and become a shareholder friendlier company. As such, Newcrest has reduced its capital costs by over 70% since 2012. Next year, capital costs are due to come in at roughly $720 million.
Nonetheless with a US$1.7 billion dollar payment due in 2016, the gold price must remain above its breakeven price of roughly US$ 1,270 (AU$1,350). Overall, Newcrest’s balance sheet remains 30.5% geared at US$4.5 billion.
The volatile gold price remains the biggest risk for punters.
Jason Stevenson+
Resources Analyst, Diggers and Drillers