Large COT Currency Speculators increased bullish bets for 5th straight week

June 15, 2014

By CountingPips.com

The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and speculators continued to increase their US dollar bullish bets for the fifth straight week last week and to the highest standing since February.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $15.95 billion as of Tuesday June 10th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$4.56 billion from the $11.39 billion total long position that was registered on June 3rd, according to Reuters that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar has continued to be on the bullish side for a fifth consecutive week and the aggregate USD position is now at the highest level since February 18th when total bullish contracts equaled +$16.28 billion.

Overall changes for the week in the major currencies showed that large speculators bet in favor of the British pound sterling, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso while there were weekly declines for the euro, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen and the New Zealand dollar.

 

Notable changes:

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  • Euro positions dropped for the 5th straight week to the lowest overall level since May 2013
  • British pound sterling positions rose slightly and for the 3rd out of last 4 weeks as net bullish positions closed above +35,000 contracts
  • Japanese yen bearish positions rose for 3rd week and pushed contracts to a new high bearish level since April
  • Swiss franc positions fell slightly and remained on the bearish side for 3rd week
  • Australian dollar positions continued their improvement and moved to the new highest bullish position since April 2013
  • Mexican peso positions rose for a fifth straight week and to best level since May 2013 as bullish positions close in on +100,000 contracts

 

* All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro. Please see charts and data below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/06/2014 277013 110673 78122 32551 6817
05/13/2014 268142 84383 86558 -2175 -34726
05/20/2014 268199 75013 84233 -9220 -7045
05/27/2014 274051 70753 87386 -16633 -7413
06/03/2014 280747 57109 90134 -33025 -16392
06/10/2014 331636 43739 100924 -57185 -24160

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/06/2014 241264 83794 43148 40646 -3588
05/13/2014 230333 71168 39413 31755 -8891
05/20/2014 237637 80009 46919 33090 1335
05/27/2014 238440 78438 43134 35304 2214
06/03/2014 239604 79476 44502 34974 -330
06/10/2014 271602 85202 49360 35842 868

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/06/2014 167093 20381 81109 -60728 9624
05/13/2014 164707 17471 82178 -64707 -3979
05/20/2014 164819 18681 72468 -53787 10920
05/27/2014 162820 16999 76035 -59036 -5249
06/03/2014 171804 12578 86796 -74218 -15182
06/10/2014 201094 11893 94055 -82162 -7944

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/06/2014 55538 25102 11918 13184 -519
05/13/2014 45282 16951 10145 6806 -6378
05/20/2014 48803 17387 12368 5019 -1787
05/27/2014 48284 11559 15431 -3872 -8891
06/03/2014 48936 11907 13919 -2012 1860
06/10/2014 52445 9615 12645 -3030 -1018

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/06/2014 122287 28044 59644 -31600 -1305
05/13/2014 121632 26986 53023 -26037 5563
05/20/2014 121268 26500 53034 -26534 -497
05/27/2014 129989 32581 54391 -21810 4724
06/03/2014 130275 32519 55250 -22731 -921
06/10/2014 125832 30303 54411 -24108 -1377

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/06/2014 104936 44805 36168 8637 -2069
05/13/2014 107302 50147 33020 17127 8490
05/20/2014 107613 50130 30668 19462 2335
05/27/2014 109139 52071 36223 15848 -3614
06/03/2014 110911 56811 35284 21527 5679
06/10/2014 128984 62141 33894 28247 6720

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/06/2014 33025 25027 4334 20693 2213
05/13/2014 30932 23806 4466 19340 -1353
05/20/2014 30556 22486 4892 17594 -1746
05/27/2014 30649 22034 4090 17944 350
06/03/2014 30066 22400 4869 17531 -413
06/10/2014 32946 20401 3546 16855 -676

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/06/2014 146455 67663 19779 47884 -1734
05/13/2014 149209 86137 17515 68622 20738
05/20/2014 154795 92730 15464 77266 8644
05/27/2014 157626 101808 18507 83301 6035
06/03/2014 162647 105666 19650 86016 2715
06/10/2014 200202 106566 16363 90203 4187

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News

12 years ago
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