Forex: COT Currency Speculators US Dollar bets decline for 1st time in 6 weeks

June 21, 2014

By CountingPips.com

The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and speculators decreased their US dollar bullish bets after a run of five straight weekly increases.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $12.19 billion as of Tuesday June 17th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$3.76 billion from the $15.95 billion total long position that was registered on June 10th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The aggregate US dollar position, despite the weekly decline, remained on the bullish side for a sixth consecutive week. The dollar position had fallen over to a bearish position on April 15th and remained there for four weeks into May before turning bullish on May 13th.

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators bet in favor of the British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar while there were weekly decreases for the euro, Australian dollar, Mexican peso and the New Zealand dollar.

 

Notable changes:

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  • Euro positions continued to decline for a sixth week to the lowest overall level since May 28th 2013
  • British pound sterling positions increased sharply and net bullish positions rose to the highest level of the year
  • Japanese yen short positions declined after 3 weeks of rising short positions, USDJPY currency pair has been ranging around the 102 level
  • Swiss franc positions rebounded slightly to an overall bullish position for the first time in four weeks
  • Australian dollar net positions fell slightly for the week after impressive run up that has seen just four weekly declines since March 11th

 

* All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro. Please see charts and data below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/13/2014 268142 84383 86558 -2175 -34726
05/20/2014 268199 75013 84233 -9220 -7045
05/27/2014 274051 70753 87386 -16633 -7413
06/03/2014 280747 57109 90134 -33025 -16392
06/10/2014 331636 43739 100924 -57185 -24160
06/17/2014 285489 51405 113240 -61835 -4650

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/13/2014 230333 71168 39413 31755 -8891
05/20/2014 237637 80009 46919 33090 1335
05/27/2014 238440 78438 43134 35304 2214
06/03/2014 239604 79476 44502 34974 -330
06/10/2014 271602 85202 49360 35842 868
06/17/2014 250231 100434 47838 52596 16754

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/13/2014 164707 17471 82178 -64707 -3979
05/20/2014 164819 18681 72468 -53787 10920
05/27/2014 162820 16999 76035 -59036 -5249
06/03/2014 171804 12578 86796 -74218 -15182
06/10/2014 201094 11893 94055 -82162 -7944
06/17/2014 153007 17832 85870 -68038 14124

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/13/2014 45282 16951 10145 6806 -6378
05/20/2014 48803 17387 12368 5019 -1787
05/27/2014 48284 11559 15431 -3872 -8891
06/03/2014 48936 11907 13919 -2012 1860
06/10/2014 52445 9615 12645 -3030 -1018
06/17/2014 32259 15296 11776 3520 6550

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/13/2014 121632 26986 53023 -26037 5563
05/20/2014 121268 26500 53034 -26534 -497
05/27/2014 129989 32581 54391 -21810 4724
06/03/2014 130275 32519 55250 -22731 -921
06/10/2014 125832 30303 54411 -24108 -1377
06/17/2014 132209 34582 56115 -21533 2575

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/13/2014 107302 50147 33020 17127 8490
05/20/2014 107613 50130 30668 19462 2335
05/27/2014 109139 52071 36223 15848 -3614
06/03/2014 110911 56811 35284 21527 5679
06/10/2014 128984 62141 33894 28247 6720
06/17/2014 99400 61078 34049 27029 -1218

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/13/2014 30932 23806 4466 19340 -1353
05/20/2014 30556 22486 4892 17594 -1746
05/27/2014 30649 22034 4090 17944 350
06/03/2014 30066 22400 4869 17531 -413
06/10/2014 32946 20401 3546 16855 -676
06/17/2014 28467 21671 17938 3733 -13122

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
05/13/2014 149209 86137 17515 68622 20738
05/20/2014 154795 92730 15464 77266 8644
05/27/2014 157626 101808 18507 83301 6035
06/03/2014 162647 105666 19650 86016 2715
06/10/2014 200202 106566 16363 90203 4187
06/17/2014 135017 91227 22152 69075 -21128

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News

12 years ago
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