By IFCMarkets
Good afternoon, dear traders. Today at 10:30 (CET) we expect the publication of the two key indicators of the British economy – changes in the number of jobless claims Claimant Count Change and the Unemployment Rate. Both indicators characterize the employment in the United Kingdom. However, from our point of view, the unemployment rate has a greater and longer-term impact, since it is based on a larger volume of statistical sampling. This is a monthly indicator, which is released by the National Statistics and indicates the percentage of the unemployed and working-age population of Great Britain. People who have not found a job within the last 3 months are taken into account. The index value allows us to characterize the domestic demand in the country and the economy appeal for investors.
The UK integration into the EU economy allows us to consider the release of this indicator as a fundamental factor for all the European currencies. Today the indicator decline is predicted from 6.8% to 6.7%, but if the forecast is too overestimated, the weakening of the European currencies is expected, including the main currency – Euro.
Here we consider the EUR/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. The price crossed the H4 resistance line upwards simultaneously with the formation of the “absorption” bullish candlestick pattern – marked in yellow rectangle on the chart. Since the RSI-Bars oscillator does not confirm the beginning of a new upward trend, we can only talk about the temporary correction. It is evident that the bearish mood is confirmed by the PivotPoints channel direction and the ParabolicSAR trend indicator. We expect the correction to be completed reaching the PivotPoints signal line or, in the worst case scenario, the resistance fractal located at 1.36160. Then wait for the continuation of the bearish festival.
Pending sell order is preliminary placed below the Bill Williams fractal support at 1.35133, especially as it coincides with the historic value of the ParabolicSAR trend indicator and the first PivotPoints support. Certainly, there is a chance that after the correction a new fractal minimum would be formed. In this case, the order opening level should be shifted. Stop loss can be chosen at the last fractal high or slightly above the PivotPoints signal line at 1.36160. Opening a position, it is recommended to move the Stop loss after the parabolic values every 4 hours after the order execution. Thus, we can optimize the return/risk ratio in our favor in the process of changing market conditions. If you decide to take a break from the market, the automatic Trailing Stop can be placed, taking the distance between the two previous fractal peaks into account. This distance is indicated by the double arrow on the chart above.
| Direction | down |
| Position opening | below 1.35133 |
| Stop loss | above 1.36160 |
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