Technical Sentiment: Bullish
Key Takeaways
Even with the recent sell-off, AUD/USD remains in decent shape as long as the decline does not extend below the 0.9315-25 support area. The longer term direction will be decided tomorrow, as traders will be anxiously waiting for the FOMC Statement and the adjacent releases.
Technical Analysis
With AUD/USD trading at 0.9337 and immediate support located between 0.9315-25, the pair might be setting the scene for a serious bullish bounce tomorrow. From a swing configuration perspective, the pair maintains a bullish bias due to the Higher High on 12th June, consequently the location of a probable Higher Low will be crucial for any bullish scenarios.
The support area at 0.9315-25 is marked by a huge cluster of indicators. First and foremost, this area has been a tried and tested price pivot zone since April. On the Daily chart the 100-Day Moving Average is backing up this area, while on the lower 4H timeframe the 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages are also situated here. Finally, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level between 0.9028 and 0.9436 is also priced situated at 0.9322.
Free Reports:
A bullish bounce starting from the support confluence will pave the way for another rally towards 10th April high of 0.9460. A new Higher High, near the 0.9526 pivot zone from the second half of 2013, is also a valid extension of this bullish scenario.
Every long trade idea crumbles if AUD/USD continues the sell-off and stabilizes below 0.9315. This would open the way to lower support levels, first to 0.9250 and ultimately back to 0.9200 where the 100-Day and 200-Day SMA strengthen the next crucial pivot zone.
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Prepared by Alex Z., Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets
