{"id":46758,"date":"2014-01-27T05:34:53","date_gmt":"2014-01-27T10:34:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=46758"},"modified":"2014-01-27T05:34:53","modified_gmt":"2014-01-27T10:34:53","slug":"where-are-the-facebook-bodies-buried","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2014\/01\/27\/where-are-the-facebook-bodies-buried\/","title":{"rendered":"Where Are the Facebook Bodies Buried?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By WallStreetDaily.com<\/u><\/a> \"Where<\/p>\n

Way back on July 19, 2012, I told readers to avoid Facebook’s<\/strong><\/a> (FB<\/a>) stock “like the plague.”<\/p>\n

Apparently, I was on to something.<\/p>\n

Now, I’m not talking about the fact that – within weeks of my stern warning – shares dropped 40% to hit an all-time low.<\/p>\n

I’m talking about the latest research out of Princeton<\/a>, which went viral last week.<\/p>\n

“Ideas, like diseases,” wrote John Cannarella and Joshua A. Spechler, “have been shown to spread infectiously between people before eventually dying out.”<\/p>\n

Or, more simply, infectious diseases like the bubonic plague and social networks like MySpace behave in similar ways. Both spread rapidly and then die out quickly.<\/p>\n

The implication?<\/p>\n

Based on the “adoption and abandonment dynamics” of social networks, the researchers predict that Facebook “will undergo a rapid decline in the coming years, losing 80% of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017.”<\/p>\n

\"\"
\nNewsflash: Forget waiting until 2015; the decline is already<\/em> unfolding. And that, my loyal readers, means it’s high time for us to position our portfolios to profit from the impending doom.<\/p>\n

Debunking Princeton… or Not!<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

Obviously, the dire predictions from the Princeton researchers didn’t sit well with Facebook executives. Before long, Facebook’s data scientist, Mike Develin, launched a tongue-in-cheek rebuttal<\/a>. In short, by using the same “robust methodology” as the Princetonians, Develin declared (emphasis added), “Our research unequivocally demonstrated that Princeton<\/em> may be in danger of disappearing entirely.”<\/p>\n

Good one!<\/p>\n

But I’m afraid that even if Develin is right – and there’s only a flimsy connection between infectious diseases and social networks – there’s no refuting these cold, hard usage facts from iStrategy.<\/p>\n

\"\"
\nSince 2011, they found that 4,292,080 high school users and 6,948,848 college-aged users went missing on Facebook. That’s a total body count in excess of 11.2 million.<\/p>\n

According to another study, funded by the European Union, young Facebook users aren’t “just on the slide… [They’re] basically dead and buried.”<\/p>\n

Fear not. Their bodies aren’t actually<\/em> buried anywhere. They’ve just migrated to new social networks – like Snapchat, Twitter<\/strong> (TWTR<\/a>), Instagram and WhatsApp. (Whisper.sh could be their next destination.)<\/p>\n

Heck, even President Obama notices it. He recently remarked in the presence of The Atlantic’s <\/em>Robinson Meyer that “it seems like they don’t use Facebook anymore.”<\/p>\n

No sir, they don’t.<\/p>\n

And Facebook is smart enough to recognize its diminishing relevance, too. That’s why management keeps trying to emulate wildly popular features from other social networks, like incorporating #hashtags and a “trending” section (a la Twitter).<\/p>\n

It’s all for the sake of preserving engagement – a critical ingredient for a business model that relies so heavily on serving up advertising to users.<\/p>\n

Facebook is obviously not afraid to take more drastic defensive measures, either. Like simply buying the next up-and-coming social network. You’ll recall, Facebook scooped up Instagram for $1 billion in 2012.<\/p>\n

But that tactic doesn’t appear to be working anymore. Late last year, Snapchat spurned a $3-billion offer from Mark Zuckerberg.<\/p>\n

Bottom line: Come February, Facebook turns 10. In social network years, that’s an eternity<\/em>. And while it’s in no immediate danger of extinction, signs of a mass exodus are, indeed, materializing.<\/p>\n

“Facebook fatigue” is setting in, if you will. As the youngsters continue to flee for newer, more novel social networks, it’s only a matter of time before the underlying business fundamentals – and, in turn, the stock – begins to suffer.<\/p>\n

If I were you, I’d make a low-risk, high-reward bet on a Facebook flop by buying some January 2016 $40 put options. Rest assured, I’ll check back in before they expire to write Facebook’s obituary and let you know it’s time to cash out your winnings.<\/p>\n

Ahead of the tape,<\/p>\n

Louis Basenese<\/p>\n

The post Where Are the Facebook Bodies Buried?<\/a> appeared first on Wall Street Daily<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Article By WallStreetDaily.com<\/u><\/a><\/p>\n

Original Article: Where Are the Facebook Bodies Buried?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By WallStreetDaily.com Way back on July 19, 2012, I told readers to avoid Facebook’s (FB) stock “like the plague.” Apparently, I was on to something. Now, I’m not talking about the fact that – within weeks of my stern warning – shares dropped 40% to hit an all-time low. I’m talking about the latest research … <\/p>\n

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