{"id":46354,"date":"2014-01-15T20:34:34","date_gmt":"2014-01-16T01:34:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=46354"},"modified":"2014-01-15T20:34:34","modified_gmt":"2014-01-16T01:34:34","slug":"what-the-economic-indicators-statistics-and-results-say-about-2014","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2014\/01\/15\/what-the-economic-indicators-statistics-and-results-say-about-2014\/","title":{"rendered":"What The Economic Indicators, Statistics and Results say About 2014"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By <a href=\"http:\/\/www.MoneyMorning.com.au\" target=\"_blank\"><u>MoneyMorning.com.au<\/u><\/a><\/p>\n<p>2014 isn&#8217;t shaping up to be a very nice year for  investors. A number of indicators, statistics and results are predicting a  tough time. That&#8217;s especially true in the US, which leads the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/category\/stock-market\/australian-share-market-stocks\" title=\"more on the Australian stock market \">Australian stock  market<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The  Baltic Dry Index, which measures shipping costs, is one of the few <strong>economic indicators <\/strong>I trust, at least a little. As trade around the world picks up, so  do the costs of shipping. But the index is off to its worst start in 30 years.  Shipping costs dropped 35% in two weeks! If other indicators begin showing a  sudden downtrend, this could turn out to be a canary in the coal mine. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>The  stock market&#8217;s statisticians are pointing to the old maxim &#8216;as January goes, so  goes the year&#8217;. Apparently it holds true for the US stock market in particular.  And January isn&#8217;t very encouraging so far, with both the Aussie and US stock  index down. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>But  investors are at their most bullish according to sentiment indices, and margin  lending (borrowing to invest in the stock market) is at an all-time high in the  US. As Warren Buffett likes to say, <em>&#8216;sell when others are greedy&#8217;.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>American  corporate profits are unnaturally high too, but job creation just fell to a  three year low. High profits might seem good at first, but profits are &#8216;mean  reverting&#8217;, so they could be in for a big drop. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>US  corporations as a whole have stopped buying back stocks &#8211; a form of dividend  where companies buy their own shares back. In other words, on a net basis they  are issuing more shares than they are buying. This adds to the supply of shares  in the marketplace.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If 2014 does turn out to be a bad year, the  question is whether the US central bank will surprise the world by maintaining  its stimulus instead of cutting it as expected. Yes, unfortunately the  investing world is still dominated by &#8216;what are the central bankers going to do  next?&#8217; When the weekly jobs data came out with a disappointing number, the  Aussie dollar jumped a cent in short order. That might reflect bets on more QE  than previously expected. <\/p>\n<p>Perhaps <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/category\/financial-system\/banks-and-interest-rates\/the-federal-reserve\" title=\"more on the US Federal Reserve \">the Federal Reserve <\/a>is managing  expectations by threatening to taper and then not tapering. This little bait  and switch trick could prolong a rally in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/category\/stock-market\/stocks-and-bonds\" title=\"more on stocks \">stocks<\/a>, with the market being  surprised by more stimulus. It also leaves the Federal Reserve with even fewer  trump cards to play. Eventually the managers of our stock markets and economies  will run out of such tricks and reality will strike. That moment is far off yet  though. For now, central bankers rule financial market prices.<\/p>\n<p>How Australia fits into all this is a little  confusing. Our currency numbs much of what goes on overseas, without  Australians themselves noticing it. For example, our stock market, measured in  Aussie dollars, is nowhere near its highs. But if you factor in the rise in<a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/category\/financial-system\/currency-market\/australian-dollar\" title=\"more on the Aussie Dollar \"> the  Aussie dollar<\/a>, then our market is far higher in terms of say US dollars.  Unfortunately for us Australians, that&#8217;s little comfort.<\/p>\n<p>The question is if this works both ways. If the US  market begins to fall, will our currency protect our stock market by falling  too? Or will our shares and the currency both tumble? In short, I don&#8217;t know.  But even if I thought I did know, it wouldn&#8217;t be worth relying on my  predictions.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s why all the strategies in I&#8217;ve devised for my readers in <em><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"http:\/\/pro1.portphillippublishing.com.au\/180201\/\" target=\"_blank\">The Money for Life Letter<\/a><\/em> are not reliant on a good economy or stock market. But all of them are still affected by good and poor prospects  for both. You can&#8217;t avoid that. So it&#8217;s a matter of holding onto your hats in  2014, and watching the new Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Regards,<\/strong><br \/>\n    <strong>Nick  Hubble<a href=\"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/u\/5\/116933854007030120597\/about\">+<\/a>,<\/strong><br \/>\n    <strong>Contributing  Editor, <em>Money Morning<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ed Note:<\/strong> The above is an edited extract of an update originally published in <em><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"http:\/\/pro1.portphillippublishing.com.au\/180201\/\" target=\"_blank\">The Money for Life Letter<\/a><\/em>. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/106516983215198267222\/about\" title=\"Join Money Morning on Google Plus -- and read about the things we can't always fit into our regular essays\"><u>Join Money Morning on Google+ <\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"feedflare\">\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?a=vL_sfU-ghww:pZxux7l-ySE:yIl2AUoC8zA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?d=yIl2AUoC8zA\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?a=vL_sfU-ghww:pZxux7l-ySE:V_sGLiPBpWU\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?i=vL_sfU-ghww:pZxux7l-ySE:V_sGLiPBpWU\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?a=vL_sfU-ghww:pZxux7l-ySE:gIN9vFwOqvQ\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?i=vL_sfU-ghww:pZxux7l-ySE:gIN9vFwOqvQ\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/MoneyMorningAustralia\/~4\/vL_sfU-ghww\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\" \/><br \/>\nBy <a href=\"http:\/\/www.MoneyMorning.com.au\" target=\"_blank\"><u>MoneyMorning.com.au<\/u><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By MoneyMorning.com.au 2014 isn&#8217;t shaping up to be a very nice year for investors. A number of indicators, statistics and results are predicting a tough time. That&#8217;s especially true in the US, which leads the Australian stock market. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures shipping costs, is one of the few economic indicators I trust, &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2014\/01\/15\/what-the-economic-indicators-statistics-and-results-say-about-2014\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;What The Economic Indicators, Statistics and Results say About 2014&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46354","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46354","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46354"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46354\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46354"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46354"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46354"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}