{"id":45837,"date":"2013-12-29T19:07:10","date_gmt":"2013-12-30T00:07:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=45837"},"modified":"2013-12-29T19:07:11","modified_gmt":"2013-12-30T00:07:11","slug":"stop-asking-about-a-housing-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/12\/29\/stop-asking-about-a-housing-crash\/","title":{"rendered":"Stop Asking About a Housing Crash"},"content":{"rendered":"

By MoneyMorning.com.au<\/u><\/a><\/p>\n

Cat, meet pigeons, meet oil, meet water, meet elephant, meet room. Meet Phil Anderson. <\/p>\n

Back in March we dropped a stink bomb in your inbox. We tendered the following:<\/p>\n

\n

‘If you’re waiting for the Australian property market to cool down before you buy a house…what if you’re waiting for something that isn’t going to happen?<\/em>‘<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

This was – indeed, still is<\/a><\/u> – the contention of leading economic forecaster and friend Philip J Anderson. <\/p>\n

If you’re a long-time reader you’ll know that Phil fired this controversial idea into the PPP-sphere for the first time back in 2009 at our Australia in the Red<\/em> show in Melbourne.<\/p>\n

It wasn’t what delegates expected to hear. <\/p>\n

And yet…they lapped it up. Phil was mobbed in the foyer at drinks. He never made it back into the auditorium for the second half of the show. Sceptical readers, waiting dutifully for Australian housing<\/strong> to begin its inevitable death-spiral, suddenly wanted to know when they should buy.<\/p>\n

Our views on the credit bubble were, with respect, wrong, Phil told us, to our faces. Suddenly, we weren’t the alpha-contrarians in the room anymore.<\/p>\n

Banks will create ‘as much credit as is needed’ to support high property prices in a boom. It’s all to do with economic cycles. And right now, we’re in the buying phase<\/strong> of an 18-year cycle: 14 years up, four down, Phil told (and still tells<\/a><\/u>) our readers. <\/p>\n

We kept in touch with Phil because we like him. We like him because he deals in facts. He’s not a spruiker. He’s not employed by the government \/ real estate \/ banking complex. He’s independent. He has no professional interest in house prices going up OR down. <\/p>\n

Mostly he’s a voracious accumulator of economic facts and data. He’s an analyst. He looks for patterns. He extrapolates. And he reports. In fact, he talks all over the world about economic cycles and how to interpret them, how to forecast using them, and how to make money from them. He has done for more than 20 years, boom or bust. <\/p>\n

And he does so dispassionately, despite being passionate about his research. That’s why we’re drawn to Phil, even though his views are diametrically opposed to those held by most of our editors. He doesn’t care if you believe him or not. He doesn’t care if we<\/em> believe him or not.<\/p>\n

Because we know his research comes from a place of honesty and conviction, we’re more than happy to publish it. In fact, we’re super-excited to publish it, even though we copped it big time when we launched Phil’s Remembering the Future<\/a><\/u><\/em> project back in the first week of June.
\n  
\nTo remind myself of the stink we caused, I somewhat reluctantly revisited the DR Inbox at arm’s length last week. Here’s a small sample of the printable invective still lurking in there …<\/p>\n