{"id":45460,"date":"2013-12-16T10:05:45","date_gmt":"2013-12-16T15:05:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=45460"},"modified":"2013-12-16T10:05:45","modified_gmt":"2013-12-16T15:05:45","slug":"analysts-split-feds-2014-impact-gold-qe-spotlight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/12\/16\/analysts-split-feds-2014-impact-gold-qe-spotlight\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts Split Over Fed’s 2014 Impact on Gold as QE in Spotlight"},"content":{"rendered":"

London Gold Market Report<\/strong><\/p>\n

from Adrian Ash<\/strong><\/p>\n

BullionVault<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Mon 16 Dec 08:35 EST<\/strong><\/p>\n

The PRICE of gold bounced from a steady drop Monday lunchtime in London, trading back at $1234 per ounce as Asian stockmarkets ended sharply down but Europe ticked up ahead of this week’s US Federal Reserve policy decision, due Wednesday.<\/p>\n

\u00a0China’s gold premiums above international prices edged lower again, dropping to $6 per ounce at the close of solid trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Silver tracked and extended the moves in gold, cutting an earlier 1.2% drop in half to record a London Fix<\/a> of $19.50 per ounce \u2013 exactly the level of Monday last week.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Looking ahead to Wednesday’s Fed announcement, “A deferral of [QE] tapering and year-end squaring should be positive for gold,” says a Japanese conglomerate’s precious metals team.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Last week’s high of $1268 per ounce reached Tuesday came as speculative traders in US gold futures and options raised their bullish bets and trimmed their bearish positions, new data from regulators showed Friday.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Over the week-ending Tues 10 December, the so-called\u00a0speculative “net long”<\/a>\u00a0of bullish minus bearish bets held in US gold derivatives by non-industry traders rose by more than one-fifth to a 3-week high.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Equal to 184 tonnes by value, however, the net long speculative position on gold remained near multi-year lows, down by two thirds from the start of 2013.<\/p>\n

\u00a0“If the Fed announces that it will be scaling back its bond purchases,” says Commerzbank in Germany, “[it] could pave the way for higher prices” as it removes uncertainty.<\/p>\n

\u00a0“Tapering,” agrees a Singapore dealing desk in a note, “does not automatically mean a one-way bet on lower gold.”<\/p>\n

\u00a0But while the US Fed “will likely not do anything at its meeting,” reckons INTL FCStone, a US brokerage and dealer, any “telegraphing” of its early 2014 intentions “will set up a weaker tone in gold heading into year-end, with a good chance that we could take out our 2013 lows in the process.”<\/p>\n

\u00a0Last week J.P.Morgan analysts cut their 2014 average gold forecast by 10% to $1263 per ounce.<\/p>\n

\u00a02014 prices will average $1294 per ounce says Bank of America Merrill Lynch, repeating its forecast from September according to the Dubai Chronicle.<\/p>\n

\u00a0“Bearish conditions persist,” says Swiss investment and London bullion bank UBS.<\/p>\n

\u00a0“We see little to change our near-term outlook of being mildly bearish on gold,” agrees ANZ Bank’s precious metals note Monday.<\/p>\n

\u00a0“Gold has trended downward since late August,” notes a technical analysis from Societe Generale.<\/p>\n

\u00a0“Since late October, a steeper channel has traced but [now] a sideways market is possible.”<\/p>\n

\u00a0Whatever the Fed decides Wednesday on its quantitative easing program, unemployment above 6.5% means the US zero interest-rate policy\u00a0will remain “appropriate”<\/a>, the central banks has repeated over the last 12 months, so long as inflation doesn’t rise above 3% or 4% per year.<\/p>\n

\u00a0The latest US budget deal does not extend unemployment benefits launched in 2008 for the longer-term jobless.<\/p>\n

\u00a0That means some 1.3 million people stand to lose benefits from December 28th, potentially\u00a0knocking 0.2 or even 0.5 percentage points<\/a>\u00a0off the official US jobless rate, according to Goldman Sachs and J.P.Morgan analysts, currently at a 5-year low of 7.0%.<\/p>\n

Adrian Ash<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

BullionVault<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can fully allocated bullion already vaulted in your choice of London, New York, Singapore, Toronto or Zurich for just 0.5% commission.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

(c) BullionVault 2013<\/p>\n

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events \u2013 and must be verified elsewhere \u2013 should you choose to act on it.<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

London Gold Market Report from Adrian Ash BullionVault Mon 16 Dec 08:35 EST The PRICE of gold bounced from a steady drop Monday lunchtime in London, trading back at $1234 per ounce as Asian stockmarkets ended sharply down but Europe ticked up ahead of this week’s US Federal Reserve policy decision, due Wednesday. \u00a0China’s gold … <\/p>\n

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