{"id":43249,"date":"2013-10-22T08:26:20","date_gmt":"2013-10-22T12:26:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=43249"},"modified":"2013-10-22T08:26:20","modified_gmt":"2013-10-22T12:26:20","slug":"traders-lack-conviction-gold-indian-reports-conflict-festive-demand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/10\/22\/traders-lack-conviction-gold-indian-reports-conflict-festive-demand\/","title":{"rendered":"Traders “Lack Conviction” in Gold, Indian Reports Conflict Over Festive Demand"},"content":{"rendered":"

London Gold Market Report<\/strong>
\nfrom Adrian Ash<\/strong>
\nBullionVault<\/strong><\/a>
\nTues 22 Oct 07:55 EST<\/strong><\/p>\n

WHOLESALE gold held in a tight $5 range Tuesday morning in London, drifting around $1315 per ounce ahead of delayed data on US unemployment.<\/p>\n

\u00a0The monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report had been due more than two weeks ago. It was set for release Tuesday after Congress’s 3-month deal on the $16.7 trillion debt ceiling ended the shutdown of government services.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Alongside gold, world markets in equities, bonds, commodities and currencies also sat tight ahead of the US jobs data.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Silver prices\u00a0slipped 1.1% from Monday’s near 2-week high of $22.33 per ounce.<\/p>\n

\u00a0“If the US September employment report, due on Tuesday, comes in surprisingly robust, it could trigger another sharp reversal in both gold and the US Dollar,” reckons Swiss bank and London market maker Credit Suisse in a note.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Amongst Western traders, “market participants lack conviction that gold could stage a decent performance going into 2014,” says a note from Russia’s VTB Capital, pointing to “expectations for gradually improving [interest rates] and completion of the Fed’s accommodative policy stance.<\/p>\n

\u00a0“There is little rationale in inflation hedging or safe haven buying at the moment. No one expects the [gold] market to rally in a similar fashion to the past decade with annual gains in excess of 10%.”<\/p>\n

\u00a0Positions held through the SPDR Gold Trust \u2013 the world’s largest exchange-traded gold fund (ticker: GLD) \u2013 shrank again Monday, with a further 11 tonnes shed from the gold needed to back its shares.<\/p>\n

\u00a0That took the month-on-month change in GLD assets to its worst drop since early August, down 4.4% to a new four-and-a-half-year low beneath 872 tonnes.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Over in China \u2013 the world’s No.2 gold consumer market, and likely to overtake India as No.1 in 2013 \u2013 “physical demand currently remains subdued,” says a note from ANZ Bank in Sydney, Australia.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Because “increasing interest [will show] ahead of Chinese New Year,” says ANZ, “it is unlikely to be evident before December.”<\/p>\n

\u00a0Meantime in India, premiums on gold bars \u2013 over and above the benchmark London price \u2013 today held at record highs above $120 per ounce, according to Reuters, as the\u00a0government’s anti-import rules<\/a>\u00a0met increasing demand ahead of the key Diwali festival.<\/p>\n

\u00a0“Demand is picking up and supplies have dried up,” the newswire quotes Bachhraj Bamalwa of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Yet jewelers are struggling to make sales, counters the Economic Times of India from Kolkata, saying that many retailers are using incentives to push jewelry sales.<\/p>\n

\u00a0“This festive season you can a win a trip to Dubai or get a brand new Skoda\u00a0with the jewellery you buy<\/a>,” says the paper.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Mehul Choksi of the giant Gitanjali chain says gold jewelry sales have fallen 30% compared with the same period in 2012.<\/p>\n

\u00a0“We do not see a sudden surge in demand coming this festive season,” he says. “The mood is very bearish.”<\/p>\n

\u00a0“Demand for bullion from the Middle East and Asia remains robust,” says Credit Suisse’s note today, “but we do not expect it to get close to the level of demand for physical bullion that the market experienced” in the first-half of 2013.<\/p>\n

Adrian Ash<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

BullionVault<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can fully allocated bullion already vaulted in your choice of London, New York, Singapore, Toronto or Zurich for just 0.5% commission.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

(c) BullionVault 2013<\/p>\n

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events \u2013 and must be verified elsewhere \u2013 should you choose to act on it.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

London Gold Market Report from Adrian Ash BullionVault Tues 22 Oct 07:55 EST WHOLESALE gold held in a tight $5 range Tuesday morning in London, drifting around $1315 per ounce ahead of delayed data on US unemployment. \u00a0The monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report had been due more than two weeks ago. It was set for release … <\/p>\n

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