{"id":42658,"date":"2013-10-02T21:20:10","date_gmt":"2013-10-03T01:20:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=42658"},"modified":"2013-10-02T21:20:10","modified_gmt":"2013-10-03T01:20:10","slug":"the-auto-industrys-2-trillion-breakthrough-driverless-cars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/10\/02\/the-auto-industrys-2-trillion-breakthrough-driverless-cars\/","title":{"rendered":"The Auto Industry\u2019s $2 Trillion Breakthrough: Driverless Cars"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By <a href=\"http:\/\/www.MoneyMorning.com.au\" target=\"_blank\"><u>MoneyMorning.com.au<\/u><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>Shattered  glass was everywhere.<\/p>\n<p>After the  sound of sirens and flashing police lights grew closer, I gave myself  permission to leave&#8230;and tried to put it out of my mind. Obviously, that last  part didn&#8217;t work.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ll never  forget that 20-something-year-old woman, standing there in the middle of the  highway&#8230;screaming and crying&#8230;phone in hand, shaking.<\/p>\n<p>The front of  her car was a crumpled monstrosity. To make matters worse, she had just slammed  into a Porsche &#8211; the poor thing.<\/p>\n<p>Fortunately,  nobody was in critical condition.<\/p>\n<p>As you  probably know all too well, they&#8217;re not always so lucky.<\/p>\n<p>The <strong>car<\/strong>  accident I witnessed last Friday was one of about 5.5 million motor vehicle  accidents that occur in the US every year. Using 2009 numbers, these accidents  involve 9.5 million vehicles and result in 33,808 deaths, 2.2 million injuries  and 240,000 hospitalizations.<\/p>\n<h2>So What is to Be Done?<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p>Many blame  the rise in smartphone usage to be the problem. &#8216;<em>At least 28% of all traffic crashes,<\/em>&#8216; says the National Safety  Council, &#8216;<em>or at least 1.6 million crashes  each year &#8211; involve drivers using cellphones and texting.<\/em>&#8216;<\/p>\n<p>While it&#8217;s  certainly true that texting, e-mail, playing music or whatever is leading to  more accidents, blaming that particular technology is missing the point.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m sure  you&#8217;ve also seen people eating breakfast while driving. Some groom themselves.  Some are just not paying attention or would rather not be &#8211; plain and simple.  We&#8217;ve all been guilty of one of these human tendencies at some point&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>More  dead-worded laws can only do so much. But consider for a moment that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/category\/technology-and-innovation\" title=\"more on technology\">technology<\/a> can solve what most paper proclamations can&#8217;t. For example&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Have you  ever seen those signs on the road that say &#8216;Caution: Slippery When Wet&#8217;?<\/p>\n<p>How about  taking the sign away and instead putting an abrasive in the road so it&#8217;s not  slippery when wet. That&#8217;s a technological solution, rather than the current  sorry excuse for problem solving.<\/p>\n<p>To take a  more futuristic example, why not build houses out of fireproof materials? It  would certainly save a lot of water&#8230;and who knows, is it conceivable that one  day in the far-off future, we wouldn&#8217;t need fire departments?<\/p>\n<p>Getting back  to cars&#8230;how about drunk driving? Why not put an oscillator in a car that  measures how much a person swerves, and pulls over when it&#8217;s too much? Or a  breathalyser that measures if it&#8217;s safe for them to drive? That would save  people a lot of legal trouble, not to mention more car accidents.<\/p>\n<p>The point is  many of our problems are technical. And it&#8217;s entrepreneurs who need to get  these innovations going. Laws like &#8216;no texting while driving&#8217; are well  intentioned. (How does that saying go? The road to hell is paved with good  intentions?)<\/p>\n<p>But if we  want to address the root problem, we need to upgrade our technology so it&#8217;s in  sync with our environment. It&#8217;s happening right now&#8230;and I&#8217;m not talking about  hands-free Bluetooth headsets&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>The No. 1  cause of all auto accidents is human error. So let&#8217;s upgrade the whole car so  that it drives itself!<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s a  good chance that if you live in the US, you&#8217;ve passed a <strong>driverless car<\/strong> without  even knowing it. Google fitted a Lexus with a complex array of lasers and  sensors. A LIDAR (laser radar) system that sits atop the car scans 360 degrees  around to identify other vehicles, pedestrians, road hazards, etc.<\/p>\n<p>The Google  Lexus has logged thousands of driverless miles. Likewise, a fleet of Google  Priuses with the same tech has logged over 500,000 driverless miles.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Google&#8217;s  driverless technology<\/strong> emerged through the mysterious doors of Google X Lab. But  it only took a dozen engineers to produce. They spent perhaps $50 million on  the project, or less than 0.0003% of Google&#8217;s revenue, throughout the course of  the entire program.<\/p>\n<p>That means  any other large automaker can design these cars once the market realises how  incredibly superior they are. The cost of <strong>Google&#8217;s driverless car<\/strong> project is &#8216;<em>less than a third of what carmakers have  spent on Super Bowl ads over the same period,<\/em>&#8216; according to a Forbes  article.<\/p>\n<p>And indeed,  Big Auto is paying attention&#8230; They&#8217;re salivating over a nearly $2 trillion pie.  According to Google&#8217;s lead developer of the project, Sebastian Thrun, fully  automated cars would achieve three monumental feats. They&#8217;d allow us to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Reduce traffic accidents by 90%<\/li>\n<li>Reduce wasted commute time and energy by 90%<\/li>\n<li>Reduce the number of cars by 90%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#8216;<em>Add up all the pieces,<\/em>&#8216; say the authors  of <em>Driverless Cars: Trillions Are up for  Grabs<\/em>, &#8216;<em>and what do you get?<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&#8216;<em>$450 billion related to crashes, $600  billion of car sales, $200 billion in auto-insurance premiums, the hundreds of  billions of dollars of health insurance that plausibly relate to car accidents  and so on &#8211; and you pretty easily get to about $2 trillion in revenue associated  with cars each year in the U.S. that the Google driverless car could eliminate.<\/em>&#8216;<\/p>\n<h2>&nbsp;How is a Driverless Car Even Possible?<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p>Most people  don&#8217;t understand that the modern-day car is a powerful computer.<\/p>\n<p>It has a  multimedia system, satellite navigation or GPS, dashboard and engine. Almost a  third of all computing cars do is just to tell you what&#8217;s going on. Check out  any automaker&#8217;s production line and you&#8217;ll see the sensors, computers and  millions of lines of computer code installed.<\/p>\n<p>Mercedes  Benz claims, for example, that their S-Class model has over 30 million lines of  code for just the multimedia system. Compare that with the F-35 Joint Strike  Fighter jets. Those planes use about 5.7 million lines of code to operate their  onboard systems. In that respect, a Mercedes is more complex than a fighter  jet!<\/p>\n<p>And because  your car is a computer, it follows the awesome reliability of Moore&#8217;s law.<\/p>\n<p>Moore&#8217;s law,  by the way, is one trend every tech investor must know. It&#8217;s proved reliable  for 70 some years. Simply put, it states that computing power continues to  double every 18 months. Now that driverless cars are becoming more of a  computer, it&#8217;s almost a guarantee that they&#8217;ll be on our roads within the next  decade.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s where  it gets really interesting&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>The  driverless car market is shaping up to look a lot like the smartphone market  with respect to the <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"http:\/\/pro1.portphillippublishing.com.au\/152191\/\" target=\"_blank\">emerging business models and profit  opportunities<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Big Auto has  begun to pick up speed, and it&#8217;s gaining mileage on Google.<\/p>\n<p>But what&#8217;s  this? Tesla Motors just pulled ahead in the race, with an estimated 90%  driverless car ETA of just three years!<\/p>\n<p>The Space  Race of the global automotive market is heating up.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Josh Grasmick<\/strong><br \/>\n    <strong>Contributing Editor, <em>Money Morning <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Publisher&#8217;s Note<\/em>: <a href=\"http:\/\/dailyreckoning.com\/the-auto-industrys-2-trillion-breakthrough\/\" target=\"_blank\">The Auto Industry&#8217;s $2 Trillion Breakthrough<\/a> originally appeared in <em>The Daily Reckoning USA. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/106516983215198267222\/about\" title=\"Join Money Morning on Google Plus -- and read about the things we can't always fit into our regular essays\"><u>Join Money Morning on Google+ <\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"feedflare\">\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?a=wntsYMfEgSs:QleJBgMbGNI:yIl2AUoC8zA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?d=yIl2AUoC8zA\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?a=wntsYMfEgSs:QleJBgMbGNI:V_sGLiPBpWU\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?i=wntsYMfEgSs:QleJBgMbGNI:V_sGLiPBpWU\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?a=wntsYMfEgSs:QleJBgMbGNI:gIN9vFwOqvQ\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?i=wntsYMfEgSs:QleJBgMbGNI:gIN9vFwOqvQ\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/MoneyMorningAustralia\/~4\/wntsYMfEgSs\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By MoneyMorning.com.au Shattered glass was everywhere. After the sound of sirens and flashing police lights grew closer, I gave myself permission to leave&#8230;and tried to put it out of my mind. Obviously, that last part didn&#8217;t work. I&#8217;ll never forget that 20-something-year-old woman, standing there in the middle of the highway&#8230;screaming and crying&#8230;phone in hand, &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/10\/02\/the-auto-industrys-2-trillion-breakthrough-driverless-cars\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The Auto Industry\u2019s $2 Trillion Breakthrough: Driverless Cars&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42658","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42658"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42658\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42658"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42658"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42658"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}