{"id":42472,"date":"2013-09-29T20:34:47","date_gmt":"2013-09-30T00:34:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=42472"},"modified":"2013-09-29T20:34:47","modified_gmt":"2013-09-30T00:34:47","slug":"you-can-bank-on-another-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/09\/29\/you-can-bank-on-another-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"You Can Bank on Another Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"

By MoneyMorning.com.au<\/u><\/a> <\/p>\n

The GFC brought into stark contrast just how vital the banking system<\/strong> is to the functioning of an economy.<\/p>\n

At the height of the GFC banks did not trust each other. And people did not trust the banks<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Banks viewed each other with suspicion. Letters of credit were no longer accepted on face value. The shipping industry, which relies heavily on letters of credit, ground to a standstill.<\/p>\n

Customers lined up outside banks<\/strong> (some with suitcases) to withdraw their savings. <\/p>\n

Such was the demand for cash, the Reserve Bank of Australia<\/a> came close to running out of physical notes. <\/p>\n

Modern commerce is a function of faith. When faith in the financial system<\/a> is lost, chaos follows. <\/p>\n

Banks are the Heart of the Financial System<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Money pumps in and money pumps out. The flow of money through the system is as vital to economic health as the flow of blood is to our physical wellbeing. We all know what happens when arteries become blocked or, worse still, when a heart stops pumping.<\/p>\n

Governments are only too aware of the need to maintain public faith in the banking sector<\/strong>. Government backed deposit guarantees still remain in force five years after the event – albeit the guarantees are now applied to lower dollar levels.<\/p>\n

The first premise of my theory is governments must and will support the banking system in times of crisis. They cannot afford to have the heart stop beating. While nothing is ever certain, the prospect of government not wheeling out the defibrillator is extremely remote.<\/p>\n

So I go with the balance of probability and assess that the banking system will be rescued. But who pays and at what cost? <\/p>\n

Sayings like ‘safe as a bank’ refer to an era of prudence that is not reflective of modern banking.<\/p>\n

Yet, by and large, banks are still viewed as these conservative pillars of society.<\/p>\n

This chart from last week shows US credit growth exploding from 1980 onwards.\n<\/p>\n


\n\"\"<\/a>
\nClick to enlarge<\/em><\/a><\/div>\n

This graph applies equally to the rest of the western world. Who facilitated and profited (handsomely) from this debt mania? The banks. Fractional banking enabled banks to gear up by a factor of 10x or more. This highly leveraged pillar is what our monetary system rests upon.<\/p>\n

The Impact of Shrinking Credit <\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

After 30-years of unbridled debt expansion we have reached the stage where there are too many vested interests prohibiting the stabilisation of banking system.<\/p>\n

Firmer foundations would require banks to reduce their gearing – lend less. Think of the ramifications of banks systematically reducing the credit flow throughout society:<\/p>\n