{"id":41762,"date":"2013-09-06T10:09:46","date_gmt":"2013-09-06T14:09:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=41762"},"modified":"2013-09-06T10:09:46","modified_gmt":"2013-09-06T14:09:46","slug":"does-syria-matter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/09\/06\/does-syria-matter\/","title":{"rendered":"Does Syria Matter?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><u>By The Sizemore Letter<\/u><\/p>\n<p>The Senate Foreign Relations Committee gave its blessing to President Obama\u2019s plan to take limited action against the Syrian regime for using chemical weapons against its own people.\u00a0 \u00a0A full Senate vote is expected in the next few days and will likely pass.\u00a0 Barring any hiccups in the House, the bombs could start falling as soon as next week.<\/p>\n<p>Whenever the words \u201cMiddle East\u201d and \u201cwar\u201d get mixed in the same sentence, people get nervous.\u00a0 It\u2019s a messy and complicated part of the world with ever-shifting alliances and unlikely bedfellows.\u00a0 Devoutly Sunni Saudi Arabia supports the secular military regime in Egypt, while constitutionally secular Turkey supports the deposed Muslim Brotherhood.\u00a0 In Syria, a secular nationalist regime is supported by radical Shia Iran and Orthodox Christian (and formally communist) Russia.\u00a0 And Lebanon?\u00a0 Its political arrangements resemble something from the Godfather.<\/p>\n<p>You might think that hatred of Israel is the tie that binds, but even this is a half-truth.\u00a0 Though the two countries have no formal relations, Israel and Saudi Arabia have become allies of sorts, and\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/id\/37653040\/ns\/world_news-mideast_n_africa\/t\/saudis-clear-israel-bomb-iran\/#.Uiihg8aThzV\">rumors<\/a>\u00a0have flown in recent years that the Saudis have given the nod to the Israelis that it\u00a0<i>might<\/i>\u00a0&lt;wink wink&gt; be ok for their jets to cross Saudi airspace en route to bombing Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities.<\/p>\n<p>This is why an airstrike on Syria gives us the jitters.\u00a0 The fear is that, given how complicated the relationships are, a \u201climited\u201d response could escalate into something much bigger, dragging in other regional players such as Iran, or even Russia.\u00a0 Colin Powell warned George W. Bush that if he broke Iraq, he owned it.\u00a0 No one in Congress or the White House wants to \u201cown\u201d Syria.<\/p>\n<p>So with all of this as background, should investors worry about Syria?<\/p>\n<p>Not really.\u00a0 You should watch the headlines and be aware that events can change quickly.\u00a0 But consider the following:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>The Western response is intended to punish the Assad regime but not remove it.\u00a0 Assad will not escalate and give the West an incentive to remove him\u2026particularly since he is winning the war.<\/li>\n<li>Syria\u2019s options for retaliation are few and likely ineffective.\u00a0 Could they attack Israel in the hopes of rallying the Arab street?\u00a0 Maybe.\u00a0 But Saddam Hussein tried that in the first Gulf War to little effect.<\/li>\n<li>Iran is not likely to join the fray.\u00a0 Think about it.\u00a0 If they sit tight, their ally in Syria will take some damage but will hold on to power.<\/li>\n<li>Vladimir Putin\u2019s Russia likes to antagonize the West, but this isn\u2019t the 1980s. Russia has little to gain from letting this escalate too far, particularly given that their ally is winning the war.<\/li>\n<li>Syria is not an oil-exporting country.\u00a0 Unless Iran enters the fray and closes the Straits of Hormuz\u2014which again, is unlikely\u2014any spike in the price of oil should be a temporary blip.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>There are plenty of macro risks out there to consider.\u00a0 Front and center is the Fed\u2019s tapering of its quantitative easing program, and Europe\u2019s sovereign debt debacle is the crisis that never seems to end.\u00a0 But Syria is not something you spend time worrying about.<\/p>\n<p>This article first appeared on <a href=\"http:\/\/investorplace.com\/2013\/09\/does-syria-matter\/\">InvestorPlace<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><em>Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, is the editor of the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/sizemoreletter.com\/\">Sizemore Investment Letter<\/a>\u00a0and the chief investment officer of investments firm Sizemore Capital Management.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/order.investorplace.com\/?sid=DH8323\">Click here<\/a>\u00a0to learn about his top 5 global investing trends and get your copy of \u201cThe Top 5 Million Dollar Trends of 2013.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p>This article first appeared on Sizemore Insights as <a href=\"http:\/\/charlessizemore.com\/syria-matter\/\">Does Syria Matter?<\/a><\/p>\n<div class='yarpp-related-rss'>\n<p>Related posts:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href='http:\/\/charlessizemore.com\/follow-up-to-israel-and-turkey-how-changing-demographics-are-affecting-international-relations-in-the-middle-east\/' rel='bookmark' title='Follow-up to Israel and Turkey: How Changing Demographics are Affecting International Relations in the Middle East'>Follow-up to Israel and Turkey: How Changing Demographics are Affecting International Relations in the Middle East<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href='http:\/\/charlessizemore.com\/israel-and-turkey-how-changing-demographics-are-affecting-international-relations-in-the-middle-east\/' rel='bookmark' title='Israel and Turkey: How Changing Demographics Are Affecting International Relations in the Middle East'>Israel and Turkey: How Changing Demographics Are Affecting International Relations in the Middle East<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href='http:\/\/charlessizemore.com\/what-happens-if-hugo-chavez-croaks\/' rel='bookmark' title='What Happens if Hugo Chavez Croaks?'>What Happens if Hugo Chavez Croaks?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p> <a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/17W2Dp7\" target=\"blank\"><u>Join the Sizemore Investment Letter &#8211; Premium Edition<\/u><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By The Sizemore Letter The Senate Foreign Relations Committee gave its blessing to President Obama\u2019s plan to take limited action against the Syrian regime for using chemical weapons against its own people.\u00a0 \u00a0A full Senate vote is expected in the next few days and will likely pass.\u00a0 Barring any hiccups in the House, the bombs &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/09\/06\/does-syria-matter\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Does Syria Matter?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41762","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41762","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41762"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41762\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41762"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41762"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41762"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}