{"id":40566,"date":"2013-08-01T16:21:59","date_gmt":"2013-08-01T20:21:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=40566"},"modified":"2013-08-01T16:21:59","modified_gmt":"2013-08-01T20:21:59","slug":"more-evidence-of-a-cyclical-recession-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/08\/01\/more-evidence-of-a-cyclical-recession-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"More Evidence of a Cyclical Recession Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By Profit Confidential<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.profitconfidential.com\/stock-market\/more-evidence-of-a-cyclical-recession-ahead\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-40371\" title=\"More Evidence of a Cyclical Recession Ahead\" alt=\"More Evidence of a Cyclical Recession Ahead\" src=\"http:\/\/www.profitconfidential.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/010813_PC_clark.jpg\" width=\"210\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a>The pharmaceutical industry isn\u2019t particularly a favorite of individuals, but many of the large players within it make for excellent retirement holdings. With high yields and good visibility, a large pharmaceutical company is a welcome addition in equity market portfolios.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Pfizer Inc. (PFE) represents the typical performance we\u2019re seeing from many corporations. The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.profitconfidential.com\/company\/\" target=\"_blank\">company<\/a> beat on earnings, missed on revenues, and reaffirmed full-year guidance.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Second-quarter sales dropped seven percent to $12.97 billion, of which three percent was due to foreign exchange.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The company had a major gain in earnings, but income from continuing operations was $0.50 per share, up 28% from $0.40 a share.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">On the face of it, the company\u2019s lack in top-line growth was a disappointment. But in the stock market, things are always relative, and the stock still went up on what can only be described as weak earnings news. Pfizer is currently yielding 3.3%, with a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 14.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Another company that announced disappointing results was E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DD), or DuPont, whose share price was particularly strong in July.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">DuPont\u2019s second-quarter sales dropped one percent to $9.8 billion. Once again, the company\u2019s agriculture division was the strongest with an 11% increase due to seed price gains and volume growth in corn and insecticides. Two-thirds of the company\u2019s other divisions experienced a drop in business.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.profitconfidential.com\/earnings\/\" target=\"_blank\">Earnings<\/a> also fell to $1.03 billion, down from $1.17 billion in the second quarter last year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">So as you can see, there really is a trend of lackluster numbers, but stock market-wise, these <a href=\"http:\/\/www.profitconfidential.com\/blue-chip\/\" target=\"_blank\">blue chip<\/a> positions aren\u2019t coming apart. The monetary expansion is helping with an earnings multiple expansion, but from my perspective, I wouldn\u2019t be buying these lackluster results.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Some corporate earnings have been solid among big brand names. A pharmaceutical holding is definitely a worthwhile component in a balanced equity portfolio, but it very much continues to be a zero-growth environment for many companies. Mature companies, despite significant cost controls, just can\u2019t grow their businesses. (See \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.profitconfidential.com\/stock-market\/earnings-reports-masking-the-rest-of-the-equation-risk-remains-high\/\" target=\"_blank\">Earnings Reports Masking the Rest of the Equation: Risk Remains High<\/a>.\u201d)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The stock market is very much a hold near-term. The mediocrity in company earnings is just more ammunition for the case for a cyclical recession.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">I\u2019d really like the stock market to experience a meaningful pullback before investors consider taking on new positions. It might take a full-blown recession to make this happen. The market\u2019s been due for a major correction, but the Federal Reserve has been just too accommodative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">I feel that many individual stocks are well ahead of their own specific fundamentals. Anything is possible in a market like this, but I wouldn\u2019t be buying it with the numbers we\u2019re seeing now.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">It can still be the beginning of a secular bull market in stocks, with the equity market very much a leading indicator. But company earnings right now are not strong enough. It really is a Fed-maintained equity market.<\/p>\n<p> Article by <a href=\"http:\/\/profitconfidential.com\/\">profitconfidential.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Profit Confidential The pharmaceutical industry isn\u2019t particularly a favorite of individuals, but many of the large players within it make for excellent retirement holdings. With high yields and good visibility, a large pharmaceutical company is a welcome addition in equity market portfolios. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) represents the typical performance we\u2019re seeing from many corporations. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/08\/01\/more-evidence-of-a-cyclical-recession-ahead\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;More Evidence of a Cyclical Recession Ahead&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40566","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40566"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40566\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40566"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40566"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40566"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}