{"id":40389,"date":"2013-07-28T22:52:50","date_gmt":"2013-07-29T02:52:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=40389"},"modified":"2013-07-28T22:52:50","modified_gmt":"2013-07-29T02:52:50","slug":"this-stock-market-rally-hasnt-run-out-of-puff-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/07\/28\/this-stock-market-rally-hasnt-run-out-of-puff-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"This Stock Market Rally Hasn\u2019t Run Out of Puff Yet\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

By MoneyMorning.com.au<\/u><\/a> <\/p>\n

You may notice that sometimes we’re glib and dismissive of what goes on in the financial markets<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That isn’t because it’s not important. But rather there’s so much waffle flying around that we prefer you just ignore it.<\/p>\n

A great example right now is the current battle over who will take over from Dr Ben S Bernanke as chairman of the US Federal Reserve. Will it be Janet Yellen? Or perhaps Larry Summers? Or maybe Bozo the Clown?<\/p>\n

Let’s get one thing straight: no one becomes chairman of the Fed with an agenda to rock the apple cart. So in the list of priorities that you should focus on, the race to lead the Fed should be somewhere near the bottom.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, finding a way to earn up to $257,948 tax free should be right at the top of your priority list…<\/p>\n

Who doesn’t want to earn tax-free dollars?<\/p>\n

Our colleague, Vern Gowdie, editor of the soon-to-launch Gowdie Family Wealth<\/em>, reveals all in the essay below.<\/p>\n

However, before you can get to the stage that Vern talks about – the enjoying your retirement stage – there’s the small matter of building<\/em> your wealth first.<\/p>\n

In short, the easy bit is spending and enjoying what you’ve earned, the hard bit is getting to that point.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Be Cautious But Not Over-Cautious<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

As you should know by now, your editor is a big advocate of the stock market’s wealth creation power.<\/p>\n

But it’s fair to say that stocks have gotten a raw deal in recent years. If you ask most people, they’ll tell you the stock market<\/strong> is the biggest wealth destroyer<\/em> going around.<\/p>\n

Of course, that’s not really true. It’s just that they probably dabbled in the market and lost some money, or they heard of someone doing the same.<\/p>\n

It doesn’t help the stock market’s<\/a> cause (especially in Australia) when something like the 2008 stock market crash gets front page headlines, while at the same time house prices<\/a> in Melbourne and Sydney barely budged an inch.<\/p>\n

No wonder folks thought they were better off investing in houses rather than dabbling in the stock market.<\/p>\n

That’s a shame. Because we bet they missed the rally from 2009. And we’re sure they missed the rally that started around the middle of last year. In both cases, the returns from stocks<\/a> have been far better than any return from housing.<\/p>\n

However, you shouldn’t ridicule the folks who refuse to give the stock market a go. Instead, you should use their caution as a reminder to never get in over your head…<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

We Don’t See Stocks Falling 20% from Here<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Some investors get impatient when the market piles on big returns in a few months or even weeks. Having missed out on the initial rally because they were too scared, they see a quick 10% gain and panic-buy.<\/p>\n

They become worried that if they miss out on this move they’ll never get another chance to buy stocks<\/a> this cheap.<\/p>\n

And look, that’s possible. Our view is that in the next five years at least, you won’t get the chance to buy blue-chip stocks<\/a> at the 2009 low. That opportunity has gone, so forget about it – for now anyway.<\/p>\n

In fact, if we’re right about the direction this market is heading, odds are you won’t get the chance to buy stocks at the 2012 low either. The Australian market <\/a> would have to fall 20% from here, and quite frankly we don’t see that happening.<\/p>\n

But we also know the stock market is risky. And if there’s one thing we’ve learned since getting into the markets nearly 20 years ago: that’s never to buy just because others are buying.<\/p>\n

Besides, although it’s a great time to buy stocks<\/a>, we still think it’s too risky to have much more than 40% of your total wealth in the stock market (that’s blue-chip income and growth and small-cap stocks combined).<\/p>\n

We say that because we know that in the long run, a lot of the bearish analysts are right about the macro-economic view of the market. If we thought they were wrong, we’d tell you to put all your money in stocks.<\/p>\n

But even so, we don’t know how long it will take for those predictions to come true. It could happen next week, next year, or 50 years from now. We don’t know about you, but we’re just not prepared to miss out on big gains waiting for something that may not happen for years.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Can US Stock Earnings Keep Improving?<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Right now more news is lining up on the positive side rather than the negative side. As Bloomberg<\/em> reported last week, ‘Of the 237 S&P 500 companies that have posted quarterly results, 74 per cent have exceeded analysts’ profit estimates.<\/em>‘<\/p>\n

That’s important. It tells you even the Wall Street moneymen have under-estimated the earnings power of US stocks. Now, that doesn’t inevitably mean stocks will rise. Stocks will only climb further if investors and analysts believe companies can keep growing profits.<\/p>\n

If analysts think this is the end of the run, then stocks could tread water or even fall.<\/p>\n

Personally, we don’t buy that idea yet. Low interest rates will continue to boost stocks for the foreseeable future. Plus, the end of political indecision in Australia with the federal election and in the US with a new Fed chairman could act as another boost for stocks.<\/p>\n

We know. It seems ridiculous that anyone would base an investment decision on who becomes PM or central bank chairman, but it’s a fact of life…it happens.<\/p>\n

As always, take note<\/em> of these extra-curricular activities, but don’t let them rule<\/em> how you invest, or worse, stop you from investing.<\/p>\n

Cheers,<\/strong>
\n Kris+<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Join Money Morning on Google+ <\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

From the Port Phillip Publishing Library<\/em><\/strong> <\/p>\n

Special Report: The Sixth Revolution<\/a> <\/p>\n

Daily Reckoning:<\/em> <\/strong>Living in a Keynesian Fictional Paradise<\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Money Morning<\/em>: Money Weekend’s Technology FutureWatch 27 July 2013<\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Pursuit of Happiness:<\/em> <\/strong>Foreign Family in Taxpayer Rort…Or Royal Celebration?<\/a> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Australian Small-Cap Investigator<\/em>:
\nHow to Make Big Money from Small-Cap Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n

\n<\/img><\/a> <\/img><\/a> <\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By MoneyMorning.com.au You may notice that sometimes we’re glib and dismissive of what goes on in the financial markets. That isn’t because it’s not important. But rather there’s so much waffle flying around that we prefer you just ignore it. A great example right now is the current battle over who will take over from … <\/p>\n

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