{"id":37841,"date":"2013-04-26T10:35:45","date_gmt":"2013-04-26T14:35:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=37841"},"modified":"2013-04-26T10:35:45","modified_gmt":"2013-04-26T14:35:45","slug":"time-to-cash-in-your-chips","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/04\/26\/time-to-cash-in-your-chips\/","title":{"rendered":"Time to Cash in Your Chips?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>By Bill Bonner<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We don&#8217;t like the looks of it&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Advisors are too bullish. Investors are too complacent. The financial authorities are too confident.<\/p>\n<p>All up and down Wall Street&#8230; in central banks and in Washington&#8230;<br \/>\nthe stuff that goeth before the fall is thick, sticky and stinky.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.billbonnersdiary.com\/articles\/bonner-no-recovery.html\" target=\"_blank\">The economy is recovering<\/a>, they say. The Fed has the situation in hand, they add. Don&#8217;t worry&#8230; we know what we&#8217;re doing, they assure us.<\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"http:\/\/online.barrons.com\/article\/SB50001424052748703318404578427170246873366.html#articleTabs_article%3D1\" target=\"_blank\">Barron&#8217;s <\/a><\/em><a href=\"http:\/\/online.barrons.com\/article\/SB50001424052748703318404578427170246873366.html#articleTabs_article=1\">magazine says<\/a> the Dow is going to 16,000, illustrated with a picture of a bull on a pogo stick.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bonnerfamilyoffice.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/04\/barronsFrontCover.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bonnerfamilyoffice.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/04\/barronsFrontCoversm.jpg\" \/><br \/>\n<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bonnerfamilyoffice.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/04\/barronsFrontCover.jpg\">View Larger Image<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Prime Minister Abe says he&#8217;ll revive the Japanese economy by printing<br \/>\nyen to buy Japanese bonds. And speculators take each hint from the Fed<br \/>\nas though it were a whisper from God Himself.<\/p>\n<p>And all around them, the real economy struggles to stay even. Here&#8217;s<br \/>\nDavid Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff with 12 signs that the economy is<br \/>\nweaker than we think:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Household employment (-206,000 in March, the steepest decline in well over a year).<\/li>\n<li>Real retail sales (-0.3% in March, down for the second time in three months).<\/li>\n<li>Manufacturing production (-0.1% and also down in two of the past three months).<\/li>\n<li>Core capex orders (-3.2% in February and, again, down in two of the past three months).<\/li>\n<li>Single-family housing starts (-4.8% in March and negative for two of the past three months, as well).<\/li>\n<li>New home sales (-4.6% in February).<\/li>\n<li>Philly Fed for April down to 1.3 from 2 .<\/li>\n<li>NY Fed Empire manufacturing index down to 3.05 from 9.24.<\/li>\n<li>NAHB Housing Market I ndex down to a six-month low of 42 in April from 44.<\/li>\n<li>Conference Board C onsumer C onfidence I ndex down to 59.7 in March from 68.<\/li>\n<li>University of Michigan consumer sentiment down to 72.3 for April from 78.6, the lowest in over a year.<\/li>\n<li>Conference Board leading indicators down 0.1% in March, first decline in seven months.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 align=\"center\">Markets Make Opinions<\/h3>\n<p>Facts, figures, statistics&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Do you believe them, dear reader? We don&#8217;t. We&#8217;re just giving the dreamers a little taste of their own medicine.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Markets make the opinions,&#8221; say the old timers. When prices are up,<br \/>\npeople share the opinion that they are going up. When prices go down,<br \/>\nopinions change with falling prices.<\/p>\n<p>And when prices rise, the opinion mongers look for reasons to explain<br \/>\nwhy they have become so bullish. They find indexes, statistics, numbers<br \/>\n\u2013 all the &#8220;facts&#8221; confirm their opinion. When prices fall, their<br \/>\nopinions grow dark and they need to find new facts that they can use to<br \/>\njustify a counter view.<\/p>\n<p>Get a feeling. Form an opinion. Find a fact and pretend that you are a<br \/>\nrational, reasonable investor. That&#8217;s the name of the game.<\/p>\n<p>But are we any different?<\/p>\n<p>Not at all. We&#8217;re just crankier. More cynical. And less impressed by authority in all its forms. Besides, we&#8217;ve been <a href=\"http:\/\/www.billbonnersdiary.com\/articles\/bonner-argentine-government.html\" target=\"_blank\">living in Argentina<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>If a Nobel Prize-winning economist tells us that the economy is improving, what do we really know? We know he can talk!<\/p>\n<p>If the president tells us that he and his friends are making the world a better place, what do we do? We laugh!<\/p>\n<p>If a leading financial magazine tells us that the &#8220;Big Money&#8221; firmly believes the Dow is headed higher, what do we do?<\/p>\n<p>We seriously consider selling!<\/p>\n<p>From bearish fund manager John Hussman: &#8220;Rule o&#8217; Thumb: When the<br \/>\ncover of a major financial magazine features a cartoon of a bull leaping<br \/>\nthrough the air on a pogo stick, it&#8217;s probably about time to cash in<br \/>\nthe chips.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Regards,<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 13px; text-align: left; color: #000000; font-family: Verdana;\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Bill Bonner\" alt=\"Bill Bonner\" src=\"https:\/\/www.insidersstrategygroup.com\/images\/web\/bbonner-sig.gif\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Bill<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Bill Bonner We don&#8217;t like the looks of it&#8230; Advisors are too bullish. Investors are too complacent. The financial authorities are too confident. All up and down Wall Street&#8230; in central banks and in Washington&#8230; the stuff that goeth before the fall is thick, sticky and stinky. The economy is recovering, they say. The &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/04\/26\/time-to-cash-in-your-chips\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Time to Cash in Your Chips?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37841","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37841"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37841\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}