{"id":37780,"date":"2013-04-24T01:38:36","date_gmt":"2013-04-24T05:38:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=37780"},"modified":"2013-04-24T01:38:36","modified_gmt":"2013-04-24T05:38:36","slug":"the-most-unexpected-data-coming-out-of-beijing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/04\/24\/the-most-unexpected-data-coming-out-of-beijing\/","title":{"rendered":"The Most Unexpected Data Coming Out of Beijing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By <a href=\"http:\/\/WallStreetDaily.com\/\"><u>WallStreetDaily.com<\/u><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s a shocker for you, straight from Beijing&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>No, I&#8217;m not talking about how China&#8217;s manufacturing growth unexpectedly cooled in March.<\/p>\n<p>Fears over a slowdown in the world&#8217;s second-largest economy are <em>so<\/em> yesterday&#8217;s news.<\/p>\n<p>Especially after we learned roughly two weeks ago that China&#8217;s GDP growth rate slid from 7.9% in the fourth quarter of 2012 to 7.7% in the first quarter of 2013. (That&#8217;s great by U.S. standards, but stinks for China. It&#8217;s actually the slowest rate in over a decade.)<\/p>\n<p>Instead, I&#8217;m talking about the fact that China just turned its army loose on the United States. That is, an army of financial attorneys.<\/p>\n<p>Because online retailer,<strong> LightInTheBox <\/strong>(Proposed Ticker: LITB), officially filed plans with the SEC to go public.<\/p>\n<p>What&#8217;s the big deal?<\/p>\n<p>For one thing, it&#8217;s the first Chinese company to file for an IPO on a U.S. exchange in 2013.<\/p>\n<p>More importantly &#8211; and I bet you didn&#8217;t know this &#8211; China-based IPOs have been on a bit of a tear lately.<\/p>\n<p>Consider: Social network operator, <strong>YY<\/strong> (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AYY&amp;ei=nel2UeDuJMmD0QH4QQ\">YY<\/a>), which debuted in November 2012, is up 55%. Then there&#8217;s online discount retailer, <strong>Vipshop<\/strong> (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NYSE%3AVIPS&amp;ei=o-l2UengDKau0AGRDg\">VIPS<\/a>), which IPO&#8217;d in February 2012. It&#8217;s up by an even more impressive 341%.<\/p>\n<p>Granted, those are the only two Chinese companies that IPO&#8217;d in the United States in the last year or so. But it doesn&#8217;t matter. As investors, it only takes one timely investment to meaningfully increase our bottom line. Plus, as the investing adage goes, three makes a trend.<\/p>\n<p>So is LightInTheBox the next Chinese IPO destined for stock market riches? And, more significantly, is it about to signal the start of a trend? Let&#8217;s find out&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>From Boom to Bust&#8230; to Boom?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>While no investor lays claim to their very own printing press, back in 2010, they had the next best thing &#8211; Chinese IPOs.<\/p>\n<p>A total of 41 China-based companies debuted on U.S. markets that year. In total, they raised almost $4 billion, which accounted for nearly a third of all IPO volume in the United States.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.wallstreetdaily.com\/wallstreet-research\/charts\/0413_ChinaIPO.png\" width=\"500\" height=\"400\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And, like clockwork, many of these Chinese IPOs handed switched-on investors triple-digit gains&#8230;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Camelot Information Systems <\/strong>(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NYSE%3ACIS&amp;ei=tOl2UYCOJbDh0wG5owE\">CIS<\/a>), a provider of financial industry IT services, jumped 117% higher.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Youku.com <\/strong>(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NYSE%3AYOKU&amp;ei=x-l2UaAfsOHTAbmjAQ\">YOKU<\/a>),<strong> <\/strong>a leading<strong> <\/strong>television and online video portal, soared 174%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>And <strong>HiSoft Tech<\/strong>,<strong> <\/strong>a provider of outsourced IT and R&amp;D services &#8211; and now known as<strong> Pactera Technology International Ltd. <\/strong>(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=NASDAQ%3APACT&amp;ei=1ul2UZDoIenF0gHqlwE\">PACT<\/a>) &#8211;<strong> <\/strong>jumped 256%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Of course, the boom eventually busted. (Don&#8217;t they all?)<\/p>\n<p>Fraud allegations, accounting irregularities and slowing growth in China quickly sapped investor demand for new Chinese IPOs.<\/p>\n<p>Investor confidence in the previous IPOs weakened, as well.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, the three standout performers above are down 73%, 94% and 84%, respectively, from their peaks. (Ouch!)<\/p>\n<p>This is perhaps the most telling indication of a reversal, though&#8230; In 2011, the value of Chinese companies that withdrew from the U.S. market actually <em>exceeded<\/em> the amount raised by Chinese companies going public!<\/p>\n<p>Like clothing, though, the stock market is cyclical. What goes out of fashion eventually comes back in.<\/p>\n<p>So it&#8217;s only a matter of time before Chinese IPOs start listing more frequently on U.S. exchanges again. Especially considering that the U.S. IPO market &#8220;is the deepest, most prestigious capital market,&#8221; according to Kevin Pollack, Managing Director at Paragon Capital.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, successful IPOs naturally encourage more activity. Or, as Pollack says, &#8220;A long line of companies want to do IPOs here. Having one successful IPO bodes well for the other companies.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Not to mention that the bust years should have weeded out the lower-quality companies \u00ad- leaving the more compelling opportunities for investors.<\/p>\n<p>With that in mind, let&#8217;s find out if LightInTheBox does, indeed, boast high-quality fundamentals &#8211; and, in turn, deserves a spot on our coveted &#8220;Hot IPO&#8221; watch list.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Worth Our Attention, But Not Our Investment Dollars<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Longtime <em>Wall Street Daily<\/em> readers know that I run every IPO, no matter its home country, through a pretty stringent gauntlet. (You can get up to speed <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wallstreetdaily.com\/2011\/05\/17\/social-media-ipo\/\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p>And when I put LightInTheBox through the paces, it doesn&#8217;t exactly emerge unscathed&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>On the plus side, the company isn&#8217;t an unproven startup. It&#8217;s been around since late 2007. The $200 million in sales the company booked last year demonstrates its viability, too.<\/p>\n<p>And it&#8217;s growing impressively &#8211; with plenty more room to run.<\/p>\n<p>Sales increased at least 70% over the last three years. Yet it&#8217;s still only scratching the surface of the $521-billion global online retail market, which is expected to expand by 17.7% over the next three years, according to <em>Euromonitor<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>On the negative side, though, the company&#8217;s debt load is on the rise &#8211; up 114% in the last year, to almost $37 million.<\/p>\n<p>More significantly, the company is unprofitable.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s particularly troubling, especially since the company has done an admirable job of earning repeat business.<\/p>\n<p>Returning customers now account for roughly 25% of total sales.<\/p>\n<p>But what good is customer loyalty if it doesn&#8217;t translate into profits?<\/p>\n<p>It goes without saying that, without profits, the company&#8217;s share price is ultimately doomed. And I can&#8217;t say that profitability is definitely in the company&#8217;s future, either, since LightInTheBox doesn&#8217;t benefit from any meaningful or sustainable competitive advantages.<\/p>\n<p>Management wants us to believe otherwise. In the prospectus, they play up their ability to source products cheaply, largely because of the company&#8217;s location in China. But the problem is, China is becoming less and less of a source for low-cost goods. So that advantage is fleeting, at best.<\/p>\n<p>The company also boasts about its &#8220;proprietary technology platform that integrates every aspect of our business operations, including global marketing, online shopping platforms, supply chain management, fulfillment, logistics and customer service.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Yet it doesn&#8217;t own a <em>single<\/em> patent. So how proprietary and unique could its technology really be?<\/p>\n<p>Bottom line: LightInTheBox&#8217;s IPO promises to be anything but a slam dunk. In fact, underwriters would be well served to price the deal at a compelling valuation to increase the odds of aftermarket success.<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, I&#8217;ll be carefully monitoring its trading debut. Because a successful launch would signal the formation of a verifiable trend for Chinese IPOs. Something that should lead to more fundamentally sound Chinese companies joining the U.S. market &#8211; ones that will ultimately be worthy of our investment dollars.<\/p>\n<p>And since so few investors are paying attention to the latest developments, the potential profits should be that much higher.<\/p>\n<p>Ahead of the tape,<\/p>\n<p>Louis Basenese<\/p>\n<p>Article By <a href=\"http:\/\/WallStreetDaily.com\/\"><u>WallStreetDaily.com<\/u><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Original Article: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wallstreetdaily.com\/2013\/04\/24\/china-ipo-market\/\">The Most Unexpected Data Coming Out of Beijing<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By WallStreetDaily.com Here&#8217;s a shocker for you, straight from Beijing&#8230; No, I&#8217;m not talking about how China&#8217;s manufacturing growth unexpectedly cooled in March. Fears over a slowdown in the world&#8217;s second-largest economy are so yesterday&#8217;s news. Especially after we learned roughly two weeks ago that China&#8217;s GDP growth rate slid from 7.9% in the fourth &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/04\/24\/the-most-unexpected-data-coming-out-of-beijing\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The Most Unexpected Data Coming Out of Beijing&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37780","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37780"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37780\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37780"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}