{"id":37380,"date":"2013-04-08T08:17:52","date_gmt":"2013-04-08T12:17:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=37380"},"modified":"2013-04-08T08:17:52","modified_gmt":"2013-04-08T12:17:52","slug":"soros-says-golds-safe-haven-status-is-destroyed-as-small-speculators-slash-bullish-bets-on-futures-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/04\/08\/soros-says-golds-safe-haven-status-is-destroyed-as-small-speculators-slash-bullish-bets-on-futures-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Soros Says Gold’s Safe-Haven Status Is “Destroyed” as Small Speculators Slash Bullish Bets on Futures Market"},"content":{"rendered":"

London Gold Market Report<\/strong>
\nfrom Adrian Ash<\/strong>
\nBullionVault<\/strong><\/a>
\nMon 8 Apr, 08:00 EST<\/strong><\/p>\n

The GOLD PRICE ticked lower against the US Dollar early Monday, but held onto the bulk
\nof Friday’s sharp rally at $1577 per ounce as world stock markets rose alongside commodities.<\/p>\n

Silver bullion traded at $27.30 per ounce, some 2.5% above last week’s 9-month low, while
\nboth Sterling and the Euro extended their gains versus the US currency, pushing the gold
\nprice below \u00a31030 and \u20ac1215 per ounce respectively.<\/p>\n

Major-government bond prices eased back, but Portugal’s 10-year borrowing costs nudged up
\nto 6.40% after a court in Lisbon today rejected a plan to suspend state-salary and pension
\npayments for one month.<\/p>\n

Prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho responded by vowing a new round of spending cuts as
\nhe seeks to meet the terms of 2011’s bailout by Eurozone partners, the International Monetary
\nFund and the European Central Bank worth \u20ac78 billion.<\/p>\n

Head of the IMF Christine Lagarde today called the Bank of Japan’s new $1.4 trillion
\nprogram of quantitative easing “a welcome step”.<\/p>\n

What one Japanese fund manager calls Tokyo’s “bazooka” has seen the Nikkei stock index
\nrise 9.9% over the last four sessions.<\/p>\n

“[Gold] has disappointed the public,” says currency speculator and hedge-fund manager
\nGeorge Soros, speaking to the South China Morning Post, “because it is meant to be the
\nultimate safe haven.<\/p>\n

“But when the Euro was close to collapsing in the last year…gold was destroyed as a safe
\nhaven, proved to be unsafe…Gold is very volatile on a day-to-day basis [with] no trend on a
\nlonger-term basis.”<\/p>\n

Daily volatility in the US Dollar gold price has averaged less than 20% over the last 5 years.
\nThe S&P stock-market index shows average volatility of 21%.<\/p>\n

Soros called gold “the ultimate bubble” in February 2010. Rising 75% over the following 18
\nmonths, its price stands more than 43% higher today.<\/p>\n

“There is still strong physical demand with the gold price below $1600,” says the latest
\nCommodities Quarterly from Standard Bank’s analysts, pointing to their Gold Physical Flow
\nindex, which remains well above both the 2012 and four-year average levels for the year so
\nfar.<\/p>\n

Trimming their 2013 average forecast from $1720 per ounce to $1700, “We still view the two
\ndominant drivers for gold as real interest rates and global liquidity,” the Standard Bank team<\/p>\n

go on, noting a near-2% rise in central bank reserves worldwide year on year.<\/p>\n

“Our supply and demand forecast implies [a] tight [market] as well as a decline in supply in
\nthe long term.”<\/p>\n

Looking at the price charts, however, “Gold is still in a bearish trend,” says Friday’s note
\nfrom technical analysts at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta, “with support at the base of the
\nmassive 18-month consolidation pattern, in the $1522 area.<\/p>\n

“Should we break through, it will open up a move to the $1300 level.”<\/p>\n

Looking at positioning by professional money-managers and speculators in gold
\nfutures, “Much of the downside is already priced in,” reckons a note from Credit Suisse this
\nmorning.<\/p>\n

What analysts call the “net long” position of non-industry players in US gold derivatives was
\nlittle changed at the equivalent of 415 tonnes in the week-ending last Tuesday, new data from
\nUS commodity futures regulators said late Friday.<\/p>\n

That compares with a 5-year average of more than 700 tonnes equivalent, and is 60% smaller
\nthan the peak hit in August 2011.<\/p>\n

As a group, so-called “small speculators” \u2013 meaning mostly private traders rather than hedge
\nfunds or other managed accounts \u2013 now hold fewer than 1.7 bullish contracts for every bet
\nthey hold that the gold price will fall.<\/p>\n

That compares to a 5-year average of 2.3 and a peak of 3.9 in September 2012.<\/p>\n

Adrian Ash<\/strong><\/span><\/a>
\nBullionVault<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market
\nfor private investors online, where you can buy gold and silver in Zurich, Switzerland for just
\n0.5% commission.<\/p>\n

(c) BullionVault 2013<\/p>\n

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best
\nplace for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information
\nor data included here may have already been overtaken by events \u2013 and must be verified
\nelsewhere \u2013 should you choose to act on it.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

London Gold Market Report from Adrian Ash BullionVault Mon 8 Apr, 08:00 EST The GOLD PRICE ticked lower against the US Dollar early Monday, but held onto the bulk of Friday’s sharp rally at $1577 per ounce as world stock markets rose alongside commodities. Silver bullion traded at $27.30 per ounce, some 2.5% above last … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Soros Says Gold’s Safe-Haven Status Is “Destroyed” as Small Speculators Slash Bullish Bets on Futures Market”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37380"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37380\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}