{"id":36571,"date":"2013-03-01T17:39:45","date_gmt":"2013-03-01T22:39:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=36571"},"modified":"2013-03-01T17:39:45","modified_gmt":"2013-03-01T22:39:45","slug":"viva-sequester","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/03\/01\/viva-sequester\/","title":{"rendered":"Viva Sequester!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>America missed an asteroid. It dodged a depression. It sidestepped<br \/>\nthe Mayan&#8217;s End-of-the-World curse. But the &#8220;sequester&#8221; strikes Planet<br \/>\nAmerica today.<\/p>\n<p>Thursday morning, the Dow was headed for an all-time high based on two rationales.<\/p>\n<p>First, housing seems to be in a real recovery. Here in Delray a business partner told us:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><em>It&#8217;s unbelievable. Prices are almost<br \/>\nback up to where they were before the crisis. I used to buy houses and<br \/>\napartment buildings for 5 times rental income. That was a good deal. But<br \/>\nnow, I can&#8217;t get those deals. Too many buyers in the market.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><em>But Delray is special. It&#8217;s a very strong market.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The second rationale for a stock market boom was announced by Ben Bernanke. He&#8217;ll keep <a title=\"The Curse of Leadership\" href=\"http:\/\/www.billbonnersdiary.com\/articles\/bonner-leaders-europe.html\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>printing money<\/strong><\/a>, he told the Senate, come Hell or High Water, whichever comes first.<\/p>\n<h3 align=\"center\">The End Is Near<\/h3>\n<p>With the Fed behind it, stock market bulls felt sure the Dow would<br \/>\nhit a new record yesterday. But it didn&#8217;t. Instead, it backed away from<br \/>\nWednesday&#8217;s gains. Yesterday, the Dow went down 20 points in<br \/>\nanticipation. Gold dropped too&#8230; adding to the confusion.<\/p>\n<p>Why?<\/p>\n<p>When Congress passed the Budget Control Act of 2011, it kicked the<br \/>\ncan down the road&#8230; to the first of March 2013. That&#8217;s when the dreaded<br \/>\n&#8220;sequester&#8221; was supposed to happen. Automatic U.S. government budget<br \/>\ncuts are meant to be triggered&#8230; cutting off &#8220;demand&#8221; for certain<br \/>\npublic and private services.<\/p>\n<p>To hear some in the press and the government describe it, this<br \/>\nsequester will be the end of life as we have known it. The feds will<br \/>\nlack money for the basic services that maintain civilized life. After<br \/>\ntomorrow, the borders will be opened&#8230; terrorists will launch an<br \/>\nassault on Washington&#8230; old people will drop dead in hospitals&#8230;<br \/>\ncancer cures will be abandoned&#8230; troops won&#8217;t be fed&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230; and worst of all&#8230; the Zombie Apocalypse will begin&#8230; with<br \/>\nmillions of zombies marching on Washington in search of money they never<br \/>\nearned.<\/p>\n<p>Well, you know that this is nonsense. But you may not realize how<br \/>\npreposterous it is. Even with the sequester, spending still goes up. The<br \/>\ndifference between the sequestered budget and the non-sequestered<br \/>\nbudget is trivial.<\/p>\n<p>For Krugman, Bernanke, Stiglitz et al. the worst thing that can<br \/>\nhappen to an economy is a fall in &#8220;demand.&#8221; And they see it coming<br \/>\ntoday!<\/p>\n<p>The <a title=\"Federal Finances Are Doomed (Sequester or No Sequester)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.billbonnersdiary.com\/articles\/bonner-facts-history.html\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>sequester<\/strong><\/a><br \/>\nreduces &#8220;demand&#8221; from the federal government. But that is a good thing.<br \/>\nWhen the depression of 1920-21 struck, Presidents Warren Harding and<br \/>\nCalvin Coolidge had no Nobel Prize-winning neo-Keynesian economists to<br \/>\nhelp them. So they had to use common sense. They simply cut the burden<br \/>\nof government \u2013 reducing taxes and cutting (sequestering) government<br \/>\nspending.<\/p>\n<p>Result? The depression was over within two years. Full employment was restored. GDP roared ahead.<\/p>\n<p>But today&#8217;s leading economists are convinced that they know better.<br \/>\nThey believe &#8220;sequester&#8221; means less demand. And less demand is bad.<\/p>\n<h3 align=\"center\">Mushy Thinking<\/h3>\n<p>Meanwhile, on the front page of <em>The Wall Street Journal<\/em>, more mushy thinking. Describing Japan&#8217;s economic problem:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><em>&#8230; the country&#8217;s economy is stagnating because prices are stuck at 1980s levels.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Come again?<\/p>\n<p>Prices are &#8220;stuck.&#8221; Is that any different from saying prices are<br \/>\nstable? No, it isn&#8217;t. In Japan, consumer prices are about the same today<br \/>\nas they were 30 years ago. According to the sages at the <em>WSJ<\/em>, that too is a bad thing; it causes economic stagnation. Why? Because it cuts demand!<\/p>\n<p>Oh dear, dear reader&#8230; only a person who has studied economics could<br \/>\nbelieve such a silly thing. In America especially, the economics<br \/>\nprofession has led itself into mush. It believes that what really<br \/>\nmatters is &#8220;demand&#8221; and that rising prices encourage it. It also<br \/>\nbelieves that the role of <a title=\"Financial Drone Attack!\" href=\"http:\/\/www.billbonnersdiary.com\/articles\/bonner-drones-feds.html\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>policymakers<\/strong><\/a> is essentially demand management.<\/p>\n<p>When prices go up, people don&#8217;t want to save&#8230; and don&#8217;t want to<br \/>\nwait. They know they&#8217;ll get their best deal now. So, they spend. Demand<br \/>\nincreases.<\/p>\n<p>Rising prices also mislead investors and households on the other side<br \/>\nof the ledger. They see their investments going up. They see their<br \/>\nincome rising. They figure they can spend more. Demand increases.<\/p>\n<p>Anyone who thinks about it seriously knows that there is more to a<br \/>\ngood economy than just demand. Spending isn&#8217;t what makes a healthy<br \/>\neconomy. It&#8217;s saving. Building capital. And using the capital to earn<br \/>\nprofits and pay wages.<\/p>\n<p>Demand is what you get as a result of saving and investment&#8230; not<br \/>\nthe other way around. There is no real demand, in other words, until you<br \/>\nhave wealth. Wealth allows you to spend. Real demand goes up.<\/p>\n<p>But if you try to push up demand without adding real wealth you are<br \/>\njust wasting your time. Or worse, you&#8217;re tricking everyone in the<br \/>\neconomy and causing them to make mistakes.<\/p>\n<p>Which brings us back to prices that are &#8220;stuck.&#8221; Stable prices are a<br \/>\ngood thing. They make it easy to tell where you are and where you&#8217;re<br \/>\ngoing. If, for example, your income is &#8220;stuck&#8221; and your wealth is<br \/>\n&#8220;stuck&#8221;&#8230; then you should be stuck too. Spending more money you don&#8217;t<br \/>\nhave is not the way to unstick yourself.<\/p>\n<p>Sequester? Bring it on!<\/p>\n<p>Regards,<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Bill Bonner\" alt=\"Bill Bonner\" src=\"https:\/\/www.insidersstrategygroup.com\/images\/web\/bbonner-sig.gif\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bill<\/p>\n<p><span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.billbonnersdiary.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/www.billbonnersdiary.<wbr \/>com\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>America missed an asteroid. It dodged a depression. It sidestepped the Mayan&#8217;s End-of-the-World curse. But the &#8220;sequester&#8221; strikes Planet America today. Thursday morning, the Dow was headed for an all-time high based on two rationales. First, housing seems to be in a real recovery. Here in Delray a business partner told us: It&#8217;s unbelievable. Prices &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/03\/01\/viva-sequester\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Viva Sequester!&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36571","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36571"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36571\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36571"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36571"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36571"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}