{"id":35965,"date":"2013-02-06T00:52:39","date_gmt":"2013-02-06T05:52:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=35965"},"modified":"2013-02-06T08:30:52","modified_gmt":"2013-02-06T13:30:52","slug":"dont-be-long-and-wrong-on-this-stock-market-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/02\/06\/dont-be-long-and-wrong-on-this-stock-market-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Don\u2019t be Long and Wrong on this Stock Market Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By <a href=\"http:\/\/www.MoneyMorning.com.au\" target=\"_blank\"><u>MoneyMorning.com.au<\/u><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>In today&#8217;s <em>Money Morning<\/em> I&#8217;ll show you why late-comers to the recent stock market rally shouldn&#8217;t panic. As I&#8217;ll explain, the market is at a key point that will likely catch a lot of investors and traders off guard.<\/p>\n<p><span id=\"more-21637\"><\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Don&#8217;t Chase This Stock Market Higher<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p>As the All Ordinaries continues to rally I&#8217;m sure there are plenty of people with itchy trigger fingers wanting to join in the fun. All I can say is step back and look at the big picture.<\/p>\n<p>I may not have seen this stock market rally coming but I do have enough experience to know when a market has become an accident waiting to happen.<\/p>\n<p>This weekly chart shows you that the S&#038;P\/ASX 200 is now nudging up against the 4950-5000 region where it has failed five times in the past three and a half years. It is also approaching this area with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) the most overbought it has been since mid-2007 just prior to the crash.<\/p>\n<h4>ASX 200 Weekly Chart<\/h4>\n<\/p>\n<div align=\"center\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/images\/mm20130206a_lge.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/images\/mm20130206a_sml.jpg\" alt=\"ASX 200 Weekly Chart\" border=\"0\"><\/a><br \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/images\/mm20130206a_lge.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Click here<\/a> to enlarge<\/div>\n<p><em><\/p>\n<div align=\"center\">Source: Slipstream Trader<\/div>\n<p><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Even if we&#8217;re heading higher in the long run, there is a strong technical case that this market should at the very least have a substantial correction from here. It&#8217;s still early days and the momentum is still firmly up but the music can stop very quickly at major resistance levels such as this.<\/p>\n<p>So if you&#8217;re panicking that you need to buy high yielding stocks now or be left for dead, don&#8217;t panic. Just be patient and you&#8217;ll get an opportunity to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/20110212\/how-to-buy-and-sell-shares.html\" title=\"How to Buy and Sell Shares\">buy stocks<\/a> at a cheaper level than here. Just remember that we&#8217;re heading into earnings season and a dose of reality may stop this stock market rally in its tracks.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, I sat down with Kris Sayce the other day to chat about the current state of the stock market and what the charts were showing me in a strategy session which is reserved for paying subscribers.<\/p>\n<p>(<strong>Ed note<\/strong>: you can get access to Murray&#8217;s latest Strategy Session plus gain access to the Strategy Sessions archives by taking out an obligation-free subscription to our best value investment advisory, Nick Hubble&#8217;s <em>Money for Life Letter<\/em>. <a href=\"http:\/\/pro.portphillippublishing.com.au\/n10mfllaunch\/WMFLP204\/\" target=\"_blank\">Click here for details&#8230;<\/a>)<\/p>\n<div align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/images\/mm20130206b.jpg\" alt=\"\" border=\"0\"><\/div>\n<p><em><\/p>\n<div align=\"center\">Source: Port Phillip Publishing<\/div>\n<p><\/em><\/p>\n<p>During our chat I showed Kris that one of Australia&#8217;s biggest stocks has hit a key inflection point. It&#8217;s key because eight of the past 10 times that this set-up has occurred, the stock has fallen. In one case by 25% in four months.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s a big drop, and with the odds in favour of it happening again (my <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/category\/stock-market\/share-trading\" title=\"more on share trading\">share trading<\/a> is based on the balance of probabilities) a lot of  traders and investors will be caught out.<\/p>\n<p>As I like to say, they&#8217;ll be &#8216;long and wrong&#8217; and they&#8217;ll pay for it with big losses.<\/p>\n<p>So if you&#8217;re feeling that you&#8217;ve missed the stock market rally, don&#8217;t panic; another <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/best-investment-opportunities\" title=\"Australian investment opportunities\">investment opportunity<\/a> to buy at a better price isn&#8217;t far away.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/about-murray-dawes\" title=\"About Murray Dawes\">Murray Dawes<\/a><br \/>\nEditor, <em>Slipstream Trader<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/u\/6\/112964252932450058553\/posts\" title=\"Join Murray Dawes on Google Plus\"><strong><u>Join me on Google Plus<\/u><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>From the Port Phillip Publishing Library<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Special Report: <a href=\"http:\/\/pro.portphillippublishing.com.au\/p01bigstock\/WASIP205\/\" target=\"_blank\">How to Hunt Down 2013&#8242;s Biggest Stock Market Winners<\/a>  <\/p>\n<p>Daily Reckoning: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyreckoning.com.au\/market-migrations-the-hunt-for-capital-gains\/2013\/02\/05\/\" target=\"_blank\">Market Migrations: The Hunt for Capital Gains<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Money Morning: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/20130205\/how-to-pick-stocks-at-a-fair-price.html\" target=\"_blank\">How to Pick Stocks at a Fair Price<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Pursuit of Happiness: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pursuitofhappiness.com.au\/index.php\/retirement\/its-time-to-set-your-retirement-gameplan\/3895\/\" target=\"_blank\">It&#8217;s Time to Set Your Retirement Gameplan<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"feedflare\">\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?a=jWkLAHuGZzA:V9d9AcZrg1k:yIl2AUoC8zA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?d=yIl2AUoC8zA\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?a=jWkLAHuGZzA:V9d9AcZrg1k:V_sGLiPBpWU\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?i=jWkLAHuGZzA:V9d9AcZrg1k:V_sGLiPBpWU\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?a=jWkLAHuGZzA:V9d9AcZrg1k:gIN9vFwOqvQ\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?i=jWkLAHuGZzA:V9d9AcZrg1k:gIN9vFwOqvQ\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/MoneyMorningAustralia\/~4\/jWkLAHuGZzA\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By MoneyMorning.com.au In today&#8217;s Money Morning I&#8217;ll show you why late-comers to the recent stock market rally shouldn&#8217;t panic. As I&#8217;ll explain, the market is at a key point that will likely catch a lot of investors and traders off guard. Don&#8217;t Chase This Stock Market Higher As the All Ordinaries continues to rally I&#8217;m &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2013\/02\/06\/dont-be-long-and-wrong-on-this-stock-market-rally\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Don\u2019t be Long and Wrong on this Stock Market Rally&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35965","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35965"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35965\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35965"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35965"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35965"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}