{"id":33402,"date":"2012-11-08T22:31:32","date_gmt":"2012-11-09T03:31:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/2012\/11\/apra-spins-another-yarn-on-australian-banks\/"},"modified":"2012-11-08T22:31:32","modified_gmt":"2012-11-09T03:31:32","slug":"apra-spins-another-yarn-on-australian-banks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2012\/11\/08\/apra-spins-another-yarn-on-australian-banks\/","title":{"rendered":"APRA Spins Another Yarn On Australian Banks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>By <a href=\"http:\/\/www.MoneyMorning.com.au\" target=\"_blank\">MoneyMorning.com.au<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With all the evidence showing the overseas banking system is on the edge of collapse, <strong>Australia&#8217;s banking regulator (APRA)<\/strong> insists on spinning the yarn that <strong>Australian banks<\/strong> are just fine, so don&#8217;t worry about anything.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s <em>Australian<\/em> reports:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><em><br \/>\n         &#8216;Australia&#8217;s biggest banks would survive a global economic disaster that included a disorderly resolution in Europe, a double-dip recession in the US and slump in Chinese growth, under a new scenario modelled by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority.&#8217;<br \/>\n    <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>That&#8217;s great news. Let&#8217;s look at the stress test and the modelling. We wish you could. But you can&#8217;t. The only analysis anyone can do of the banking stress test is to read the transcript of John Laker&#8217;s (APRA chairman) speech to the AB+F Randstad Leaders Lecture.<\/p>\n<p><span><\/span><br \/>\nThe transcript runs to 12 pages. But there&#8217;s no real analysis. All you&#8217;ll get from the speech is what they tell you&#8230;nothing else. APRA refuses to answer <em>any<\/em> questions regarding the stress tests.<\/p>\n<p>All we know is the <em>&#8216;key macroeconomic parameters&#8217;<\/em> used in the stress test. These were:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A 5% drop in GDP in the first year of a crisis<\/li>\n<li>A rise in unemployment to a peak of 12%<\/li>\n<li>A peak to trough fall in house prices of 35%<\/li>\n<li>A fall in commercial property prices of 40%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>According to APRA&#8217;s stress test the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyreckoning.com.au\/australian-banks-at-risk-to-the-core\/2012\/10\/26\/ \">Australian banks<\/a> would have made big losses but they would not collapse.<\/p>\n<p>The <em>&#8216;key macroeconomic parameters&#8217;<\/em> are great. But they&#8217;re also useless. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyreckoning.com.au\/faith-in-untrustworthy-numbers-how-economists-missed-the-crisis\/2012\/07\/20\/ \">What mainstream economists forget<\/a> is that an economy is comprised of individuals&#8230;and each individual acts in a way that isn&#8217;t always predictable.<\/p>\n<h2><center>Sorry APRA &#8211; People are Independent Thinkers<\/h2>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Even the most sheepish of people will react in ways you can&#8217;t always predict. You can&#8217;t put human behaviour in a spreadsheet and accurately predict the future.<\/p>\n<p>For instance, APRA won&#8217;t reveal if they&#8217;ve taken into account the probability that investors will withdraw savings from banks during a banking or financial crisis.<\/p>\n<p>APRA also won&#8217;t reveal the level of savings withdrawals that would create problems for the banking sector. We know that if savers try to withdraw 100% of savings, the banking system would collapse&#8230;but what about 50%, 30% or 10% of savings? At which point would this create problems for banks?<\/p>\n<p>Well, we already know the answer. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/20120821\/the-bloody-oaths-and-balance-sheet-imbalances-of-australian-banks.html \">Australian banks<\/a> only have about 4% of savers&#8217; money in cash or cash-like instruments. In other words, if all savers demand more than 4% of their savings in cash, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyreckoning.com.au\/why-australian-banks-will-no-longer-be-a-defensive-play\/2012\/06\/29\/ \">Aussie banks would need to borrow money<\/a> from the central bank.<\/p>\n<p>So imagine what will happen when the real financial crisis hits. Try withdrawing more than a few thousand dollars from a bank branch now&#8230;they&#8217;ll look at you like you&#8217;re a criminal&#8230; <em>&#8216;What do you want the money for? Why do you need it?&#8217;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>When the real financial crisis hits, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyreckoning.com.au\/how-australian-banks-use-covered-bonds-to-play-a-dangerous-game\/2012\/02\/27\/\">Australian banks will limit withdrawals<\/a>. Just as US banks did in the north east during Superstorm Sandy.<\/p>\n<p>Yet APRA refuses to reveal any details of its banking stress tests. All you&#8217;ll ever know is what APRA chooses to tell you. And not surprisingly, the mainstream press gladly accepts this, repeats the &#8216;good news&#8217; and moves on.<\/p>\n<p>Anyone who thinks the Australian paper money and banking system can survive while it collapses the world over is seriously deluded.<\/p>\n<p>APRA can chirp as much as it likes about the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyreckoning.com.au\/australian-banks-at-risk-to-the-core\/2012\/10\/26\/ \">safety of Australian banks<\/a>. But you only have to look at the state of the banking system overseas to see that the<a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyreckoning.com.au\/nab-and-australian-banking-is-oversized-and-under-pressure\/2012\/10\/22\/ \"> Australian banking industry<\/a> (if you pardon the pun) is living on borrowed time.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Cheers,<br \/>\nKris<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>From the Port Phillip Publishing Library<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Special Report:<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/pro.portphillippublishing.com.au\/n10mfllaunch\/EMFLNB24\/\" target=\"_blank\">Retire Rich, Happy and Free From Money Worries<\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Daily Reckoning<\/em>:<br \/>\n <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyreckoning.com.au\/the-superannuation-gravy-train\/2012\/11\/08\/\" target=\"_blank\">The Superannuation Gravy Train<\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Money Morning<\/em>:<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/20121108\/tell-the-rba-to-shove-itinvest-without-taking-big-risks.html\" target=\"_blank\">Tell the RBA to Shove It&#8230;Invest Without Taking Big Risks<\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Pursuit of Happiness<\/em>:<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.pursuitofhappiness.com.au\/index.php\/liberty\/how-are-you-wasting-your-valuable-time\/3352\/\" target=\"_blank\">How Are You Wasting Your Valuable Time?<\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Australian Small-Cap Investigator<\/em>:<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.australiansmall-capinvestigator.com.au\/what-are-small-cap-stocks-an-introduction-to-small-cap-investing\">How to Make Money From Small-Cap Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?a=_SXU03OjRQk:wz0RWuH11NA:yIl2AUoC8zA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?d=yIl2AUoC8zA\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?a=_SXU03OjRQk:wz0RWuH11NA:V_sGLiPBpWU\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?i=_SXU03OjRQk:wz0RWuH11NA:V_sGLiPBpWU\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?a=_SXU03OjRQk:wz0RWuH11NA:gIN9vFwOqvQ\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?i=_SXU03OjRQk:wz0RWuH11NA:gIN9vFwOqvQ\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/MoneyMorningAustralia\/~4\/_SXU03OjRQk\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\" \/><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feedproxy.google.com\/~r\/MoneyMorningAustralia\/~3\/_SXU03OjRQk\/apra-spins-another-yarn-on-australian-banks.html\" target=\"_blank\">APRA Spins Another Yarn On Australian Banks <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By MoneyMorning.com.au With all the evidence showing the overseas banking system is on the edge of collapse, Australia&#8217;s banking regulator (APRA) insists on spinning the yarn that Australian banks are just fine, so don&#8217;t worry about anything. Today&#8217;s Australian reports: &#8216;Australia&#8217;s biggest banks would survive a global economic disaster that included a disorderly resolution in &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2012\/11\/08\/apra-spins-another-yarn-on-australian-banks\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;APRA Spins Another Yarn On Australian Banks&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33402","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33402"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33402\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33402"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}