{"id":31897,"date":"2012-08-28T01:35:12","date_gmt":"2012-08-28T05:35:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/2012\/08\/find-out-if-youre-a-speculator-value-investor-or-stock-trader\/"},"modified":"2012-08-28T01:35:12","modified_gmt":"2012-08-28T05:35:12","slug":"find-out-if-youre-a-speculator-value-investor-or-stock-trader","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2012\/08\/28\/find-out-if-youre-a-speculator-value-investor-or-stock-trader\/","title":{"rendered":"Find Out if You\u2019re a Speculator, Value Investor or Stock Trader"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>By <a href=\"http:\/\/www.MoneyMorning.com.au\" target=\"_blank\">MoneyMorning.com.au<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Finding a company to invest in can feel like you&#8217;re on the game show <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=d7gNwPCsk_o\" target=\"_blank\">Perfect Match<\/a><\/em>. <\/p>\n<p>It was a TV show where one lucky individual gets to choose between three hidden candidates for a date based on a short Q and A. The trick is to ask the right questions. And to not get the theme song stuck in your head.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s the same when you&#8217;re <strong>investing<\/strong>. What questions should you ask the companies you&#8217;re thinking about investing in? How do you figure out which is the best fit for you? And how do you shut out the &#8216;noise&#8217;&#8230;the distractions that can cause you to make the wrong decision?<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s <em>Money Morning<\/em> is about three types of investor: the <strong>speculative investor<\/strong>, the <strong>value investor<\/strong> and the <strong>technical analysis trader<\/strong>. Each of them uses a carefully thought out strategy to make their buying and selling decisions.<\/p>\n<p><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>So that you can see all three of them in action, we&#8217;ve thrown in a mystery stock for them to analyse&#8230;<\/p>\n<h3><center>Which Investor Are You? <\/h3>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the scenario: the company is recovering from prices not seen since the global financial crisis. It narrowly escaped the mining tax, but the main commodity it mines has taken a breather after a ten-year bull market. <\/p>\n<p>This year&#8217;s ordinary dividend is 17% higher than last year&#8217;s, and the company has just issued significant debt to fund operations.<\/p>\n<h3><center>The Speculative Investor<\/h3>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>What would the speculative investor say about such a stock? Well, speculators like triple-digit returns in short spaces of time. Those are much more common with smaller companies. <\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, the mystery stock isn&#8217;t exactly likely to double in value any time soon. It&#8217;s just too big and predictable already. Nothing much unexpected could happen here.<\/p>\n<p>But <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/20111223\/speculative-stocks-and-the-art-of-stock-speculation.html \">speculative investors<\/a> do like resource companies. That&#8217;s because the chances of big moves are very high, especially with explorers. <\/p>\n<p>Most speculators buy into a stock before the company pays a dividend. Speculators are after big gains, so that means buying the stock before the company has made a profit. <\/p>\n<p>Buying a stock at the early stage of exploration can mean big returns if the company strikes a resource&#8230;or it could mean a loss if the company <em>doesn&#8217;t<\/em> find a resource.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, will the company uncover a vast supply of profits, or a bottomless pit of costs?<\/p>\n<p>But some speculators look at bigger companies too, especially if the speculator can leverage their position using a margin loan, CFDs or options. So if the company is profitable, but it&#8217;s just hit a rough patch, it could be a stock worth looking at.<\/p>\n<h3><center>The Value Investor<\/h3>\n<p><c\/enter><\/p>\n<p>How about a value investor? They are more like bargain hunters than gamblers.<\/p>\n<p>They try and establish a value for a company based on its business. The question is, is the mystery stock a bargain or not? Here&#8217;s what this type of investor might look for:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Earnings history<\/li>\n<li>Book value relative to market prices<\/li>\n<li>Earnings forecast, and if it is reasonable<\/li>\n<li>Long term business prospects<\/li>\n<li>Debt<\/li>\n<li>Does the company have responsible management?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Having established a &#8216;fair value&#8217; share price, a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/20120220\/seth-klarman-the-world%E2%80%99s-greatest-living-value-investor.html \">value investor<\/a> would then look at the share price. If the shares are trading below the &#8216;fair value&#8217;, the stock may be a buy.<\/p>\n<p>Value investors also look at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyreckoning.com.au\/dividends-how-to-milk-the-stock-markets-cash-cows\/2012\/03\/20\/ \">dividends<\/a> as an important indicator. For our mystery stock, the company has a good record of raising dividends. It has also paid a special dividend, which tells you management aren&#8217;t afraid of returning cash to shareholders.<\/p>\n<p>You can look at a cash return in one of two ways: it&#8217;s bad because it indicates they can&#8217;t use the cash to expand the business, or it&#8217;s good because it enhances returns.<\/p>\n<p>There are endless books written on the intricacies of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyreckoning.com.au\/the-art-of-value-investing-how-to-value-a-business-not-a-stock\/2012\/05\/10\/ \">value investing<\/a>. Warren Buffet is perhaps the world&#8217;s most famous value investor. But, unless you&#8217;re dedicated to valuing companies, going through the process can be time consuming.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s why value investors use a few short-cuts to make the analysis a bit easier. They use something called ratios. For example, the quick ratio compares current assets to current liabilities. It tells you if the company is safe in the short term.<\/p>\n<h3><center>The Stock Market Trader<\/h3>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Finally, what would a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/20120629\/the-hard-lesson-of-a-stock-trader-no-pain-no-gain.html \">stock market trader<\/a> make of this stock?<\/p>\n<p>Stock traders who use technical analysis reckon they can make predictions about a company&#8217;s share price, just by looking at a company&#8217;s price history. They look for patterns and other hints that have signalled price trends in the past.<\/p>\n<p>The other integral part of successful trading is a risk management strategy to make sure that wins add up over time.<\/p>\n<p>For a technical trader, it&#8217;s not as important to know about the balance sheet or profit and loss (although it does play a part for some traders). The trader is more interested in the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyreckoning.com.au\/investment-theory-on-human-action-and-price-action\/2012\/06\/25\/ \">price action<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In the case of our mystery stock, if it had fallen another five dollars from its lows last month, it would have hit its 2009 low. When a share price hits an important price level (such as a previous high or low) it gives the trader a clue on where the share price is headed next.<\/p>\n<h3><center>One Stock, Three Different Approaches<\/h3>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>So, what is our mystery stock? And who should <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/20120409\/why-you-must-speculate.html \">speculate<\/a>, invest or trade it?<\/p>\n<p>The stock is <strong>Newcrest Ltd [ASX: NCM]:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div align=\"center\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/images\/mm20120828a-lgr.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/images\/mm20120828a-sml.jpg\" alt=\"\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/images\/mm20120828a-lgr.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><em>Click to enlarge<\/em><\/a><\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><em>Source: CMC Markets Stockbroking<\/em><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p>The truth is, it probably has a bit of something for every type of investor. <\/p>\n<p>The speculator could make a few quick bucks if the price rallies higher with a rising <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/20120824\/read-this-gold-price-warning-before-you-buy-another-stock.html \">gold price<\/a>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>The value investor could see a bargain buying a profitable resources company where the share price has fallen 32% in a year&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>And the trader could profit along with the speculator if the share price reverts to its longer term trend&#8230;or short sell if he or she thinks the price could continue the short term down trend.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s interesting to see how many different ways you can look at a single stock.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s very rare to find companies that suit all the types of analysis. But one of the good things about the stock market is that you can usually find a company that fits whatever it is you&#8217;re looking for.<\/p>\n<p>The question is, what are you looking for? Do you want a short-term trade? Do you want the thrills and spills of a volatile <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/20120618\/small-cap-stocks-a-thrilling-risk.html \">small-cap<\/a>? Or are you looking to invest part of your <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyreckoning.com.au\/the-fallback-investment-strategy-your-retirement-needs\/2012\/04\/26\/ \">retirement<\/a> fund?<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s easy to go astray if you don&#8217;t start with a clear goal and method in mind. That&#8217;s what separates the good investors from the broke ones. Establishing a strategy and sticking to it.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Nick Hubble<br \/>\nEditor, Money Morning <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>PS. <\/strong><em>Sound Money. Sound Investments<\/em> editor, Greg Canavan, is a value investor. But he doesn&#8217;t just look at individual companies, he also looks at the big picture too. And right now there&#8217;s one economic story he just can&#8217;t ignore. In fact, he has prepared an extensive report on the biggest threat the Australian economy faces, and what you can do about it&#8230;whatever type of investor you are. You can find it <a href=\"http:\/\/portphillippublishing.com.au\/pro\/n07chinab2.php?code=ESMSN867&amp;n=n07chinab2\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Related Articles<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.portphillippublishing.com.au\/research\/vp\/ASI\/n04puntparareg-nwbg-tp.php?code=W9AAN302\" target=\"_blank\">Market Pullback Exposes Five Stocks to Buy<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/20120824\/read-this-gold-price-warning-before-you-buy-another-stock.html\" target=\"_blank\">Read This Gold Price Warning Before You Buy Another Stock<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymorning.com.au\/20120824\/stocks-are-up-is-it-a-good-time-to-buy.html\" target=\"_blank\">Stocks Are Up &#8211; Is it a Good Time to Buy?<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?a=TWfyia5DY_E:JLt08nyN7v4:yIl2AUoC8zA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?d=yIl2AUoC8zA\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?a=TWfyia5DY_E:JLt08nyN7v4:V_sGLiPBpWU\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?i=TWfyia5DY_E:JLt08nyN7v4:V_sGLiPBpWU\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?a=TWfyia5DY_E:JLt08nyN7v4:gIN9vFwOqvQ\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/MoneyMorningAustralia?i=TWfyia5DY_E:JLt08nyN7v4:gIN9vFwOqvQ\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/MoneyMorningAustralia\/~4\/TWfyia5DY_E\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\" \/><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feedproxy.google.com\/~r\/MoneyMorningAustralia\/~3\/TWfyia5DY_E\/find-out-if-youre-a-speculator-value-investor-or-stock-trader.html\" target=\"_blank\">Find Out if You\u2019re a Speculator, Value Investor or Stock Trader <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By MoneyMorning.com.au Finding a company to invest in can feel like you&#8217;re on the game show Perfect Match. It was a TV show where one lucky individual gets to choose between three hidden candidates for a date based on a short Q and A. The trick is to ask the right questions. And to not &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2012\/08\/28\/find-out-if-youre-a-speculator-value-investor-or-stock-trader\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Find Out if You\u2019re a Speculator, Value Investor or Stock Trader&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31897","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31897","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31897"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31897\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31897"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31897"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31897"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}