{"id":29263,"date":"2012-04-25T07:04:18","date_gmt":"2012-04-25T11:04:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/forex-news\/?p=29263"},"modified":"2012-04-25T07:04:18","modified_gmt":"2012-04-25T11:04:18","slug":"european-central-bank-great-white-fear-takes-a-bite-out-of-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2012\/04\/25\/european-central-bank-great-white-fear-takes-a-bite-out-of-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"European Central Bank: &#8220;Great White Fear&#8221; Takes A Bite Out of Recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><span style=\"font-size: small;\">EWI&#8217;s Global Market Perspective foresaw the shift in European banks from lenders to savers via one remarkable chart <\/span><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/h3>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: small;\">By Elliott Wave International<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>It&#8217;s been over two years since the European Central Bank began its open-heart surgery of the eurozone&#8217;s anemic economy. So far, the procedure has included an unprecedented $3 trillion-plus in bailouts, monetary transfusions, AND toxic debt transplants.<\/p>\n<p>Yet, according to a recent slew of discomforting news reports, the economies across the pond would still flatline in seconds without constant life support. Here, an April 18, 2012, <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em> writes:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;Europe Hemorrhages through Refinancing Operation Band-Aid&#8221;<\/em> and reveals that Europe&#8217;s banking sector has wolfed down three years of Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) in under four months.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The question is &#8212; what went wrong?<\/p>\n<p>Well, to answer this, we have to go back to the drawing board to mid-2010. It was then that the European Central Bank and company released the <strong>rescue-package Kraken<\/strong> via a $1 trillion bailout of Greece and a full-fledged initiation of its LTRO.<\/p>\n<p>And, as the following May 10, 2010, news items make plain, this credit-reflating beast was set to tear Europe&#8217;s economic bear to shreds:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>&#8220;This is shock-and-awe, part II, in 3D, with a much bigger budget and more impressive array of special effects. The EU package eliminates the danger that Greece&#8217;s debt woes will ricochet through Europe&#8217;s banks.&#8221;<\/em> (USA Today)<\/li>\n<li><em>&#8220;This is a truly overwhelming force and should be more than sufficient to stabilize markets, prevent panic and contain the risk of contagion.&#8221;<\/em> (Bloomberg Businessweek)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In the <strong>July 2010<\/strong> <em>Global Market Perspective<\/em>, however, our analysts foresaw a fatal flaw in the plan. The first part was fine: The European Central Bank (ECB) bought packages of debt and resold them to smaller banks at a historically low interest rate.<\/p>\n<p>BUT the second part didn&#8217;t work out: Instead of rebundling those loans and passing them on to small businesses to stimulate investment, THOSE banks redeposited the funds with the ECB. Riffing off the famous &#8220;Jaws&#8221; quote (<em>&#8220;We&#8217;re gonna need a bigger boat&#8221;<\/em>), the <strong>July 2010<\/strong> <em>Global Market Perspective<\/em> captured the great-white fear circling the lending sector via the following chart of commercial banks&#8217; usage of the ECB&#8217;s Deposit Facility and wrote:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;The chart roughly indicates the degree to which banks fear for the insolvency of one another. Banks receive below-market interest rates on their ECB deposits, so they&#8217;re generally loathe to hold significant funds there. As anxiety grows, however, so do banks&#8217; deposits in the Facility, mainly because their desire for adequate interest gives way to their more essential need to safeguard principal &#8230; <strong>Because the [economic downturn] is still young, deposits at the ECB will likely keep rising.<\/strong> Like stocks, the casual approach to banking that existed up until now is in for a massive shift.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/images\/freeupdates\/ecbdeposits1.JPG\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Flash two years ahead. The <strong>April 2012<\/strong> <em>Global Market Perspective&#8217;s<\/em> updated chart below shows that usage of the ECB&#8217;s Deposit Facility has indeed risen, nay doubled, since the original forecast.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/images\/freeupdates\/ecbdeposits2.JPG\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The question now is not whether monetary policy will save Europe&#8217;s economy, but whether the one precondition for recovery &#8212; confidence &#8212; will return to lenders.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"142\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa265&amp;dy=aa042312&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/club\/euro-credit-crisis.aspx?code=50753%26articleid=3081\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/images\/club\/web_ads\/4597-cg-euroclub.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"125\" height=\"150\" align=\"left\" border=\"0\" hspace=\"5\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<td width=\"921\"><strong>What the European Debt Crisis Could Mean for YOUR Investments<\/strong>The European Debt Crisis is affecting investments across the globe. Gain a valuable perspective on the European debt crisis and get ahead of what is yet to come in this FREE club resource from Elliott Wave International.<a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa265&amp;dy=aa042312&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/club\/euro-credit-crisis.aspx?code=50753%26articleid=3081\"><strong>Read Your Free Report Now: The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments.<\/strong><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<div>\n<p><em>This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline <a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa265&amp;dy=aa042312&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/freeupdates\/archives\/2012\/04\/20\/European-Central-Bank-%e2%80%9cGreat-White-Fear%e2%80%9d-Takes-A-Bite-Out-of-Recovery.aspx%26articleid=3081\"><strong>European Central Bank: &#8220;Great White Fear&#8221; Takes A Bite Out of Recovery<\/strong><\/a>. EWI is the world&#8217;s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EWI&#8217;s Global Market Perspective foresaw the shift in European banks from lenders to savers via one remarkable chart By Elliott Wave International It&#8217;s been over two years since the European Central Bank began its open-heart surgery of the eurozone&#8217;s anemic economy. So far, the procedure has included an unprecedented $3 trillion-plus in bailouts, monetary transfusions, &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/2012\/04\/25\/european-central-bank-great-white-fear-takes-a-bite-out-of-recovery\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;European Central Bank: &#8220;Great White Fear&#8221; Takes A Bite Out of Recovery&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29263","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29263"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29263\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29263"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29263"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29263"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}