InvestMacro Forex News

Source: ForexYard

The euro fell to a fresh 3 ½ month low against the US dollar in overnight trading as political uncertainty in Greece continues to weigh down on the common currency. In addition, crude oil reversed its gains from yesterday afternoon and is once again trading below $96 a barrel.

Main News for Today

UK PPI Input- 08:30 GMT
• Analysts are predicting that the figure will come in at -0.9%, well below last month’s 1.9%
• If true, the pound could extend its losses from last night against the USD and JPY

US PPI- 12:30 GMT
• The US PPI is forecasted to come in at 0.0%
• A better than expected figure could help the USD recover some of its losses vs. the JPY
• Positive figure could also lead to gains for crude oil

US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment- 13:55 GMT
• Consumer sentiment figure forecasted to come in at 76.4
• A better than expected figure could help the USD against JPY and give commodities like crude oil a boost to close out the week

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By MoneyMorning.com.au

‘Actioni contrariam semper et æqualem esse reactionem: sive corporum duorum actiones in se mutuo semper esse æquales et in partes contrarias dirigi.’ – Law Three, Principia Mathematica Philosophiae Naturalis, Sir Isaac Newton

Or to non-Latin speakers (including your editor)…

‘To every action there is always opposed an equal reaction: or the actions of two bodies upon each other are always equal, and in the parts directed to contrary.’

Apparently, this is a new idea to the guys and gals at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But thanks to ‘three decades’ of research, the boffins at the IMF have finally found out what Sir Isaac Newton knew 325 years ago.

That is, every action creates an opposite and equal reaction.

It’s Newton’s Third Law.

OK. Newton’s third law doesn’t directly relate to house prices. And strictly speaking, he’s not saying that what goes up must come down.

Even so, you can easily apply the words from the Third Law to asset price action. And we strongly suggest you pay close attention to them.

Because the latest IMF report (World Economic Growth 2012: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain) reveals the central bankers’ plan to ignore the laws of maths and physics. Instead, they’ve got their own ideas on how things should work.

Only this time, they assure you, things will be different…

We were stunned when we read this statement buried on page 89 of the latest IMF report:

‘Based on an analysis of advanced economies over the past three decades, we find that housing busts and recessions preceded by larger run-ups in household debt tend to be more severe and protracted.’

Really?

They’ve only just figured that out?

It’s taken them ‘three decades’?

Oy vey.

But that statement was nothing. We read on…

‘Based on case studies, we find that government policies can help prevent prolonged contractions in economic activity by addressing the problem of excessive household debt. In particular, bold household debt restructuring programs such as those implemented in the United States in the 1930s and in Iceland today can significantly reduce debt repayment burdens and the number of household defaults and foreclosures. Such policies can therefore help avert self-reinforcing cycles of household defaults, further house price declines, and additional contractions in output.’

Bottom line: it’s not the job of the State and the central banks to prevent asset bubbles. It’s the job of the State and central banks to inflate asset bubbles and then make sure they don’t burst.

How?

By implementing ‘bold household debt restructuring programs…’

You understand that’s shorthand. It means using private savings and taxpayer dollars to bail out those who get over their head in debt.

Of course, as we see it, the State and central banks cause the asset bubbles in the first place. So it’s no wonder there isn’t a peep from the IMF about government and central bank intervention causing price bubbles.

No, in their view the market causes all the problems and so the government must intervene.

Bubbles are good…busts are bad. That’s why they’re so keen to keep the ‘good’ stuff and get rid of the ‘bad’ stuff. Trouble is they ignore the fact that too much of the ‘good’ stuff causes the ‘bad’ stuff.

But the IMF commentary is more than just about house prices. It gives you a sneak peek inside the maniacal mind of central planners.

The Market is Sending Warning Signals

All around you, the market is screaming out. It’s sending warnings left, right and centre that something isn’t right. The message?

That the market needs a natural purge of all that’s bad…bad banks…bad economies…bad governments…bad central banks…

The whole darn lot needs a dose of economic Metamucil so world economies and the free market can start from scratch.

But that won’t happen anytime soon, because, as the IMF notes, it has a different take on things:

‘We also highlight the policy implications. In particular, we explain the circumstances under which government intervention can improve on a purely market-driven outcome.’

This morning Bloomberg News reports:

‘Spain said it would take over Bankia (BKIA) SA and may inject public funds into the banking group with the most Spanish real estate as the government prepares the fourth attempt to overhaul the financial system.’

According to the report, Spain will use 4.5 billion euros of taxpayer dollars to buy a 45% stake in Bankia.

And as the chart below shows, Spain’s biggest bank, Banco Santander, S.A. has fallen 64.2% since reaching a post-bust high in 2009:

Click here to enlarge

Meanwhile, in the U.S., JP Morgan Chase & Co. [NYSE: JPM] announced a USD$2 billion loss due to… ‘synthetic credit securities…’

The banks will never learn as long as they know there’s a government and central bank to provide the ultimate backstop.

And finally, Bloomberg News reports the following comments from U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, Dr. Ben S. Bernanke:

‘If no action were to be taken by the fiscal authorities, the size of the fiscal cliff is [so large that there’s] absolutely no chance that the Federal Reserve would have any ability whatsoever to offset that effect on the economy.’

In other words – you got it – the government must spend more so the economy keeps growing. And as a result, they delay the necessary bust yet again.

The Market Always Shines Through

As you know, Australia isn’t immune from central planning interference. Federal and State governments have spent billions propping up the Australian housing market.

And for what? Nothing. The stinking heap is slowly collapsing anyway.

The loudmouth spruikers who insisted it was impossible for Aussie house prices to fall are suddenly silent. They can’t explain it, ‘House prices always go up…I should know, I’ve seen it for the past 20 years!’

But as our old pal Steve Keen noted in a recent article, ‘Real house prices [adjusted for inflation] have fallen 10% since June 2010′:

All this tells you that regardless of how much central banks and governments intervene, the market will always shine through.

We’re not a fan of former U.K. PM, Margaret Thatcher, but she got one thing right: ‘You can’t buck the market.’

It’s just a shame to see so much taxpayer money wasted in order to save the bacon of politicians, bankers and other vested interests.

Cheers,
Kris.

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

Europe, Europe, Europe…

I know, you’re sick of hearing about Europe’s problems.

But the problem with Europe is that it won’t go away. And if it does go away, we’ll have even bigger problems. What a mess.

Of course, I’m talking about the Euro-currency zone and the European Union, not Europe itself.

I love Europe. I love every country in Europe. I love the different cultures. I love the different languages. I love the different societal models. I love the history of Europe.

And no doubt all the Europeans love all the same things about their Europe – except maybe some of their history. But even more than loving Europe, Europeans love their own countries. Why? Because they have different cultures, languages, societal models, and differing views of their history. Vive la différence!

So, whose bright idea was it to gloss over (with shiny promises and, later, a shiny new currency) thousands of years of differences and shove all Europeans into a funnel in the hopes that they’d all come out the other end as one homogeneous mass of humanity?

Oh, that would be the bankers and financiers who wanted a United States of Europe so that the free flow of goods and services payable with a common currency would make everyone better off, and make themselves better, better off, by a lot of betters.

And now, what a surprise!

The Mess Europe Created

There are differences all across Europe about, well, Europe and what it has become and where it has to go to get out of the mess it’s created for itself.

How that’s going to end is playing out right before our eyes.

And if there’s any comeuppance in the world, the bankers and political brokers who sold Europeans on “Funnel Europe” may just end up bankrupt.

Anyway, the gloss is coming off the game very quickly, and we’re seeing what’s going on.

But, once again, today, we’ve got another piece of the puzzle that’s fallen into our hands, so let’s look at it as a microcosm of what’s going on across Europe.

The double fantasy is that the little game that was played with Spain’s third-largest bank (by assets) is being played by the European Union’s euro-currency promoters. What’s the game? It’s more of a scheme than a game. And it has a name.

It’s called a Ponzi scheme.

The Spanish government is going to have to bail out Bankia, the No. 3 bank in the country, with a €188 billion book of “assets” which consists of €51.5 billion worth of property assets. (Don’t you love calling non-performing property loans “assets?”)

What you may not know is that Bankia is only two years old. It was formed by rolling up seven large, in-trouble cajas (essentially “local” savings banks or savings houses) who were in trouble because of – guess what – bad property assets.

But it gets better…

The bank was all glossed-up, like putting lipstick on a pig, and was taken public with a wink and a nod of the pompom-wielding and cheering government. Fully 60% of the stock that was sold was sold to savers – yeah, the same savers who were the cajas’ own customers. They were duped into believing that the property problems that they helped create, had been solved. Their stock is now down 40%. Nice.

The government has been saying, emphatically, that Spain’s banking system doesn’t need any additional money.

Everything is cajalicious. NOT.

What the crooks did was “renegotiate” non-performing, bad loans so their capital position looked better and they could draw in equity capital investors. “Renegotiated” means flim-flammery accounting. It means lying and cheating.

And guess what? Now Bankia has problems. And it’s going to have to be bailed out.

Bail Outs and Ponzi Schemes

Yeah, bailed out by the same government that supported renegotiating assets, rolling up the cajas and floating stock in the new Bankia. That’s a Ponzi scheme, folks.

And that’s what’s happening all across Europe. It’s a Ponzi scheme.

European banks are being given euros (okay they’re borrowing the money, but very cheaply) by the European Central Bank to buy the sovereign debts of their respective countries, which are backing the ECB and the banks that are in trouble.

Hmmm… Insolvent sovereigns backing illiquid banks buying sovereign debts with borrowed money from a central bank that’s backed by the same sovereigns?

Ponzi scheme. Goodnight.

Leave the lights on; it’s going to get a lot darker out there.

Shah Gilani
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in Wall Street Insight and Indictments

From the Archives…

Why China’s New Consumer Economy Won’t Give You the Trade of the Decade
2012-05-04 – Kris Sayce

Why China Could Be The Next Destination For the Financial Crisis
2012-05-03 – Merryn Somerset Webb

How Did We Get It So Wrong on Australian Housing?
2012-05-02 – Kris Sayce

This Indicator Shows the Copper Price Could Be Set to Soar
2012-05-01 – Dr. Alex Cowie

How Gold Nanoparticles Will Create A New Kind of Gold Rush
2012-04-30 – Michael Robinson

One Thing is Shoring Up Europe

By MoneyMorning.com.au

What I call the New Space Race is about to “take off” in a big way.

And front and centre is asteroid mining.

Yes, I mean literally digging into asteroids to extract ores and other materials.

Not long ago, this was the stuff of sci-fi. (It smacks of the 1998 movie Armageddon, in which a team of roughnecks lands on an asteroid on a collision course with Earth in order to blow it out of the sky.)

Today, it’s a reality, thanks to advances in three fields – low-cost computing, cheaper rockets, and advanced robotics.

Both private industry and the U.S. government want to extract a wide range of resources from asteroids. They are teeming with resources like iron and nickel. A rock the size of a football stadium contains more platinum than we have mined in all of world history.

And you won’t believe how much this stuff could be worth.

Remember, space is a target-rich field. To date we have discovered some 9,000 of these rocks that pass near Earth’s orbit. Of those, about 1,500 are just as easy to get to as the surface of the Moon. Moreover, they have light gravity, meaning space craft can land and take off easily.

Here’s the math that will blow your mind: A space rock the size of a museum gallery could contain resources worth $100 billion (according to the startup I’m about to tell you about).

If we hit pay dirt on all the close asteroids, they would be worth a combined $150 trillion. Don’t take my word for it. You can do the math yourself right here.

No doubt, many of those rocks will be dead ends. But if we could tap just 10%, that would total $15 trillion worth of resources. (And if we’re being even more conservative, just a 1% return would still equal $1.5 trillion – nearly the value of Canada’s entire economy.)

Space Mining:
Who’s Pursuing All This Untold Wealth?

At least two independent groups that include former NASA officials and leading scientists have plans to tap these thousands of big rocks orbiting in our solar system.

And that’s not all. Obama wants an unmanned mission called OSIRIS-Rex to launch in 2016 and land on an asteroid. OSIRIS would return with resource samples by 2023.

NASA isn’t just along for the ride. It is casting a wide net in the search for valuable space rocks. The agency has asked amateur stargazers to help find even more near-earth asteroids that show great promise.

So the question isn’t if we are going to mine asteroids but when.

And I think investors should keep an eye on Planetary Resources.

Asteroid Mining: 
A New Paradigm for Resource Discovery

This new startup is on a “mission” to mine asteroids.

The firm has a solid plan. It will begin by making and selling very low-cost robotic spacecraft for survey missions. The team expects to have a demo craft in orbit around Earth within two years.

Next comes the key early part of any good mine – prospecting, the phase in which you find the most valuable spots to drill. That will take between five to 10 years.

Finally, Planetary Resources will develop the most efficient capabilities to deliver these resources – everything from water to platinum – directly to both space-based and Earth-bound customers.

For cutting-edge tech, there’s another big payoff – rare earths. These are the unique elements needed for such products as smart phones and iPads. China controls 97% of the rare earths on Earth. But they don’t control outer space…

Not only does Planetary Resources have tons of money behind it; it also benefits from a team of top-tier leaders focused on success.

This is a group of billionaires who know firsthand how much focus and energy it takes to succeed.

Planetary Resources boasts a cast of big-name backers with a track record for creating wealth – and not just the standard scientists, astronauts, and entrepreneurs you might expect. I’m talking about true visionaries, like:

• Peter Diamandis, who serves as co-chairman for the firm. He also runs the foundation that was responsible for the Ansari X-Prize, a $10 million award for commercial space flight that led to $100 million in high-tech investments;
• Larry Page and Eric Schmidt, two senior execs from Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG);
• Charles Simonyi, formerly of Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT). He has already made two trips to space and funded other related ventures;
• Ross Perot, Jr., son of the high-tech leader who ran for president;
• John S. Lewis, author of “Mining the Sky: Untold Riches from the Asteroids, Comets, and Planets.” In this 1997 book, Lewis argues that natural resources and energy are abundant in the solar system and could support a vast civilization many times larger than ours (1016 people).
• And even film director James Cameron.

Make no mistake about it: These guys are in it for the long haul.

“We’re not expecting this company to be an overnight financial home run,” Eric Anderson, the company’s co-founder and co-chairman, told Reuters last month. “This is going to take time.”

Like I said, the U.S. remains committed to space flights. This time, however, it’s even better – we don’t need to depend so much on NASA and federal funding. Because private enterprise has every incentive to make asteroid mining a success.

And that means it’s just a matter of time before tech investors find ways to profit from the New Space Race. Stay tuned.

Michael A. Robinson

Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in Era For Radical Change

From the Archives…

Why China’s New Consumer Economy Won’t Give You the Trade of the Decade
2012-05-04 – Kris Sayce

Why China Could Be The Next Destination For the Financial Crisis
2012-05-03 – Merryn Somerset Webb

How Did We Get It So Wrong on Australian Housing?
2012-05-02 – Kris Sayce

This Indicator Shows the Copper Price Could Be Set to Soar
2012-05-01 – Dr. Alex Cowie

How Gold Nanoparticles Will Create A New Kind of Gold Rush
2012-04-30 – Michael Robinson

Asteroid Mining in Space: An Abundant Future Awaits

GBPUSD breaks above the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a cycle bottom is being formed on 4-hour chart. Further rise is still possible later today, and the target would be at 1.6230 area. However, the rise is likely correction of the downtrend from 1.6301, another fall is still possible and next target would be at 1.6000 area. Key resistance is at 1.6301, only break above this level could trigger another rise towards 1.6500.

Daily Forex Forecast

Source: ForexYard

Today’s data releases from the UK and the US may help higher yielding assets receive a bid following yesterday’s coordinated central bank move and a reduced Chinese reserve requirement.

This morning we’ll get UK manufacturing PMI which is forecasted to fall to 47.1 from 47.4. Sterling has been bid the past 3-days versus the USD and the GBP/USD may find initial resistance at yesterday’s high of 1.5780, followed by the November 18th high of 1.5890. Support comes in at the November low of 1.5420.

Building on yesterday’s positive ADP jobs report and pending home sales the strong US economic data looks to continue into today and tomorrow. ISM manufacturing PMI will likely show the momentum from Q3 is carrying over in to Q4 which could translate into stronger GDP and finally put to bed the idea of a double dip US recession. Stronger data will likely keep the USD on its back foot and the USD/JPY could test yesterday’s low of 77.30 with scope for the November 18th low of 76.55.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Month end fixing may end up being USD positive as banks’ funding costs for USDs continue to rise. Trading in Asia was off to a rocky start with the Heng Seng down 1.80%. The economic calendar is crowded today but investors will continue to focus on the meeting of European finance ministers.

Bank funding costs are rising as lenders scramble to secure USD funding. Today’s end of month trading may increase demand for USDs, especially in Japan.

The meeting of European finance ministers continues into its second day and an article in The Telegraph highlights comments by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble saying European finance ministers have not agreed on the terms of the EFSF.

This afternoon in the North American session we will have the ADP jobs report and US pending home sales, along with Canadian GDP data.

The USD could continue to firm in light of a failure of the European finance ministers to come away with concrete steps to shore up Europe’s finances. The EUR/USD has support at the October low of 1.3145. A break here and the pair could move to 1.0350, the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the June 2010 to May 2011 bullish trend. Resistance is found at yesterday’s high of 1.3440 and the November 18th high of 1.3610. The CAD/USD found support at 1.2060 and could now test the weekly high of 1.0520.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

The Swedish krona continues to weaken as the USD/SEK breaks higher above its 2-year downtrend.

Barring any surprises today the USD/SEK looks poised to close on a weekly basis above the downward sloping trend line from February 2009. The pair will encounter initial resistance at the September high of 6.9915, followed by the November 2010 high of 7.0700. A break here will open the door to the 2010 August and June highs of 7.5100 and 8.1350. The broken trend line may prove to be supportive at 6.6860 followed by the October low of 6.3075.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Today’s economic calendar will be highlighted by the release of the FOMC meeting minutes which are likely to show the Fed stands ready to act should inflation expectations continue to decline.

Investors remain firmly focused on events in Europe though the release of the meeting minutes from the past FOMC meeting could draw some attention from the markets. The Fed will likely address the improved US economic data but also keep the door open to additional monetary policy easing should the Fed see the need. With the doves firmly in control of the Fed and stagnant US unemployment, we continue to expect the Fed to initiate QE3.

The USD continues to move higher this morning versus the majors with the lone exception being the EUR/USD which has support at the base of the recent consolidation at 1.3430 and resistance at the October 18th high of 1.3555. Cable is trading near yesterday’s low of 1.5610 and a break here could open the door to the September low of 1.5325.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Article by Investment U

You should be able to do better than the Philippines ETF (NYSE: EPHE) if you can pick the companies growing revenue and profits the fastest.

Last week, a crack reporter for a leading investment newspaper asked me the following question:

“What’s the economic significance/implication of a country having a young population?”

I had to think quite a bit before responding. You often read about the connection between demography and investing. Gurus like Harry Dent focus almost exclusively on demographic trends to make their market calls.

In brief, here’s my take on how a youthful population can affect the potential for economic growth of a country. More importantly for investors, what companies will likely prosper with this demographic wind at their back?

• Younger people are just at the beginning of their consumer and investor life cycle – great fuel for upward growth of consumer spending in many areas over a long period of time.

• A younger population means lower healthcare and other government retirement benefits – greatly relieving pressure on national budgets.

• Younger people get married and have kids – this means a population growth spurt – a key part of the formula for economic growth and a sign of confidence in the future.

But I caution that having a youthful population is far from an automatic success formula. A country needs to have basic institutions in place, such as rule of law and an independent judiciary, good primary education and an open market economy.

Need proof? Many of the poorest countries in the world have a young population, but are mired in war, political instability and corruption. Mali, for example, has 47% of its population under the age of 14.

Growing Faster

It’s interesting though to see that younger countries do seem to be growing faster. I don’t want to bury you in numbers, but let me give you some data points.

While America has 20% of its population under the age of 14, the Philippines tops the list at 34.6%. For Peru, it’s 28.5%, Columbia 26.7%, India 27.3%, Mexico 28.2% and Vietnam 25.2%. For China, it’s a surprising low of 17.6%, and Russia comes in at only 15.2%.

On the other side of the equation, the percentage of citizens over the age of 65 is highest in Japan at 22.9%, while it’s 13% in America, 6.6% in Mexico, 6% in Indonesia, 5.5% in Vietnam and only 4.3% in the Philippines.

The Philippines looks like a clear winner on both ends of the age game.

But the critical question for investors is to think through what areas will benefit most from these demographic trends. A growing population and families at the beginning of their consumer life cycle means higher demand for things like food, drugs, consumer banking services like mortgages, cellphones, oil and energy, waste management, autos and motorcycles, construction and housing.

The Republic of the Philippines

As an example, let’s take a look at the winner of the demographic derby, the Republic of the Philippines. For some time, the Philippines, a country of 100 million, has been a bit of a laggard in Asia, though lately its prospects are brightening. The country is now a net creditor and its budget deficit has dropped to 2% of its GDP. Infrastructure is improving and the political situation seems to stabilizing, and the Philippines’ banking system is the healthiest in Southeast Asia.

All this good news has sparked Manila’s stock market. It was the world’s seventh-best performer in 2011 and, so far in 2012, the Philippines ETF (NYSE: EPHE) is up 25.9%.

You should be able to do better than this basket of stocks if you can pick the companies growing revenue and profits the fastest. Some may think that stock picking is an afterthought after identifying a promising trend or market, but it’s by far the most important decision.

For the Philippines, here’s the challenge: there’s only one Philippine stock trading on the NYSE – Philippine Long Distance (NYSE: PHI). And while it offers a nice dividend, the stock seems rather expensive to me and growth is slowing.

There are also 12 “pink-sheet blue-chip” Philippine stocks that trade over the counter, but the liquidity for them is very poor.

If you have a brokerage account that allows you to invest in the Philippine market though, here are a few companies I like in particular:

• San Miguel Corp, which is not only the dominant (founded in 1890) brewer in the Philippines and many parts of Asia, but is active in food, beverages, power, mining and banking. Drinking beer (before graduating to fine wine or a martini) seems a perfect fit with youthful population.

• Another good match is SM Investments Corp. Founded in 1960, the company is at the sweet spot of shopping mall development, retail, financial services, real estate development and tourism, hotels and conventions businesses in the Philippines. During the first quarter, revenue was up 16% and net income up 13% year over year. SM Investments is the top holding (8.2%) of EPHE.

For many of you, EPHE is the best fit, but don’t forget your trailing sell stop since there can always be some profit-taking from time to time.

Good Investing,

Carl Delfeld

Article by Investment U