Aussie and Kiwi Tumble as Stocks Fall

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell from their two-month high registered yesterday as stocks in the world market fell. The demand for riskier assets reduced as investors await the ECB and BOE rate decisions scheduled to be announced later today. The kiwi reversed it two-day advance against the yen before reports that may indicate a drop in the German Factory orders. Further, the south pacific currencies dropped as economists predict the least advance in US payrolls in more than two years. However, investors will also be waiting to hear what Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan has to say about trading the Chinese currency and the Aussie next week.

Explaining the decline, Robert Rennie, the Chief Currency Strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp said that the issues affecting global economy will keep the Australian dollar on the low for the short term. In addition, the kiwi and Aussie fell as MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell by 0.2 percent after gaining for the last six days. Speculation that factory orders in Germany may have declined by 6 percent and the fears that US employers added only 90,000 employees last month have contributed to the fall of the two south pacific dollars.

The Australian dollar fell by 0.1 percent against the US dollar to trade at $1.0264 at the close of trading in Sydney after it had touched its highest since May 3 yesterday of $1.0320. The Aussie dropped by 0.3 percent against the yen to trade at 81.87 yen. Likewise, the New Zealand dollar dropped by 0.1 percent against the US dollar to trade at 80.30 US cents and declined by 0.2 percent against the yen to exchange at 64.06 yen.

Australian treasurer Wayne Swan said that the government is taking measures to enhance yuan-Aussie trade as China is the country’s larger trading partner.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
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News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
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Bank of England keeps rate steady, boosts bond buying

By Central Bank News
    The Bank of England maintained its official bank rate at 0.5 percent but boosted the size of its bond purchase program by 50 billion pounds to 375 billion, as widely expected.
    The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee said the combination of its recent, and prospective, expansion of lending schemes to ease tight liquidity in the banking system and continued stimulus from past policy measures should help the economy gradually strengthen.
    “But against the background of continuing tight credit conditions and fiscal consolidation, the increased drag from the heightened tensions within the euro area meant that, without additional monetary stimulus, it was more likely than not that inflation would undershoot the target in the medium term,” the bank said in a statement.

    The UK economy has barely expanded for the last 1-1/2 years and is estimated to have contracted in the last six months. Indicators point to continued UK and foreign weakness and despite recent progress by European politicians in addressing structural problems, confidence remains weak.
      “The correspondingly weaker outlook for UK output growth means that the margin of economic slack is likely to be greater and more persistent,” the bank said, noting the recent decline in inflation to an annual rate of 2.8 percent in May and declining commodity prices.
    “Given the continuing drag from economic slack, that should ensure inflation continues to ease into the medium term,” the bank said. The BoE targets inflation of 2.0 percent and inflation has been above that target since December 2009.
    The BoE last cut its rate to the current 0.5 percent by 50 basis points in March 2009, when it also began purchasing bonds to keep interest rates low and add funds to the UK economy. In February the size of the asset purchase program was raised by 50 billion pounds to 325 billion.
    www.CentralBankNews.info





Malaysia keeps interest rate steady at 3.0%

By Central Bank News

    Malaysia’s central bank kept its benchmark Overnigh Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.0 percent, as widely expected, noting the uncertain global economic and financial environment.
    Bank Negara Malaysia said after a meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee that pressures in international financial markets had receded following the recent policy decisions in the euro area, but a number of important issues remain unresolved and continue to unsettle markets.
    “The MPC will continue to carefully assess these evolving conditions and their implications on the overall outlook for inflation and growth of the Malaysian economy,” the bank said in a statement.

    Consumption and investment in Malaysia remains resilient and domestic demand will be an anchor of growth while inflation is expected to remain moderate for the rest of this year due to excess capacity in the economy.
    “Global energy and commodity prices are likely to be contained given the weak global conditions.  However, upside risks to inflation could emerge should disruptions to global supply result in higher global prices for these commodities,” the bank said.
    www.CentralBankNews.info

ECB and BOE Moves May Signal the Start of a Zero-rate Era

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are set to signal the start of a zero-rate era, as they move to shove their respective economies to growth. The market has seen an increased number of central banks around the world cutting interest rates as the global economy continues to worsen. The BOE and ECB officials will be making their rate decisions later today where major changes are expected.

The ECB is expected to push its interest rate further down by 0.25 percent to register a new low record since the currency was started. The central bank is also expected to drop its deposit rate to zero as it seeks ways to prevent further economic deterioration in the region. In UK, Mervyn King is expected to push for an expansion of the BOE’s bond purchases target by 50 billion pounds as efforts to prevent further deterioration in the country’s economy.

JPMorgan Chase & Co which has announced a decreased interest rate of about 0.5 has indicated that major central banks have resulted into frantic measure to prevent possible crisis. According to Joseph Lupton of JPMorgan in New York a large part of the world’s economy have stagnated forcing central banks to engage easing measures. Central banks in US, China and Australia which acted last month and they are set to be joined by the ECB and BOE as the former is predicted to lower interest rates at 1:45 PM today; BOE will announce its monetary policy at noon in London today.

According to Joseph Lupton, the debt crisis in Europe is the major reason most of these banks are making these adjustments. He also added that most of the central banks in the developed countries will miss their inflation targets by the end of the year.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Did the European Summit Change the Market Trend?

By MoneyMorning.com.au

I don’t often get to write to you about my market views, so I thought I’d quickly point out that I think this market rally will soon meet some pretty stiff resistance. In fact, I am getting pretty excited by the fact that the European summit managed to create a big short covering rally which has taken equities right back up into the sell zone.

The S+P 500 is of particular interest to me at the moment.

Emini S+P 500 Futures Daily Chart

Emini S+P 500 Futures Daily Chart
Click here to enlarge

Source: Slipstream Trader

If you have a look at the above chart (the best idea is to open it in the browser and refer to it in full size), you can see that the current price action is almost a mirror image of what we saw last year.

In 2011 the initial sell-off from ‘X’ went to retest the 200 day moving average where support was found. The market then turned and rallied from ‘A’ to ‘B’ which was the 73.4% retracement of the whole sell-off from ‘X’.

This market rally was a short squeeze that would have taken many ‘short’ traders out of their positions. Stiff resistance was met at ‘B’ and the market turned and began its plunge. It snapped under the 200 day moving average and fell 20% in two weeks.

The current market rally is now heading towards the 73.4% retracement level at 1380 in the futures. 1373 is also the high made last year in early May 2011.

If you look at the indicator at the bottom of the chart, which is the percentage that the price is above and below the 35 day moving average, you can see that the market is entering the risky 3-5% above the 35 day moving average band (the solid blue lines) where it will often find stiff resistance in a downtrend as it did last year (I have circled the areas to look at in the indicator).

On Friday we have the release of US employment numbers. Expectations are for a fairly weak 90,000 additions. Perhaps that release will be the catalyst for this market rally to meet its use-by date, right in the major sell zone that I have been discussing.

If so it will be the best risk/reward opportunity of the year. With a potential 20% downside to come, there is the chance to make a lot of bickies if you can get onto it. Easier said than done, but it is certainly worth having a go.

Murray Dawes
Editor, Slipstream Trader

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Did the European Summit Change the Market Trend?

LIBOR: When Bankers Try to Shift the Blame

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Stop press! Bankers found to be liars! Shock, horror. What is the world coming to?

The growing news story in relation to the collusion by bankers to fix the LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) is one well worth keeping an eye on. As the rats jump from the ship they are sure to bring others down with them. We may finally get a peek inside the inner workings of the financial system.

Perhaps the general public will finally realise what a hoax it really is. Anyone who works in the markets should not be too surprised to hear that Barclays et al. have been lying about the rates that they can borrow at.

Continue reading “LIBOR: When Bankers Try to Shift the Blame”

How Progress Came From the Free Market

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Yesterday we included a quote from Paul Howes, complimenting the South Korean government on their foresight on throwing billions into developing the brand ‘Samsung’.

But Howes, like many statists and central planners have made a common mistake. They wrongly credit economic and human progress with the increased role of government during the past 200 years.

In reality, they’ve put the cart before the horse. It’s not the gradual increases in government intervention that spurred progress. What spurred progress was the end of Europe’s feudal system of government, and the discovery of the New World and free markets.

18th century French writer Voltaire wrote of the feudal state that it was ‘a device for taking money out of one set of pockets and putting it into another.’

Sound familiar?

So it’s no coincidence that, as feudalism ended and individuals gained more freedom, human progress finally took off. It was like a coiled spring waiting to be sprung…a jack-in-the-box with the lid forced shut, until suddenly the promise of freedom and opportunity beckoned.

But for centuries there was no freedom or social mobility.

Kings ruled their kingdom, and occasionally kings fought with other kings, or fought with princes who grew impatient of waiting to become kings.

Lords of the manor ruled their vast landed estates… land assigned to them by the king or wrestled from other Lords or handed down through generations. For centuries the land was unimproved and unexploited – no factories, no productive labour force…just gardens, lakes and follies.

Beneath them were the merchants and tradesmen. The buyers and sellers of goods and the makers of goods. The men who passed on both name and occupation to their children: Carpenter, Cooper, Baker, Smith, Butcher and many others.

At the bottom came those who were little more than slaves…the serfs. They grew crops for the Lords and were allowed to keep enough food for subsistence living.

Everyone knew their place. There was no social mobility. Serfs didn’t become merchants or tradesmen. Merchants or tradesmen didn’t become Lords. Lords didn’t become kings.

There was no progress or improvement in the standard of living because no-one knew the concept of wanting to do better for themselves.

Bottom line: There was no incentive for anyone to do more than was necessary to maintain their current standard of living.

The Rise of the Entrepreneur

Yet gradually, human spirit prevailed. As the saying goes, ‘You can’t keep a good man down.’

But by the 17th and early 18th centuries, people that we would today call the middle class began to think there was more to life than knowing their place.

The spring had sprung, and there was no going back.

Now, we’re certainly not saying that these ‘middle classes’ were freedom fighters. They didn’t fight against the established systems in order to achieve universal suffrage.

And remember, revolutions are rarely begun by the working class or poor. They mostly begin when those who seek more power, or grow tired of not having it.

So, they fought out of self-interest. But it also drew in those who saw the opportunity to perhaps do something no-one else had ever done – the opportunity to rise above their station.

Within a generation plain old ‘middle class’ merchants and tradesmen became entrepreneurs.

Perhaps the first modern entrepreneurs. They saw the opportunities that economic freedom (or at least relatively more freedom) could offer and they took advantage of it.

And the effect didn’t take long. Progress began to march further ahead as the Industrial Revolution took hold in England and then throughout Europe.

The steam engine…the spinning jenny…iron foundries…manufacturing…machine tools… chemical discoveries…gas, glass, and agriculture machinery.

The list goes on.

None of it, not one jot of these innovations, inventions and improvements was created by an act of parliament or ministerial decree.

They were created by entrepreneurs, through trial and error. Those who trialled and got it right are remembered centuries later: Michael Faraday, James Watt and George Stephenson.

Those who trialled and failed have been forgotten. And yet their presence and efforts are just as important, because without failure there isn’t success and there isn’t progress.

The Industrial Revolution was a creation of human activity and ingenuity. It certainly wasn’t about governments picking winners.

In fact, when the bureaucrats do try to create innovations by legislation, it’s usually a disaster.

For instance, take the Longitude Act of 1714.

It was passed by the U.K. parliament in that year. The aim was to solve the problem of calculating longitude while at sea. The difficulty of making this calculation is seen in a letter from Amerigo Vespucci, a 15th century explorer

‘As to longitude, I declare that I found so much difficulty in determining it that I was put to great pains to ascertain the east-west distance I had covered. The final result of my labours was that I found nothing better to do than to watch for and take observations at night of the conjunction of one planet with another, and especially of the conjunction of the moon with the other planets, because the moon is swifter in her course than any other planet. I compared my observations with an almanac.

After I had made experiments many nights, one night, the twenty-third of August 1499, there was a conjunction of the moon with Mars, which according to the almanac was to occur at midnight or a half hour before. I found that…at midnight Mars’s position was three and a half degrees to the east.’

That’s a lot of effort.

Eventually, the U.K. created the Board of Longitude to solve the problem. It was created in 1714 by an Act of Parliament. But it wasn’t until 1773 that the Board finally recognized the work of John Harrison and his marine chronometer…14 years after Harrison had proved that his design worked.

Yet still, when anything goes wrong in an economy, the people and the press turn to the State for help.

Investing in a Free Market

But it’s not the slow creep of increased government powers that created so much wealth and progress from the 18th century onwards. Instead it was the end of centuries of human oppression and the reduction in government involvement.

That’s the story of progress and success. Not dim-witted bureaucrats, unionists and politicians trying to pick winners.

But ultimately, although it may not always seem like it, we’re positive about the future. This is simply because we believe that, in the end, human spirit and the urge to be free will always overcome oppression and control by the State.

That’s a world we want to live in, and it’s also a world we want to invest in. We hope you do too.

In this coming issue of Australian Small-Cap Investigator, we’re researching the stocks that we believe have the most to gain from a shift away from central planning and back towards more open and free markets.

Kris Sayce
Editor, Money Morning

From the Archives…

The Hard Lesson of a Stock Trader: No Pain, No Gain
2012-06-29 – Kris Sayce

How Gold Prices Look Set to Climb As Banks Crumble
2012-06-28 – Peter Krauth

‘Big Wednesday’ For the Aussie Dollar
2012-06-27 – Dr. Alex Cowie

Three Reasons Why Silver Could Take Off in 2012
2012-06-26 – Dr. Alex Cowie

Who is Winning the Battle Between the Bulls and Bears?
2012-06-25 – Kris Sayce


How Progress Came From the Free Market

Central Bank News Link List – July 5, 2012

By Central Bank News

    Here’s today’s Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list is updated during the day with the latest news about central banks so readers don’t miss any important developments.

How to Become Financially Independent

Article by Investment U

How to Become Financially Independent

Following the "right predictions" is not a winning investment strategy. Successful investors become financially independent by following the right principles.

When I speak at financial seminars and conferences around the country, I feel a tension – a palpable fear – that didn’t exist in the past.

Investors aren’t just nervous or uncertain. They’re scared. And who can blame them?

The economy is sputtering. The Eurozone threatens to come apart at the seams. And the stock market is gyrating wildly.

In response to all this, some stock market pundits are pounding the table, insisting that this is an historic buying opportunity. Others, however, are infected with anxiety themselves. And a few are actively fear mongering.

Who should you believe, the raging bulls or the rampaging bears?

CNBC won’t make you financially independent.

The answer is neither.

As historian David McCullough often reminds his audiences, there’s no such thing as the foreseeable future. None of these gurus has a crystal ball.

And that’s okay. Because financial independence is not about following the right predictions.

It’s about following the right principles.

Fortunately, the principles of successful investing are well understood.

Why don’t most people follow them? One reason is ignorance. There’s no shame in this. It’s a big, complicated world out there and we’re all ignorant of different things.

However, it’s unfortunate that most kids graduate from high school without a modicum of financial literacy. It’s tough to get a quick start in this world if you don’t understand compound interest, 401(k)s, adjustable-rate mortgages, or why we have a stock market.

Great principles will make you financially independent.

So what are the great principles of investing?

It’s tough to cover them all in a short column like this. (Although I cover the bases in my first book, The Gone Fishin’ Portfolio.)

But here are the nuts and bolts everyone should know:

For starters, few people get rich by founding a computer company in their garage, recording a platinum record, or playing third base for the Yankees. Most people with a net worth of a million dollars or more became financially independent the old fashioned way. They maximize their income, minimize their outgo, and religiously save and invest the difference.

As my friend Rick Rule likes to say, when your outgo exceeds your income, your upkeep becomes your downfall.

Six ways to make your money work for you…

Ok, let’s assume you’ve done what many people are either unable or too undisciplined to do: You’ve saved some money. Now what?

The next step is to understand that there are six factors that will determine what your investment portfolio is worth in the future:

  1. The amount of money you save.
  2. The length of time you let it compound. (Hands off.)
  3. Your asset allocation. (This refers to how you diversify your portfolio among uncorrelated investments like stocks, bonds, cash and precious metals.)
  4. Your security selection. (i.e. the individual investments you own.)
  5. The amount you pay in commissions, fees and other expenses.
  6. And the amount you fork over in taxes.

Note that there’s nothing here about forecasting the economy, timing the stock market, or figuring out how the European debt crisis will end. You cannot know the answer to those questions.

And that’s okay, too, because they will have little bearing on what your investment portfolio is worth five, 10, or 15 years from now.

If you’re investing to become financially independent, think long-term and forget about the day-to-day trivia that dominates the headlines and pays the salaries of so-called experts.

Focus instead on following proven investment principles. In other words:

  • Save as much as you can.
  • Start as soon as you can.
  • Leave it alone as long as you can.
  • Follow a sensible asset allocation.
  • Diversify among high-quality securities.
  • Minimize your investment costs.
  • And tax-manage your portfolio.

The principles are not complicated. Spend less money than you earn. Save.

Put your savings into a diverse portfolio of uncorrelated assets. Diversify to prevent big losses. Live below your means, and let compound interest do the heavy lifting.

Want to learn more about becoming financially independent?

Our free white paper, How to Build Wealth, covers asset allocation, position sizing, tax management, and other sound investment principles in detail.

Did I mention that it’s free?

Until next time, heed the advice of Thomas Jefferson:

“In matters of style, swim with current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.”

Good Investing,

Alexander Green

Article by Investment U

The Moody’s Downgrade: Hurts Some Banks, but Helps Others

Article by Investment U

What’s the premise behind this whole downgrading business?

“Hindsight is 20/20.”

“Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”

We’ve all heard these adages before – and so has Moody’s. Let’s go back to the mid-2000s…

There were a number of banks out there investing in a lot of things that rating agencies couldn’t comprehend. Since there was an inability to assess risk, agencies such as Moody’s gave AAA ratings to banks like coaches giving out trophies at a YMCA youth sports tournament –everybody was a winner.

We know the results of that process. Banks took on a lot of risk and didn’t have the capital requirements to back it all up. It all hit the fan four years ago and rating agencies lost massive credibility.

Last week, Moody’s made the attempt to regain some of that lost prestige. But the markets basically told them, “We already knew this.” Markets took little notice after Moody’s downgraded the ratings of 15 of the world’s largest banks. We all knew it was coming.

So, was there anything new we learned from the latest downgrades?

Dividing Banks into Three Tiers

One of the biggest problems that wasn’t addressed four years ago was how banks would deal with certain financial crises. Remember that the Federal Reserve did stress testing with some of the bigger banks a few months back to see how they would do against a European banking collapse and other economic fiascos. Well, Moody’s looked at the same thing when it downgraded banks.

With their ratings downgrades, Moody’s Investors Service further divided some of the world’s biggest banks. The divisions are based on each bank’s strength and if it can weather storms with access to cheap customer deposits. And this makes sense.

“Safe haven” banks are those institutions that fund themselves with steady retail deposits rather than the climate in capital markets. Moody’s designated its highest ratings to three safe havens – HSBC (NYSE: HBC), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY) and JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) – because it argued that these three are protected by their deposits and thus have an edge to absorb hits better than their peers.

A new trend that evolved after the banking crisis is weaker banks with less “shock absorbers” getting hammered for taking risk. Meanwhile, stronger banks are rewarded for being more conservative, guaranteeing lower costs and greater margins.

Those banks with lower ratings will not only see their cost of business increasing (i.e. through reduced access to funds or by paying more for funding), but could see trading partners ask for more collateral. Most likely, you’ll see a lot of business guided to banks that the market perceives as stronger. If you’re a bank that’s severely dependent upon markets for funding, the lower your rating, the harder it is to get that funding because of the debt crisis in Europe and the worldwide economic slowdown.

Just in case you’re curious, there were three tiers of strength. I’ve talked about some the strongest, but there’s the middle tier. Moody’s said these banks depend on unreliable capital market revenues to make shareowners happy. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) fell into this group.

The last group is those that had been roughed up by their risk management and/or have “shock absorbers” not up to par with their banking peers. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) were all placed here.

Downgrades May Be An Opportunity for Regional Banks

People yelled that these banks were too big to fail. But what about all the other banks? How are they affected by Moody’s rate cuts?

That’s a good question, because there should be an opportunity here. Enter the big regional banks such as:

  • U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB)
  • PNC Financial Services (NYSE: PNC)
  • BB&T (NYSE: BBT)

Don’t get me wrong, they take hits like the big boys do. They move in step with the economy and fall prey to the same information and economic influences. However, the big regional banks don’t possess all the complicated trading practices or the derivative operations that are still so secretive. These are some of the reasons for the downgrading of the global banks. They also started to and are expected to take more market share in areas like commercial lending from bigger banks.

Also keep in mind that the banking sector has been undervalued for a while. David Sterman for Financial Adviser reported at the beginning of the year that analysts were stating that bank stocks were cheap and that the financial services sector was bound for a rally. For instance, The Oxford Club’s Trading Portfolio is even sitting on a 58% gain with its position in BB&T – since Alexander Green recommended it in August of 2011. And remember, Warren Buffett’s bets in Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and Bank of America last year are starting to pay off.

Points Worth Noting…

  • I think that investors have seen the appeal of value in banks and the financial sector. The investment is worth the money according to the fundamentals. Look for movement into the sector by means of the larger regional banks – such as the ones mentioned above.
  • Regional banks also look to be a bargain on terms of trailing profits and/or book value.
  • For some safety in diversification, investors could look at some ETFs to possibly alleviate some of the risk in individual bank stocks. One of the more affordable ones is the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE: KRE). While it has an expense ratio of .35%, it’s a lot cheaper than its peers and it has exposure to a bigger spectrum of regional banks.

Good Investing,

Jason Jenkins

Article by Investment U