InvestMacro Forex News

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The 17-nation currency weakened against all of its major trading peers today as speculation of a decline in German industrial production grew prior to the release of the report today. German data is construed to give a clear picture of the situation in Europe, and declining industrial production is an indication of slowing growth in the region. The shared currency dropped against the yen for the first time in 7 days as technical indicators showed that the euro advance was too fast. The decline also came as European Finance Ministers prepare to meet today and Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, visits Greece tomorrow for the first time since the debt crisis erupted.

According to Thomas Averill, a Sydney-based Managing Director at Rochford Capital, there is a high probability that the next three to four months will produce bad news from Europe since economic fundamentals are lackluster. He predicted that the euro may drop to $1.20 by the end of the year. The 14-day relative strength index for the euro rose to 68 by the end of last week, nearing the 70 level which indicates the currency is overrated. A German industrial production report expected to be released today is projected to show a decline of 0.6 percent in August.

The euro-zone finance ministers are meeting today where they are projected to discuss situation in Greece as it seeks to authorize the next bailout payment for the country. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to show strong support for Greece’s participation in the monetary union. Ray Atrill, a Foreign Exchange Strategist in Sydney at National Australia Bank Ltd., said that Merkel’s support for Greece will be seen as positive for the euro and may push the euro higher against some major peers.

The euro has dropped by 0.5 percent against the dollar to trade at $1.2977 today in London. The currency dropped by 0.6 percent against the yen to trade at 101.96 yen from the 102.80 yen it traded at the close of the week last week. The dollar has weakened by 0.1 percent against the yen to trade at 78.56 yen.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Mon 8 Oct, 07:20 EST

WHOLESALE-MARKET prices to buy gold fell 0.5% to $1770 per ounce in Asian and London trade Monday, holding more than $25 below Friday’s new 11-month high as world stock markets also fell together with commodity prices.

Chinese traders wanting to buy gold saw the price fall sharply as the Shanghai futures market re-opened after the long Golden Week holidays.

Silver prices fell nearly 5% from last week’s new 7-month high against the US Dollar, hitting the lowest level in nearly two weeks.

“We are somewhat cautious on gold here,” says a note from commodity brokerage Intl FC Stone.  “It has had a very good run higher over the past several weeks, while chart-wise, it looks like it could back away further from stiff resistance between $1790-1800.

“However, we still would look to buy gold on any substantial pullback, as it will likely be one of the prime beneficiaries of the massive easing policies we are seeing put through practically the world over.”

Monday saw both the Japanese and US financial markets closed for national holidays.

Last week saw a new record in the size of gold ETFs, with the volume of bullion held to back these stockmarket-traded trust funds swelling to nearly 2,570 tonnes according to Bloomberg data.

Speculators in the US gold futures and options market also raised their betting, taking their net long position (of bullish minus bearish positions) to its highest level since August 2011 at the equivalent of 941 tonnes.

So-called “small speculators” led the charge, raising their net long position as a group for the 7th week running to equal 195 tonnes – a series record according to official data from the CFTC regulator.

“The weekly uptrend remains in place” in Dollar gold prices, says the latest technical analysis from bullion market-maker Scotia Mocatta, “with support at $1613 and resistance at the all-time high of $1921.”

“Momentum was slower” last week in the growing gold futures’ position however, notes Standard Bank’s commodity team here in London.

“That indicates market participants are increasingly wary of adding length in this post-QE3 environment.”

Over in the commodity market Monday morning, crude oil lost more than 1% and base metals also fell hard after the International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for the East Asian economies.

Now predicting 7.7% growth for 2012 – down from May’s forecast of 8.2% – the IMF says next year will see growth of 8.1% rather than the previous prediction of 8.6%.

ANZ Bank meantime warns that slowing demand from China could see 1-in-3 of the 900-odd mineral projects now being planned in Australia put on hold.

Advertisements for new jobs in Australia have been declining for 6 months, ANZ research adds elsewhere, taking the total of vacant positions down 11% from a year ago.

“The big bogeyman in the closet is China and everyone is trying to guesstimate if it’s going to have a hard landing or a soft landing,” says Philippe Gijsels at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets in Brussels, speaking to Reuters.

China’s demand to buy gold is now the world’s second-heaviest after India. Together those two countries account for over 50% of annual consumption worldwide.

HSBC analysts today said China’s services sector grew sharply in September, rebounding from a 1-year low on the bank’s Purchasing Managers’ Index.

Those data are at odds however with Beijing’s official non-manufacturing PMI released last week, which showed the services sector of the world’s second-largest economy slowing to its weakest level in two years.

Meantime in Europe, finance ministers from the Eurozone states today gathered in Luxembourg for the first board meeting of the new €500 billion Stabilization Mechanism fund.

Spanish bond prices rose with German, French and Dutch government debt – nudging their interest rates lower. Italian bond prices slipped, raising Rome’s borrowing costs.

The Euro edged back beneath $1.30 as the US Dollar rose against all currencies bar the Japanese Yen.

Eurozone investors wanting to buy gold saw the price hold steady at €1367 per ounce, a level first touched in September 2011 that’s now 1.4% below last week’s new all-time record.

Adrian Ash
BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2012

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Article by AlgosysFx Forex Trading Solutions

With the September Non-Farm Payrolls report providing the markets optimism that the US economy is on a steady mend, the US dollar is foreseen to outclass the Swiss franc today. Although hiring remained at a rather tepid pace, the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly dropped to a near four-year low during the month, potentially boosting President Barack Obama’s reelection bid.

The US Labor Department reported that the Jobless Rate fell from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent last month, its lowest level since January 2009, even as more Americans joined the hunt for work. Employers added 114,000 positions to their payrolls last month, still a number seen too weak to incite substantial improvement in the labor market. Nonetheless, the Labor Department also said that a combined 86,000 more jobs were created in July and August than previously estimated, indicating that the economy generated 146,000 jobs per month in Q3 compared to the 67,000 average in the second quarter. The gains were led by the health care industry, which added a seven-month high of 44,000 jobs. Transportation and warehousing also showed considerable gains during the month.

Average Hourly Earnings also exceeded forecasts and rose by 0.3 percent in September to record its largest increase since June, suggesting that consumer spending could incline amid improved confidence. Taken together, economists deem that the report suggested a healthier labor market as the employment-to-population ratio increased to its highest level since May 2010. The jobs market has been steadily improving, with jobs having been added for 24 consecutive months. The report could also give Obama a chance to point to an improving economy after stumbling in this week’s debate against Republican adversary Mitt Romney.

Last month, linger poor labor market conditions spurred the Federal Reserve to announce a third round of monetary stimulus which plans to buy $40 Billion worth of mortgage-backed securities each month until it sees a sustained turnaround in employment. Although the September report is unlikely to incite the Fed to back off its stimulus soon, the apparent improvement in the jobs sector is certainly welcome news for the Fed, likely forcing it to reduce the duration of QE3. On optimism for the world’s largest economy, a long position in favor of the Greenback for the USD/CHF is advised today.

For more news, analysis, technical charts and candlestick analysis, visit AlgosysFx

By Central Bank News
    The United States, Russia and Turkey have made significant progress in implementing the Basel 2.5 global banking rules, while Argentina, Indonesia and Mexico still have work to do, according to the latest progress report by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.
    Basel 2.5 was agreed by global banking regulators in July 2009 as the first institutional response to the global financial crises, ahead of the more comprehensive revision of banking rules under Basel III.
    While Basel 2.5, which imposed higher capital charges on banks’ trading activities and specifically on securities composed of bundles of assets, was due to be implemented by the end of 2011, Basel III is first due to be implemented in phases from January 2013.
    The Basel Committee conducts period reviews of the implementation of its standards by national lawmakers and found progress at the end of September compared with its April report.
     “It is clear that not all jurisdictions will be ready in time. Still, we see continuing signs of progress,” said Stefan Ingves, chairman of the Basel Committee and governor of Sweden’s central bank.

    The Basel Committee routinely reviews the national implementation of its rules on three levels:  timely adoption, regulatory consistency and consistency of outcomes.
    Last week it publishes a level 2 assessment report, finding that Japan had fully transposed its rules into national law, while draft regulations by both the U.S. and the European Union had some shortcomings.
    Click to read the: “Progress report on Basel III implementation.” by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision,

    www.CentralBankNews.info 
    

Source: ForexYard

The US dollar took losses against several of its main currency rivals on Friday, following the release of this month’s Non-Farm Payrolls report and unemployment rate. An unexpected drop in the US unemployment rate raised confidence in the American economic recovery, which in turn boosted demand for higher-yielding assets. This week, traders will want to pay attention to several key news events out of the euro-zone and US. A speech from the ECB President on Tuesday, the US trade balance report on Thursday followed by US consumer sentiment data on Friday all have the potential to create market volatility.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Sees Mixed Reaction to Unemployment Figure

An unexpected drop in the US unemployment rate led to risk taking among investors on Friday, which resulted in the safe-haven USD taking losses against its higher-yielding currency rivals. Against the Canadian dollar, the greenback fell close to 75 pips after the news was released, eventually trading as low as 0.9734 before staging an upward correction. The USD/CAD finished the week at 0.9785. The dollar had more look against its safe-haven rival the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY shot up more than 40 pips during mid-day trading, eventually reaching as high as 78.86. The pair closed out the week at 78.65.

This week, several economic indicators out of the US have the potential to create volatility for the dollar. Traders will want to pay attention to Thursday’s trade balance and unemployment claims figures, followed by Friday’s PPI and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. During the first half of the week, euro-zone news, particularly with regards to the debt crisis in Spain, is likely to impact risk sentiment in the marketplace.

EUR – Risk Taking Temporarily Boosts Euro

Positive employment data out of the US led to risk taking among investors on Friday, which resulted in temporary gains for the euro. Against the US dollar, the common-currency shot up more than 70 pips during mid-day trading to hit a two-week high at 1.3070. The euro was not able to maintain its upward momentum, and by the end of the day had given up most of its gains to finish out the week at 1.3031. Against the British pound, the euro had better luck. The EUR/GBP advanced more than 40 pips over the course of the day before closing out the week at 0.8077.

This week, euro traders will want to continue monitoring news out of Spain, particularly with regards to its debt situation and a potential request for a euro-zone bailout. Analysts are warning that until a bailout request is made, the euro could have a hard time maintaining any of its recent gains. Additionally, attention should be given to a speech from ECB President Draghi, scheduled to take place on Tuesday. Any optimism in his speech regarding the euro-zone economic recovery could help the euro.

Gold – US Employment Data Turns Gold Bearish

Gold, which has often been viewed as a safe-haven in times of economic crisis, took fairly significant losses on Friday following the release of better than expected US employment data. The positive US news boosted confidence in the global economic recovery, which turned the precious metal bearish. Gold fell close to $20 an ounce during mid-day trading, eventually reaching as low as $1772.67 before bouncing back to $1780.41 when markets closed for the weekend.

This week, gold traders will want to monitor developments out of the euro-zone, particularly with regards to Spain’s debt crisis. Investors may shift their funds back to the precious metal if they see any signs that the situation in the euro-zone is worsening. Additionally, any worse than expected news out of the US may boost demand for safe-haven assets, which could turn gold bullish.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Falls as Tensions Calm in Middle East

The price of crude oil fell by more than $2 a barrel during the first half of the day on Friday, as the threat of a military conflict over Iran’s nuclear program seems to weakened for the time being, which has led to a drop in supply side fears among investors. After trading as low as $88.96 during the mid-day session, crude was able to stage a slight upward correction before closing out the week at $89.92.

This week, crude traders will want to pay attention to news out of the US, particularly Thursday’s trade balance figure and a consumer sentiment indicator on Friday. Any better than expected news may lead to speculations that demand for oil in the US will go up, which may help the commodity reverse some of Friday’s losses.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The weekly chart’s Slow Stochastic appears close to forming a bearish cross, signaling the possibility of a downward correction in the coming days. In addition, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart has crossed into overbought territory. This may be a good time for traders to open short positions.

GBP/USD

While the Williams Percent Range on the daily chart has dropped into oversold territory, indicating that an upward correction could occur shortly, most other long term technical indicators show this pair range trading. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach for this pair, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

USD/JPY

Most long term technical indicators, including the daily chart’s Relative Strength Index which remains steady at the 60 level, show this pair range trading. With a defined trend difficult to determine at this time, traders may want to take a wait and see approach for this pair.

USD/CHF

The daily chart’s Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold territory, while the same chart’s MACD/OsMA appears close to forming a bullish cross. Traders will want to keep an eye on both of these indicators, as they may point to a possible upward correction in the near future.

The Wild Card

AUD/CHF

A bullish cross on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic points to a possible upward correction in the near future for this pair. Furthermore, the same chart’s Relative Strength Index has crossed into oversold territory. This may be a good time for forex traders to open long positions ahead of possible bullish movement.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By The Sizemore Letter

In recent weeks, I’ve urged readers to maintain positions in some of the potentially most volatile markets in the world, including emerging markets (see “Bullish on India” and “Access to Africa”) and crisis-wracked countries such as Spain (see “ECB Could Trigger Monster Rally in Spanish Stocks”).

My rationale was simple enough.  In a market being goosed by the largest coordinated central bank easing in history, it makes sense to err on the side of bullishness.  Unless you see strong evidence of a market breakdown, you want to be invested, and preferably in the most speculative sectors .  This is not a trend you want to fight.

Yes, the global economy is slowing, the United States faces a fiscal cliff, and the dithering of European politicians over the past two years has done damage to investor confidence that will likely take years to fix (if fixing it is even a possibility at this point).  All of these are major headwinds to a sustained bull market, and there will eventually be hell to pay.  But that day is not today.

Today, I recommend that investors snap up shares of the EGShares Beyond BRICs ETF ($BBRC).

This new ETF by EG Shares invests in promising emerging markets excluding the BRIC countries of India—which I recommended separately—and Brazil, China, and Russia, which have all lagged this year. Instead, it holds 50 stocks from a variety of other promising emerging markets that have attracted less hype, such as Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Indonesia, Malaysia, Morocco, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey.

If world markets continue to rally throughout the quarter, BBRC should be a top performer.

A word of warning: BBRC is a new ETF and is thinly traded.  DO NOT place market orders on this security; use a limit order, and keep your positions to a relatively modest size.

This article first appeared on TraderPlanet.

Related posts:

• ETN Play: Bullish on India
• Africa: The Last Investment Frontier

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The Japanese currency strengthened against most of its major peers after the Bank of Japan refrained from additional stimulus. The yen rallied from more than two weeks low against the dollar. The yen advanced against the euro as Mario Draghi indicated that the European Central Bank is waiting for the Spain to fulfill the requirements for bond buying. According to Minori Uchida, Tokyo-based Chief Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi,   the market has been disappointed a bit by the BOJ’s inaction. The BOJ meeting was graced by Japan Economic Minister Seiji Maehara, who wanted to express his discontentment with the current exchange rate. Maehara is the first Minister in nine years to participate in the BOJ meeting.

The yen has dropped by 0.5 percent against the dollar this week while the euro has advanced by 1.2 percent since September 28. The Bank of Japan indicated in statement today that it would keep its asset purchases program at 55 trillion yen after adding 10 trillion in the last meeting. The next BOJ meeting will be on October 30. According to Takuya Kawabata, the decision by the ECB was welcomed by the market as risk aversion has receded hence the firm euro. Kawabata is a currency researcher at Gaitame.com Research Institute.

Japanese currency advanced against the dollar by 0.2 percent to trade at 78.36 yen at the close of trading in Asian session. The yen had close the day yesterday in London at 78.48 when it touched its lowest since September 19 of 78.72. The yen rose marginally against the euro to trade at 101.98. The 17-nation currency was little changed against the dollar at 1.3014. It touched it highest level since September 21 of 1.3032 yesterday during the London trading session.

According to Richard Adcock, the euro is expected to test the $1.3031, the 61.8 percent retracement from the Fibonacci graph, from a low of $1.2804 last seen on October 1 to the Sept 17 high of $1.3172. Adcock is a technical analysts based in London at UBS.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – Federal Reserve have been seen as shifting from its current strategy of tying monetary policy change to the calendar to linking it with specific economic conditions such as reduction in unemployment rate. In its September 12-13 meeting, the Fed extended its time horizon of keeping close to zero rates from late 2014 to middle 2015, which some members expressed their concerns that it would be construed as a downgrade on their economic outlook. Its decision to add stimulus has been met with resentment from several quarters with skeptics saying it will not achieve the desired results.

James Hamilton, who is a Professor of Economics in San Diego at the University of California, noted that the benefits of numerical guidelines or thresholds on the monetary policy would be that the public would understand the reason why the Fed is keeping interest rates low. Hamilton’s research on effectiveness of alternative policy tools that can be used by the Fed have been cited by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke in several speeches. Hamilton’s views have also be echoed by Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans, who said that it is critical for the central bank to promise to keep interest rates low until unemployment hits 7 percent and inflation does not exceed three percent.

Other members of the FOMC have agreed that such a strategy would give the Fed flexibility to tackle changing economic issues. However, most of them expressed their concerns on reaching a consensus on specific thresholds as they have very diverse views on this subject. However, James Bullard, the St. Louis Fed President, said that introducing threshold would limit the central bank’s leeway, indicating that threshold would “put the committee in a box.”

According to the minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting, policy makers are expecting to change the size of the asset purchases program to reduce risks associated with the plan if these risks become eminent and detrimental to the economy.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Source: ForexYard

The US dollar retreated from a two-week high against the Japanese yen during overnight trading, as analysts began warning that the US labor sector’s recovery is still progressing slowly despite a surprise drop in the unemployment rate on Friday. The USD/JPY, which is currently trading at 78.30 fell close to 40 pips last night. The EUR/USD fell close to 60 pips during Asian trading, and is once again trading below the psychologically significant 1.3000 level.

Main News for Today

With bank holidays in the US, Japan and Canada today, traders will want to pay attention to any announcements out of the euro-zone. In particular, news regarding a possible Spanish bailout request has the potential to generate market volatility.

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – After adding 10 trillion yen to the existing asset purchases kitty last month, the Bank of Japan refrained from additional stimulus last week. The Japanese central bank held the asset purchases fund at 55 trillion yen as it kept the interest rate at near zero rates according to a statement it released last week after a two-day BOJ policy makers meeting in Tokyo. The Meeting, which was attended by the Economy Minister Seiji Maehara, was largely anticipated to make no changes to the monetary policy. However, the presence of Economy Minister is an indication of the government’s concern about the strengthening currency.

It is anticipated that the next meeting, which will be on October 30, may resolve to add more stimulus to the market. Hiroshi Shiraishi, a Tokyo-based Economist at BNP Paribas SA, indicated that there is a high chance the BOJ will make additional easing in the next meeting, predicting an additional stimulus amounting to ten trillion yen. Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse AG indicated that the market is now turning its attention on the next BOJ meeting, forecasting that Japan will experience two straight quarters of economic contraction by the end of the year.

Maehara, the Economic Minister, said that the attended the meeting to express the sense of crisis about the strength of the yen in the foreign exchange market. He added that he plans to attend more meetings as he tries to keep pressure on the BOJ to act. According to Masaaki Kanno, the Chief Economist at JPMorgan Securities Japan Co, while the attendance of the Minister did not have a profound impact on the policy today, there will be an impact in the coming meetings. Increased pressure from the political class came from Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who promised to fight inflation within a year. Shinzo Abe, who heads the opposition political party, indicated that he wants the inflation rate of three percent from the one percent target set by the bank.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox