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By The Sizemore Letter

As their share prices have gotten pummeled over the Bernanke “taper scare,” I’ve become increasingly bullish on REITs.  As I’ve written in recent weeks, I believe this is an excellent time to accumulate shares of high-quality “buy and forget” triple-net equity REITs.  But I also think it’s an excellent time to take a position in their more speculative cousins, mortgage REITs.

I’m not alone on this view.  The company insiders would appear to agree.

A company’s management and directors can sell their company’s stock for any number of reasons.  Perhaps they executed stock options or want to diversify their portfolio…or maybe their kids’ college tuition bill came due.  Unless the selling is widespread among several insiders, it’s hard to draw firm conclusions about insider selling.

Insider buying is a very different story, however.  There is only one reason why a company insider would buy their own stock on the open market: they consider it a good investment.

Trading on material non-public information is illegal, of course.  But there is nothing illegal about a company director using their knowledge of the business and their feelings about its prospects to make an informed purchase.  And by following their SEC filings, we can do the same.

I’ll start with American Realty Capital Properties (ARCP), a triple-net retail REIT I hold in my Dividend Growth Portfolio.  In the month of August alone, six company officers bought nearly $3 million in stock between them.  Their average price?  $13.73.  At today’s prices, you can pick of ARCP’s shares for less than what the insiders paid and enjoy a solid 6.7% dividend yield.

Let’s also take a look at the recent insider trading activity at Annaly Capital (NLY), the largest and most popular mortgage REIT. Chairman and CEO Wellington Denahan-Norris spent $2 million of her own money buying shares in August.  Three other company officers made significant purchases in the month of August as well.

The usual caveats apply here.  You should always do your own research and you should never blindly follow another investor—even a company insider.  But watching the trading moves of company insiders can provide useful insight when you’re contemplating a contrarian value trade.

Disclosures: Sizemore Capital is long ARCP. This article first appeared on TraderPlanet.

Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, is the editor of the Sizemore Investment Letter and the chief investment officer of investments firm Sizemore Capital Management. As of this writing, he was long ARCP. Click here to learn about his top 5 global investing trends and get your copy of “The Top 5 Million Dollar Trends of 2013.”

This article first appeared on Sizemore Insights as Two REITs with Insider Buying

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By OilPrice.com

On 17 July, Nicaragua announced that US-based Noble Energy would invest $30 million in drilling two offshore wells in the Caribbean—launching Nicaragua’s first-ever oil exploration. The wells will be drilled in the Tyra and Isabel blocks, which have undergone nearly 5,000 kilometers of seismic surveying since 2011. But Nicaragua’s first exploration will not go off without a hitch—namely, the revival of a nasty territorial dispute with Colombia, and another with Costa Rica.

In all Nicaragua is planning to offer up nearly 68,500 square kilometers of offshore Caribbean territory to explorers, dividing the area up into over 150 blocks.

This brings us to Noble Energy, one of our favorites over the past couple of years, but a company whose exploration bravado could land it in hot water—so we keep a close eye on developments. But here it’s all about who you know and who your friends are—and Noble’s got big friends in high places.

Noble Energy has minimal presence in Latin America, although aside from the Nicaraguan Caribbean, they purchased large areas for potential hydrocarbon exploration off the (also disputed) Falkland Islands (or Islas Malvinas, depending on your audience). Noble has built its company, in part, by drilling in unconventional corners of the globe, and the disputed waters between Colombia and Nicaragua are just such a niche.

Although Noble Energy is forging ahead with plans to drill for oil in Nicaraguan water, for most companies the potential downside of raising Colombia’s rankles outweighs the potential upside of a contract in Nicaragua.

Even before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) handed down a decision in late 2012 awarding the maritime territory to Nicaragua, Noble was preparing to get to work there. But Colombia is fighting to reverse the ICJ decision. This is a huge potential problem for outside investors with operations there and contracts with Nicaragua. Even if the bloc stays under Nicaraguan control, Colombia’s energy sector dwarfs Nicaragua’s, and drilling in the disputed area is almost certain to make Noble, and any other company working there, persona non grata in Bogotá.

Still, Noble is counting on projections that an investment of $335 million for at least five productive drills will yield 500 million barrels during the 20 to 30 year contract. They have the backing of one key man who has outlasted many and upset many predictions: Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, who will see revenues of up to $700 million a year if Noble’s projections are accurate.

Last week, tensions picked up momentum when Nicaragua’s promise became more than a threat—it became reality—when Noble’s Ocean Saratoga began drilling its first offshore exploration well. The well is being drilled 168 kilometers offshore from the Nicaraguan Caribbean coastal town of Bluefields. The first well will be drilled to a depth of 3,358 meters and exploration will be conducted over the next three months.

This is where Costa Rica comes in. Costa Rica, like Colombia, has its own claims. Specifically, Costa Rica claims maritime territory consisting of 18 blocks in the Pacific and 55 blocks in the Caribbean being offered up to explorers by Nicaragua.

Colombia’s Response

Noble’s endeavor has prompted Colombia to warn that it will under no circumstances allow oil exploration in the disputed territory. The Colombian president has also noted that its discretion on the issue for now should not be interpreted as inaction.

From Colombia’s perspective, this disputed area of the Caribbean sits in a UNESCO-sanctioned biosphere, Seaflower—home to a huge coral reef that should not be an oil-drilling target. A significant number of the blocks being offered up by Nicaragua for drilling are in this area. Also raising Colombia’s ire are the blocks located near the Colombian island of Quitasueno.

It gets even trickier when you consider that Colombia has controlled this territory since it gained independence in 1819—thanks to a number of treaties. However, those treaties—most recently one from 1928—are irrelevant, says Nicaragua, which claims that it was only signed under the pressure of US occupation. The ICJ rocked the boat on this late last year, ruling that Colombia has the right to seven islands in the territory but that Nicaragua should have the right to 70,000 square kilometers more than it was granted under those old treaties. Colombia is now challenging this legal assumption to the best of its ability. But the legal battle will extend further now that Nicaragua is seeking even more than the 70,000 square kilometers the ICJ thinks it should have.

Conclusion

Noble’s got its diplomatic work cut out for it, but its relying on full support from Ortega to deal with these territorial disputes. But there’s additional risk on this one as well. Nicaragua is uncharted territory, and the company itself notes only a 25% chance of success with its first well. This is just the test-run, intended to gather information for Noble’s Caribbean coast drilling ambitions, for which it plans to invest anywhere between $90 million and $335 million over the next six years, depending on how successful this first well is.

But Noble is opening up a Pandora’s Box here—much like it has in the Levant Basin with its wild exploration discovery of natural gas for Israel and a simmering dispute with Lebanon. So far, the company has managed to avoid getting entangled, but Nicaragua could be a legal headache—or worse. Where Noble is concerned, Colombia is the biggest problem, while the battle with Costa Rica is simmering faster on other grievances the country has with Nicaragua (and the US)—namely, ambitions to build a $40 billion Nicaragua Canal to rival the Panama Canal. Right now the most important thing to watch is the ICJ, which could be the kink in this chain.

By. Oil & Energy Insider Analysts of Oilprice.com

This report is part of Oilprice.com’s premium publication Oil & Energy Insider. Oil & Energy Insider gives subscribers an information advantage when investing, trading or doing business in the energy sectors. Successful investors, hedge funds and senior executives, have access to high level intelligence and power in ways that you, as an individual investor, are locked out of (the game is and never has been fair.) Let us help you level the playing field by using our network of traders, intelligence assets and high level partnerships to ensure you are making the right investment decisions.

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London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Tues 3 Sept 09:05 EST

WHOLESALE London prices for physical gold jumped $15 from a drop to $1384 per ounce Tuesday morning, gaining after the Interfax news agency in Russia – political ally of Syria’s President Assad – reported two “objects” being fired in the Mediterranean, towards the sea’s eastern coast.

 The gold price then fell back only to rise and touch $1400 for the first time this week – 2.5% below last Wednesday’s 3-month high – as Israel confirmed the launch, saying it was done to test what Reuters calls a “US-funded” anti-missile system.

 “As long as Syria stays quiet, I would rather sell rallies [in the gold price] at the moment,” says David Govett at brokers Marex.

 But “we would also expect the metal to find support on pull backs,” says Walter de Wet at Standard Bank in London, “not only because Asian demand is likely to improve with gold below $1400, but also because geo-political risk around Syria remains high and oil prices elevated.

 “This may also keep ETF liquidation at bay.”

 Western investors sold exchange-traded gold funds heavily in the first half of 2013, leading gold ETFs to shed 650 tonnes of bullion.

 Holdings have since stabilized some 25% below end-2012’s record levels.

 Over in Asia and the Middle East notes Commerzbank’s commodity research team, “Physical gold buyers who had hugely stepped up their purchases after the price collapsed in the spring, appear to be acting opportunistically and with great price sensitivity.

 “In the wake of the latest price rise, it seems that they have withdrawn again,” says the German bank, pointing to August’s drop in US gold coin sales, plus today’s news of a 7-month low in Turkey’s gold bullion imports.

 Reviewing last week’s pop above $1430 per ounce as the UK and US debated immediate action against Syria’s Assad regime for an apparent chemical weapons attack on civilians, “If air strikes take place gold could well fall,” writes Jonathan Butler at Mitsubishi, “and if this takes place against a backdrop of QE tapering, the downwards correction could be sharp.”

 The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a reduction of its $85 billion-per-month QE program at its policy meeting in two weeks’ time.

 Meantime, the gold price “should be well supported in the coming days,” says Butler. “But Friday’s US payroll data may be negative for gold, however.”

 Asian stock markets rose overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei adding 3% and the Shanghai index now regaining half of June’s 15% plunge after new data indicated lower new order for China’s manufacturers, but strong expecations for the future.

 European stock markets held flat overall. Both the Euro and Sterling slipped against the Dollar.

 Ten-year US Treasury yields rose to 2.84% as bond prices fell. Brent crude oil added 0.7% to rise above $115 per barrel.

 Silver bullion meantime rose further above $24 per ounce, reaching 4-session highs some 5.7% above Monday morning’s early low.

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold and silver in Zurich or Singapore for just 0.5% commission.

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

The EURUSD Testing the Support at 1.3176

Yesterday the market activity was low due to the day off in the USA. The EURUSD was traded in a narrow range between the resistance at 1.3227 and support of 1.3185. Today the pair is under pressure and testing an important level at 1.3176 for the bulls. Moving averages and the Parabolic SAR expect the price decline, but it could be restricted by the 1.3147 level where the 10- day MA traversing. Overcoming of 1.3176—1.3147 will lead to drop down to 1.3070 and 1.3020. The bulls should recover the currency rate of the pair above 1.3263 to improve prospects.

The GBPUSD Holding Above the 55th Figure

Continuing decline in the EURGDP again supported the GBPUSD pair. A drop towards 1.5505 attracted buyers, and the pair rose to 1.5569, and soon to 1.5593. Here the pound came under pressure and fell to 1.5531. Until it is traded above the support at the 55th figure, the chances for continued growth remain, but the decline in the EURUSD will entail the GBPUSD, therefore, the loss of this support should not be excluded. In this case, the pair fall to 1.5462-1.5428. A drop below 1.5376 would be a negative sign for the bulls on the pound.

The USDCHF Continues Increase

Yesterday the dollar was traded with a positive sentiment. When it tested the support at 0.9307, the pair overcame the resistance at 0.9335 and increased to 0.9348. Now this level has been also punched. The dollar has tested the marker of 0.9371. Thus, the USDCHF is approaching to the August’s highs close to the 94th figure where the dollar was actively oversold. Consequently, the bulls should break through and consolidate above this level, then they can rely on further growth towards 0.9500-0.9533. The loss of support at 0.9307 will worsen prospects for the dollar.

The USDJPY Approaching to the 100th Figure

The USDJPY continues its growth, punched the resistance at 99.00 and increased to 99.70. The bears should forget about a downward correction, in any case, at this stage. There is a strong resistance at the 100-th figure on the bulls` way. If it punches, the growth of the dollar continues. In this case, the next target level for the bulls will be the 100.68 level. The level of 99.00 will act as a support, and a drop below will weaken the bulls` position.

provided by IAFT

By www.CentralBankNews.info     Uganda’s central bank raised its central bank rate (CBR) by 100 basis points to 12.0 percent, saying a “modest tightening of monetary policy should act to discourage economic agents from raising non food prices in response to the food price shocks and should counter any rise in inflation expectations.”
    The Bank of Uganda (BOU), which cut its rate by 100 basis points in June, quoted its governor, Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile, as saying he expects the core inflation rate to remain above 6 percent for the next few months, but by tightening policy now, “I am confident that it will fall back towards our policy target of 5 percent by the third quarter of 2014.”
    Uganda is facing a supply side shock to agriculture that has raised food prices and may impede economic growth in 2013/14, the central bank said, with the risks to the outlook for core inflation over the next 12 months clearly rising.
    Headline inflation rose to 7.3 percent in August from 5.1 percent in July, driven by a 16 percent rise in food crop prices due to drought. Core inflation, however, remained relatively stable at 6.6 percent but the central bank said core inflation is likely to be pushed up because higher food prices affect items within the core inflation basket, such as maize and flour, and higher food prices also feed through to the general price level via cost-push effects and inflation expectations.

   Despite the worsening outlook for inflation, the central bank said it does not expect a repeat of the inflationary surge in 2011 because rapid bank credit growth and a large exchange rate depreciation do not pose the same effects in the current situation.
    “Nevertheless, it is prudent to ensure that any second round effects from the food supply shock on non food prices are contained, thereby limiting the upward pressure on core inflation, through a timely adjustment of monetary policy,” the bank said.
    The governor said he was fully aware of the potential impact of the rat rise on economic activity, however “it is my strong view that this is a necessary to anchor inflation expectations and to support economic growth over the medium to long term.”
    The central bank’s band around the central bank rate will remain at plus/minus two percentage points and the margin on the rediscount rate will be three percentage points. The rediscount rate will be 15 percent and the bank rate 16 percent.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

By HY Markets Forex Blog

West Texas Intermediate futures continued to fall on Tuesday as it set to extend its decline to a fourth session, while investors worries over the pending military strike against Syria eased. Brent dropped lower significantly after driven by the data’s from European factories outputs showing greater appetite for oil.

WTI October deliveries dropped 0.63% to $106.98 a barrel in New York’s Nymex  at the time of writing, while Brent crude futures traded flat in London, edging up 0.03% to $114.37 a barrel.

North American light crude benchmark dropped $1.06 a barrel, while Brent gained $0.32 in the previous session, with assistance from the better-than-expected European factory data.

Crude Futures – Syria delayed

Crude futures was at its third month of weekly gains as the situation in Syria eased after the US President Barack Obama said he will wait for the approval from the  Congress before proceeding with any military action against Syria. The operation is expected to be postponed until September 9. Meanwhile, France has said it would wait for the US decision.

Crude Futures – Positive factory data

With the positive manufacturing PMI data from both Europe and China, the global outlook was boosted at the same time. The positive manufacturing PMI data showed that a possible raise in crude demand in the future may occur with Markit’s euro data manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) boosted, with a growth of 51.4 points in August, up from 50.3 in the previous month. While the European benchmark Brent crude was affected by the news, still rising above the $114 threshold.

Data released earlier this week confirmed that factories in China surpassed analysts’ forecasts, as the official PMI rose to a 16-month high of 51.0 points. On Tuesday, official non-manufacturing PMI showed a decline from July’s 54.3 to %3.9 points in August.

Meanwhile, investors worries over the supply jitters shuddering the oil markets in oil-rich Libya, Africa’s largest oil reserves, according to US Energy Information Administration data.

Visit www.hymarkets.com  today and find out more on how you can how you can trade Energy products with only $50.

The post Crude Futures: WTI Declines On Syria Delay;Brent Above $114 level appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

Written by www.ew-forecast.com
EURUSD is trading nicely lower for the last week or so which could be start of a new larger impulsive bearish trend. However, decline from 1.3450 is actually still in three waves so corrective outlook must not be ignored but we will stay with current sentiment and focus on the bearish scenario as long as 1.3400 holds. Ideally market is now in the middle of an impulsive wave 3, and broken support channel line (blue circled zone on 4h chart) is important evidence for this count, because this breakout usually causes an acceleration that makes wave three the longest and sharpest wave. Downside projections for wave 3 are at 1.3130 and 1.3040.
EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

On a daily chart we can see that EURUSD has been in uptrend mode almost all summer from 1.2750, but recovery has a corrective look. With that said, we think that move is complex correction, probably a flat and that larger trend will continue lower, especially if we consider a five wave decline from 1.3700 at the start of the year. Keep in mind that impulses show direction of a larger trend, which in our case it means down. If we are correct then latest bullish leg represents wave C) of a three wave pull-back that is already showing some evidences of a top at 1.3450. We however still need a larger impulsive weakness towards 1.3000 to confirm the end point of wave (2). If pair can do that, then EURUSD will be ready for a sharp fall in the rest of the year, probably to 1.2500 if not lower.
EURUSD Daily Elliott Wave Analysis

On a weekly chart we are also tracking a huge head and shoulder pattern where right shoulder could already be finished, so weakness is expected towards the neckline.
EURUSD Weekly Head & Shoulder Pattern

Written by www.ew-forecast.com | Try EW-Forecast.com’s Services Free for 7 Days

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Major Asian stocks were seen in green on Tuesday, driven by the positive manufacturing data from Europe and China, along with the Markit’s euro area manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) boosted to 51.4 points in August. While the Official PMI rose to a 16-month high of 51.0 points from previous reading of 50.3 points in July.

The Japanese yen was weakened to a one-month low against the greenback, boosting the country’s stock and driven by the upbeat data which shows that the global economy is recovering and stabilizing. The yen was traded 0.13% lower at ¥99.45 at the time of writing.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 advanced on Tuesday, edging 2.99% higher to 13,978.44 points and reaching a three-week high during the session.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced that the country’s monetary base rose from previous record of 38% in July to 42% in August, exceeding analysts forecast of 41.3%. Japan’s spending signified above-forecast figures as it was recorded flat in the second-quarter.

A separate report released from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Welfare and Labour revealed that Japan’s average cash earnings increased 0.4%.

Exporters were driven by the country’s weaker yen, with Honda Motors, Japan’s second-largest automobile manufacturers edging 1.8% higher and Toyota Motor gained 3% during the day. Mitsubishi Motors, the sixth biggest automaker in the country, soared 7.5% higher.

Tokyo’s broader Topix index surged a massive 2.81% to 1,149.18 points.

Asian Stocks – China Positive Data

Gains were seen during the session in China , with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.88% higher to 22,371 points and the Chinese mainland Shanghai index advanced 1.18% to 2123.10 points.

Chinese companies were driven by the upbeat manufacturing data, suggesting that the country’s economy is recovering at a faster pace.

The official non-manufacturing PMI for August declined from July’s 54.3 points to 53.9 in August, according to reports from the National Bureau of Statistics.

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The post Asian Stocks Climbs On Global Recovery appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By www.CentralBankNews.info     Australia’s central bank held its cash rate steady at 2.5 percent, as expected, and repeated that it would “continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation consistent with the target.”
    The policy guidance was the same as The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) gave last month when it cut its rate for the second time this year, indicating that the central bank has adopted a neutral policy stance. In previous months, the RBA had said that it had scope to adjust policy, but this phrase is no longer used.
   The RBA, which has cut rates by 50 basis points this year and by 225 points since October 2011, also repeated last month’s statement that the Australian dollar “remains at a high level” although it has depreciated by around 15 percent since early April and it is “possible that the exchange rate will depreciate further over time, which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy.”
    The RBA said rate cuts since late 2011 had supported interest-sensitive spending and asset values and further effects can be expected over time. The pace of borrowing has remained relatively subdued, though recently there are signs of increased demand for finance by households.
    The A$, which had been above parity to the U.S. dollar most of the time since early 2011, started to weaken in early May in response to the RBA’s first rate cut and was trading below 0.90 cents to the U.S dollar earlier today, down some 13 percent since the beginning of the year.

    Economic growth in Australia has been hit by a slowdown in China’s imports of raw materials and the RBA said below-trend growth is expected to continue in the near term as the economy adjusts to lower mining investment.
    Australia’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 0.6 percent in the first quarter from the previous quarter for annual growth of 2.5 percent, down from 3.1 percent in the four and third quarters.    Australia’s unemployment rate has also moved higher while inflation remains consistent with the RBA’s target of 2-3 percent.
    “With growth in labour costs moderating, this is expected to remain  the case over the next one to two years, even with the effects of the recent depreciation of the exchange rate,” the RBA said about inflation.

    Australia’s inflation rate was 2.4 percent in second quarter, slightly below the first quarter’s 2.5 percent but up from the fourth quarter’s 2.2 percent.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

By WallStreetDaily.com

It’s officially September in the market – which is notorious for being the worst month for stocks. And, right on cue, every major media outlet is spreading fear.

Everywhere we look, an ominous headline greets us…

“September is a stock market graveyard,” declares The Globe and Mail.

Over at CNBC, we’re told, “Look out! September market headwinds are looming.”

The approach I fancy the most comes from The International Business Times: “Why September is The Worst Month of The Year: Stocks Tank; Banks Fail.” (Please note… just because it’s September doesn’t mean, say… Bank of America (BAC) is about to collapse!)

I could go on and on with the examples. But you get the point. We should be scared stockless right now.

Granted, uncertainties abound – any of which could reasonably sink the market. There’s the worsening situation in Syria, the imminent start of the Fed Taper – and, of course, the never-ending debt ceiling and budget debates in our nation’s capitol.

But all the fears are overblown. In fact, we might actually be in store for a September surprise. Let me explain…

An Undeniable Tendency

I’m not going to deny that September’s terrible reputation is well deserved.

As MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert reminds us: “Since the Dow was created in 1896, it has lost an average of 1.09% during September. The average return during all other months, in contrast, has been a gain of 0.75%.”

That’s a spread of almost 2%, which is huge, statistically speaking.

Sadly, the track record for the S&P 500 Index in September isn’t any better…

As Guggenheim Partners’ Scott Minerd wrote in a recent note to clients, “Since 1929, the S&P Composite Index has averaged -1.1% for September, making it one of only three months with negative average returns over that time.”

But does that automatically mean stocks are doomed this September, too, and we should bail on the market until October to be safe? Not a chance!

Don’t Be Misled

As Hulbert notes, there’s no “plausible explanation” for why stocks fare so poorly (and consistently) in September. And he’s right. So it could be just a statistical fluke that should be ignored, not feared.

I mean, changing levels of butter production in Bangladesh statistically explain the majority of the moves of the Dow, too. But you don’t hear about anyone using that data point to make investment decisions, do you?

Of course not. Because correlation doesn’t equal causation. And the same truth applies to any month on the calendar. It might correlate to weak or strong returns. But there’s no causation involved.

What’s more, we need to remember that the stats above merely reflect the averages. Not every single September is a downer for stocks. In fact, stocks rose 3.57% in September 2009 and 2.42% in September 2012 (more about this in a moment).

What about those uncertainties I mentioned before, though? Couldn’t they spark a selloff?

It’s not likely. Known risks tend to be priced into the market already. They’re not the real danger.

So what is? I’ll let the infamous words of former Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, tell you:

“There are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don’t know.”

It’s that last group of unknowns – things we don’t know that we don’t know – that sinks markets.

They’re also known as Black Swan events. And how in the world do you devise an investment strategy to protect against them? You can’t.

The only reliable and rational solution in any market environment is to use trailing stops and stay invested in the market. And that’s especially true this year.

No Reason for Paranoia, Here

While everyone is fretting over the possibility of a September swoon based on over 100 years of data, the number crunchers over at Bespoke Investment Group uncovered an interesting anomaly.

They discovered that during strongly positive years for the market – when the S&P 500 is already up 10% to 25% by September – average returns are actually positive.

Based on 25 occurrences, the S&P 500 averages a gain of 1.29% in September. And it delivers positive returns 68% of the time, according to Bespoke. (That compares to positive returns only 43% of the time during all Septembers.)

Keep in mind that we already witnessed two such occurrences during the current bull market, which I alluded to before…

Heading into September 2009, the market was up 12.9%. Heading into September of last year, the market was up 11.9%. And in both instances, the stock market defied history and rallied during September.

Bottom line: The market is up big again this year (16.5%). And that means the stage is set for a rally, not a selloff. No matter how much the financial media tries to tell you otherwise.

Ahead of the tape,

Louis Basenese

The post Surprise! Stocks Aren’t Guaranteed to Tank in September appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: Surprise! Stocks Aren’t Guaranteed to Tank in September