Deciding on a Forex Trading Platform

Deciding which forex trading platform to use is the first thing that many traders have to do. Most forex brokers have their own proprietary trading platform, which means that this decision may play a key role in deciding which broker to use. While most forex trading platforms may seem similar on the surface, all of them have their differences and idiosyncrasies. There are three main factors that you should consider when deciding on a forex trading platform: usability, latency and compatibility. Since it can be disruptive to switch systems and brokers, you should take your time and do your research before settling on your platform.

The usability of a trading platform includes how intuitive it is to use and how easy it is to customize. A trading platform needs to be simple, direct and easy to use. You want your trading strategy to dictate how you use the platform, not the other way around. You will already have many factors working against you and your money, your platform shouldn’t add to that. A good trading platform will be able to be modified, extended and customized to suit any trader’s strategies. You never want to feel limited by the capabilities of your software, or find yourself fumbling for the correct keyboard shortcuts at a critical time.

Latency is the amount of time it takes for the system to react to your actions and the amount of time it takes the system to report data to you. Latency can be a problem with the broker’s network as well as the platform itself. In an extremely fast-paced market, latency is especially hurtful. Scalpers can have their techniques completely invalidated by even seemingly insignificant levels of lag, so it is vital to test out the latency of your broker and your trading platform. For those who hold positions long-term, latency is not as critical an issue.

Compatibility is becoming especially important, but this does not just mean whether the platform runs on PCs or Macs. Cross compatibility also includes the ability to log into your trading platform on your phone or tablet, which can be extremely vital. Since the forex market is open 24 hours a day, it is impossible to be glued to the computer screen at all times. Those who have trading strategies that demand continuous management will find phone and tablet applications practically a necessity. A fast, bug-free and reliable mobile application for your trading platform can radically alter your trading possibilities, especially for traders that may not know where they’ll be when news hits.

While it is your strategy and your discipline that will ultimately make or break you as a forex trader, your trading platform is going to become your best friend and closest colleague. Remember that your trading platform’s limitations are your limitations. You will need to learn your system well and utilize it to its fullest extent, especially with more complex forex strategies. While the right platform does not assure success in the forex market, the wrong platform will almost assuredly lead to failure.

To learn more please visit www.clmforex.com

Disclaimer: Trading of foreign exchange contracts, contracts for difference, derivatives and other investment products which are leveraged, can carry a high level of risk. These products may not be suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose more than your initial investment. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) is available from the company website . Please read and consider the PDS before making any decision to trade Core Liquidity Markets’ products. The risks must be understood prior to trading. Core Liquidity Markets refers to Core Liquidity Markets Pty Ltd. Core Liquidity Markets is an Australian company which is registered with ASIC, ACN 164 994 049. Core Liquidity Markets is an authorized representative of Direct FX Trading Pty Ltd (AFSL) Number 305539, which is the authorizing Licensee and Principal.

 

Israel holds rate steady as shekel appreciates

By www.CentralBankNews.info     Israel’s central bank kept its policy rate steady at 1.0 percent, as widely expected after three cuts earlier this year, saying future rate moves depend on inflation, economic growth, the monetary policy of major central banks and the exchange rate of the shekel.
    The Bank of Israel (BOI), which has cut its rate by 75 basis points this year to help stem the rise in the shekel and counter weaker economic growth, noted that the appreciation of the shekel had come to a halt in the last month, weakening by 1.5 percent in terms of its effective exchange rate and by 0.7 percent against the U.S. dollar while most other currencies had strengthened.
    The shekel has risen steadily against the U.S. dollar this year, hitting a high of 3.49 to the U.S. dollar on Sept. 19 compared with 3.73 at the end of last year. But since Sept. 19, the day after the U.S. Federal Reserve delayed its tapering of asset purchases, the shekel has risen and was trading at 3.53 today.
    Among the main considerations behind its decision to maintain its interest rate, the BOI said that inflation remains within its 1-3 percent target range of and below the midpoint. Israel’s inflation rate was steady at 1.3 percent in September from August.

    The bank also said that economic activity continued at a rate that was slightly below 3 percent, excluding natural gas output, although several indicators point to a slowdown in the third quarter, primarily in exports and industrial production.
    It also referred to its three recent rate cuts, the International Monetary Fund’s reduced global growth forecasts and the Federal Reserve’s delayed tapering of its bond purchases.
    In addition, the BOI said the number of housing transactions continues to decline though home prices continue to rise along with a high volume of new mortgages.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

Monetary Policy Week in Review – Oct 21-25, 2013: Mexico, Jordan cut as 5 central banks strike dovish tone

By www.CentralBankNews.info

    Last week Mexico and Jordan’s central banks cut their policy rates while five other banks – Canada, Sweden, Norway, Colombia and Namibia – struck more dovish tones, underscoring that the era of extraordinary accommodative monetary policy is set to continue into next year.
    Slower-than-expected global growth, which led the U.S. Federal Reserve to delay its expected tapering of asset purchases, has now forced the Bank of Canada and Norges Bank to drop their tightening biases, while an unflappable Swedish Riksbank maintained its tightening bias but nevertheless cut its growth forecasts.
    The Federal Reserve’s surprise decision last month to continue its $85 billion monthly purchases immediately eased the pressure on emerging market currencies by restoring capital inflows, a shift that allowed the Bank of Jordan to cut its rates for the second time this year.
    The Bank of Mexico, which has also seen its peso rebound after falling in May along with other major emerging market currencies, cut its rate for the third time this year on growing downside risks to global growth and flagged that it would be trimming its growth forecast.
   The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey also benefited from the prospect of continued ultra easy monetary policy in advanced economies, leaving its rates on hold as the recent rise in its lira currency is helping keep inflation under control.
   Although the Central Bank of Colombia maintained its rates last week following three cuts earlier this year, it noted that the downside risks were “not negligible and may have increased recently.”
    Other central banks that maintained rates last week include the Central Bank of the Philippines and the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan
    But while most of the world’s central banks are still leaning toward further easing, there is a growing recognition of the dangers to financial stability from continued low policy rates, whether the dangers stem from high property prices – as evidenced by a warning from Germany’s Bundesbank last week and observed in a raft of countries such as New Zealand, China, Sweden, Canada, Norway and London – or from investors throwing caution to the wind by taking on excessive risk.
    And during the U.S. flirtation with an unprecedented default the previous week, one of the scary prospects was the realization that the Fed and other major advanced central banks with ultra-easy policy have limited ammunition to counter the global financial chaos that would arise from such a default.
    There is thus is a growing bias within central banks towards normalizing policy rates so it’s far from a foregone conclusion that global interest rates will continue to decline for much longer.
    In addition, there were fresh signs of economic improvement last week.
    In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England is expected to signal in next month’s inflation report that interest rates may rise sooner than currently forecast as the economy is accelerating, data from China topped expectations and investors are increasingly confident about the euro zone’s slow, but steady climb back from recession.
   
    Last week’s two rate cuts reinforced this year’s trend toward lower rates with policy rates through the first 43 weeks of this year now cut 96 times, or 23.3 percent of this year’s 412 policy decisions taken by the 90 central banks followed by Central Bank News.
    This is up from 94 total rate cuts after the previous week, but slightly down in percentage terms from 23.4 percent, and down from 25.3 percent after the first six months of the year.
    Meanwhile, the trend toward higher rates seen in September has weakened with the number of rate increases worldwide stagnating in the last three weeks at 22. In percentage terms, rate rises declined in to 5.3 percent last week from this year’s 412 policy decisions, down from 5.5 percent the previous week but still up from 4.7 percent at the end of the first half.
    
    LAST WEEK’S (WEEK 43) MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS:

COUNTRYMSCI     NEW RATE           OLD RATE         1 YEAR AGO
JORDANFM4.50%4.75%5.00%
NAMIBIA5.50%5.50%5.50%
TURKEYEM4.50%4.50%5.75%
UZBEKISTAN12.00%12.00%12.00%
CANADADM1.00%1.00%1.00%
NORWAYDM1.50%1.50%1.50%
SWEDEN1.00%1.00%1.25%
PHILIPPINESEM3.50%3.50%3.50%
MEXICOEM3.50%3.75%4.50%
COLOMBIAEM3.25%3.25%4.75%
    
    This week (week 44) nine central banks are scheduled to hold policy meetings, including Israel, Angola, India, Hungary, United States, Fiji, Egypt, New Zealand and Zambia. Zambia has announced it will hold its meeting at the end of the month but not the specific day.

COUNTRYMSCI             DATE CURRENT  RATE        1 YEAR AGO
ISRAELDM28-Oct1.00%2.00%
ANGOLA28-Oct9.75%10.25%
INDIAEM29-Oct7.50%8.00%
HUNGARYEM29-Oct3.60%6.25%
UNITED STATESDM30-Oct0.25%0.25%
FIJI31-Oct0.50%0.50%
EGYPTEM31-Oct8.75%9.25%
NEW ZEALANDDM31-Oct2.50%2.50%
ZAMBIA                 ?9.75%9.25%
  

How Low Interest Rates Are Holding 144 Million U.S. Workers Hostage

281310_DL_whitefootby John Paul Whitefoot, BA

Are the long-term retirement plans of working Americans being held hostage by the Federal Reserve?

If the point of quantitative easing was to stave off a recession and spur jobs growth, I think it’s fair to say the Federal Reserve’s $85.0-billion-per-month money-printing scheme has been a failure. At the very least, I’m not so sure the money was well spent, and that the end does not justify the means.

I enter as evidence almost $4.0 trillion that the Federal Reserve has dumped into the U.S. economy since 2009. To put that into perspective, the average unemployment rate that same year was around 8.5%; that translates into roughly 13.1 million Americans being out of work in 2009. Fast-forward to today, and the unemployment rate stands at an unacceptable 7.2%, or 11.3 million Americans. (Sources: “Civilian Labor Force (CLF16OV),” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Research web site, last accessed October 24, 2013; “The Employment Situation – September 2013,” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics web site, October 22, 2013.)

It could be argued that over the last four years, the Federal Reserve has printed off $4.0 trillion to create 1.8 million jobs.

But at what expense? Since the stock market crash in 2008, the Federal Reserve, through its use of quantitative easing, has sent U.S. interest rates towards near-record lows. In fact, the Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate target between zero and 0.25% for almost five years.

That’s terrible news for anyone looking to save money, and near-record-low interest rates make it virtually impossible for people to save money to meet their retirement needs. Sadly, for those nearing or already in retirement, the artificially low interest rate environment has taken income out of fixed income investing and devastated their retirement savings.

So much so, in fact, that 37% of middle-class Americans say they’ll never retire. On top of that, 42% say it’s impossible to pay monthly bills and save for retirement. (Source: “Middle Class Americans Face a Retirement Shutdown; 37% Say ‘I’ll Never Retire, But Work Until I’m Too Sick or Die,’ a Wells Fargo Study Finds,” Wells Fargo web site, October 23, 2013.)

Thanks to a near-zero interest rate environment, the retirement plans of today’s 144 million working Americans have been decimated. But in the eyes of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government, it’s been money well printed. In a nutshell, 144 million Americans have had their retirement savings held hostage so the Federal Reserve and U.S. government can point to marginal jobs growth.

But even that is debatable. Keep in mind that millions of Americans have stopped looking for work and are not counted among the unemployed, suggesting more people today are out of work than before the Federal Reserve stepped in to “save” the U.S. economy.

Does the end justify the means? While it’s great that the American economy is creating jobs, it’s tough to say whether it’s been worth almost $4.0 trillion and an income environment that has been punishing the 144 million working Americans who have spent years saving for retirement.

Sure, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NYSE are enjoying a record run, but again, middle-class America is missing out. Only 24% of middle-class Americans are confident in the stock market as an investment vehicle for retirement, and 45% say the stock market doesn’t benefit people like them.

But with the S&P 500 up 23% year-to-date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 18%, the NASDAQ up 27%, and the Federal Reserve still printing off money and devaluing the dollar, the stock market is, without question, the place to be.

While investors still need to show caution and understand where they’re parking their retirement money, there are a lot of great investment opportunities out there right now, both domestically and internationally.

This article How Low Interest Rates Are Holding 144 Million U.S. Workers Hostage was originally published at Daily Gains Letter

 

 

Is Following Irrationality the New Trade Strategy?

by Mohammad Zulfiqar, BA

As the U.S. government shutdown was prolonged, not only was there noise about getting away from the U.S. dollar, but also about what happens to the U.S. economy next. On one hand, there was a consensus that the U.S. government shutdown was actually a good thing, serving as a cost-cutting measure that allowed the government to save money. On the other hand, there were those who said it was impacting the U.S. economy’s recovery process and would wipe a certain percentage off the U.S. economy’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Both sides had a solid argument to prove their point about the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the U.S. economy, but my stance differs from that of both groups. Before going into the details, be aware that we don’t know the exact impact of the shutdown just yet, because the economic data has not been released, but time will eventually draw a better picture.

So what’s my take on the U.S. government shutdown that happened for 16 days? Forget the shutdown; it didn’t matter. What I am concerned about is the other dismal trends that continue to remain in the U.S. economy. If they are not fixed or their direction doesn’t change, then economic growth in the U.S. economy becomes very doubtful.

One of the trends I have been closely following is the unemployment in the U.S. economy. I agree that the number on the surface, the unemployment rate, looks much better than what it was during the financial crisis. However, when I assess and analyze the details, it’s not looking very good.

What you want to see are Americans getting better-paying jobs; once this happens, they will have disposable incomes, which promotes consumer spending. Sadly, they are just not getting those. We are seeing a significant amount of jobs creation in the low-wage-paying sectors of the U.S. economy, but not in sectors like construction and mining, where wages are better.

On top of all this, those who are unemployed in the U.S. economy are staying out of work for much longer than usual. For example, in September, the average duration of unemployment was 36.9 weeks; this means that those who are unemployed are off work for an average of more than nine months. In early 2009, this number stood at 20 weeks. (Source: “Average (Mean) Duration of Unemployment (UEMPMEAN),” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Research web site, last accessed October 23, 2013.)

Unfortunately, what many are not focusing on is that as Americans remain unemployed longer, they will begin to forget and lose their skills. This results in them having an even harder time finding jobs in the future. In addition, once a person is unemployed for an extended period, they risk having to give up unemployment claims and any savings they may have accumulated.

When I look at this, I have to wonder if all the effort we have seen by the Federal Reserve and the government was useful or not.

I don’t think the recovery in the U.S. economy that we have been hoping for since the financial crisis will occur by printing money. If there had been some progress, we would have these anemic trends turning into healthy ones by now; currently, they remain on the same trajectory.

As a result, I continue to watch key stock indices very carefully, as they seem to be running ahead of reality. Investors have to keep in mind the quote of John Maynard Keynes: “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” This may be the case now. Follow irrationality, but be very careful at the same time.

 

This article Is Following Irrationality the New Trade Strategy? was originally published at Daily Gains Letter

Urge to “Dump Gold” Finished as US Fed “Turns Dovish”, Diwali Begins

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Mon 28 Oct 08:25 EST

WHOLESALE London prices of gold sat tight Monday morning, holding onto Friday’s 6-week closing high as European stockmarkets failed to continue a rise in Asian shares.

 Silver was unchanged with commodities, major government bonds and gold, sitting at $22.58 per ounce by lunchtime.

 The US Dollar rallied after hitting a new 9-month low on its trade-weighted index against major competitor currencies.

 Gold last week enjoyed its strongest rise in almost 3 months, adding 2.6% as silver rose 2.9%.

 “Gold’s ascent above $1350, to one-month highs, has been driven by investor interest,” says a note from Barclays Capital, pointing to the “largest daily increase” in exchange-traded gold funds, which give investors exposure to the metal’s price without them taking physical ownership, since January.

 Over the week as a whole, however, the largest gold ETF – the SPDR Gold Trust listed in New York (ticker: GLD), as well as in Hong Kong and other financial centers – saw its holdings drop 10 tonnes, hitting new 54-month lows of 871.

 The GLD started 2013 with near-record holdings of 1,350 tonnes, before shedding 380 tonnes as prices crashed in the first half of the year.

 “There’s not much reason anymore to dump gold further,” says one London trading desk in a note, “[not] while the US Fed renews its dovish stance after a miserable attempt at the medium-rare hawk side of things.

 “In truth, the USA are cornered by a sluggish growth.”

 The US central bank begins a two-day meeting on Tuesday, announcing its monetary policy on Wednesday. Many analysts now expect it to stick with $85 billion of monthly quantitative easing.

 Looking at short-term interest rates, now held at zero for almost four years, “the implied yield on the Fed funds futures contract for December 2015 has fallen from a recent peak of 1.45% percent to 0.65%,” says Reuters, “highlighting that investors have scaled back rate hikes expectations in 2015 and beyond.”

 “There’s no real indication,” said Thomas Capalbo at New York brokers Newedge, speaking after Friday’s weaker-than-expected US data, “that things are getting much better, and no indication saying that we are going to see tapering soon.

 “So that’s going to be beneficial for gold and probably silver too.”

 US regulator the CFTC is currently three weeks behind with its Commitment of Traders data for gold and silver futures, owing to this month’s debt-ceiling shutdown.

 Gold in India – the world’s heaviest consumer nation – meantime held near record highs above international benchmarks on Monday, with the premium in Mumbai at $120 per ounce.

 The peak gold-buying festival of Diwali begins on Saturday. After surprising market analysts with a small interest-rate rise in September, Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan will announce the latest policy move on Tuesday.

 “Impact of high gold premiums will be there on prices on the [start of Diwali] Dhanteras day,” says Haresh Soni, chairman of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation, “because supplies have dried up in the absence of imports in the last three months due to government curbs.”

 Jewelry sales are stable from Diwali last year, says Soni, but sales of investment gold bars and coins are running at half 2012 levels.

 Former president of the Bombay Bullion Association Suresh Hundia disagrees, says MoneyControl, putting India’s jewelry sales down by 60%, with coin and gold bar sales 70% lower.

 “Government has banned import of bars and coins,” says Hundia. “So, there is no supply to meet the demand for such items on the festival day.”

 The Times of India today reports what it calls a “treasure trove” of mineral resources discovered in Uttar Pradesh, including up to 0.25 tonnes of gold.

 India last year imported some 845 tonnes of gold to meet domestic demand.

 Smuggling may have increased by 50% so far in 2013, reports the New Indian Express.

 The number of Indian customs gold seizures is little changed from 2012, the Business Standard says, but the value of those hauls has jumped by well over 300%.

 Over in China, meantime premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange briefly went negative overnight, recovering to $1.50 per ounce above London spot gold prices but down from this spring’s record levels of $30.

 Next month’s planning meeting for Beijing’s politburo will see “unprecedented” reforms, according to Yu Zhengsheng, the fourth-highest member of the Communist Party’s Standing Committee.

 Interbank interest rates rose again in Shanghai today, taking the annualized cost of 1-month money to 6.48%, the highest level since June’s spike to double digits.

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online

 

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can fully allocated bullion already vaulted in your choice of London, New York, Singapore, Toronto or Zurich for just 0.5% commission.

 

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

 

 

 

Is Sitting on the Fence the Best Investment Strategy Right Now?

281310_IC_leongby George Leong, B.Comm.

Recently, a friend called me up and asked for some investment advice. He wondered if he should run for the exits, given the recent run-up in the stock market in what is now a somewhat euphoric investment climate.

My response? Yes and no.

I told my friend to take some profits off the table, but at the same time, he should also ride the stock market higher to what will likely be higher upside moves.

This is something that I have constantly advised during this recent stock market rally.

Hey, why take all of the your profits off the table now when there will surely (at least I’m thinking) be more gains to end the year? That is, of course, if the shopping season doesn’t tank and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke doesn’t decide to surprise us with tapering. I doubt Ben will be smart enough to taper, but then again, with his stint as the head of the central bank drawing to a close, he may yet give us a surprise.

At this time, it’s all about maximizing your opportunities in the stock market while the easy money is flowing in. In other words, follow Dow theory and ride the ticker tape higher.

Even long-time perennial bear David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff appears to be conforming to the mass populous. In an interview with CNBC, Rosenberg seemed the most bullish I have ever seen him towards the stock market over the past decade, when he was constantly telling us stocks were set to fall.

In the interview, Rosenberg went as far as to suggest a stock weighting of just over 50%. (Source: Navarro, B.J., “Why a top market bear is turning bullish,” CNBC, October 22, 2013.) His top areas for growth include industrials, technology, and large-cap exporters.

“There are some opportunities in the stock market,” Rosenberg commented. (Source: Ibid.)

So here we are, chasing the S&P 500 higher breaking record after record.

However, we will likely see a retrenchment should the rapid rise continue unabated, as an overextension of the market is problematic.

So I’d offer investors the same advice I offered to my friend: for now, ride the gains, but be sure to take some profits off the table, especially following surges in a stock that appear to be overdone. The case of Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ/NFLX) last Tuesday is a prime example.

This article Is Sitting on the Fence the Best Investment Strategy Right Now? was originally published at Investment Contrarians

 

 

What Caterpillar’s Big Drop in Earnings Means for the General Stock Market

by Sasha Cekerevac, BA

With the S&P 500 hovering around its all-time highs, I think it’s quite interesting to read some of the latest corporate earnings reports and get a sense of what’s really happening in the global economy.

One of the most international companies within the S&P 500 is Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE/CAT). The firm recently released its third-quarter 2013 corporate earnings report, in which the firm poured some cold water on expectations. Revenue during the quarter was down 18% year-over-year, and corporate earnings were down 44% year-over-year. (Source: Caterpillar Inc., October 23, 2013.)

That’s not even the worst part. The company also brought down guidance for both revenue and corporate earnings for the foreseeable future.

In its corporate earnings release, Caterpillar cites several issues that it’s worried about, including uncertainty regarding U.S. fiscal and monetary policy, the health of economic regions globally (including the eurozone and China), and a lack of demand from customers.

Because revenue and corporate earnings growth is questionable, the company is taking the only smart action it can—reducing its own cost base. Obviously, no company can force a customer to buy their product, but it can keep its operations as lean as possible. To that end, the firm has cut 13,000 jobs globally over the past year, reduced pay and incentives, and initiated the “implementation of general austerity measures across the company.”

Considering Caterpillar is a large firm within the S&P 500 and it has its fingers on the pulse of the global economy, do any of these comments give you hope or confidence that either the domestic or international economies are about to surge upward in growth? Not to me, it doesn’t.

This is where I raise serious questions about the strength and health of the S&P 500. Caterpillar is one of the largest international companies, a component of the S&P 500, and would not be issuing such a weak forward guidance regarding potential for corporate earnings growth unless management was truly concerned about the future.

            Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

 

I think that the chart above, which places the price of Caterpillar against the price of the S&P 500 (black line), is very interesting. From late 2006 until early 2008, the S&P 500 moved far ahead of the price of Caterpillar. Then, there was a convergence and both the S&P 500 and Caterpillar literally moved lockstep until the middle of 2010, when Caterpillar outperformed.

From 2010 until mid-2012, Caterpillar continued to diverge from the S&P 500, primarily due to the strong corporate earnings gained from selling equipment to mining companies. Currently, the S&P 500 has continued moving higher, while Caterpillar has stalled.

Generally speaking, markets tend to overshoot, moving from oversold into overbought territory. After reading the outlook for corporate earnings and revenue given by company management, it’s hard to logically believe that Caterpillar’s stock price will accelerate.

If that’s the case, is it more likely that the S&P 500 will decline in order to revert to the mean? In my opinion, if a company that has extensive operations around the world is telling me that it’s extremely cautious about the outlook, I find it hard to recommend investors put new money into the S&P 500 at such lofty levels.

In fact, I think many of these concerns are legitimate, and you will see more companies having difficulty increasing revenue and corporate earnings going forward. While the market is being fueled by cheap money from central banks, at some point, corporate earnings will matter.

Similar to a balloon, it takes quite a bit of work to keep pumping up the numbers, but it deflates very quickly.

To help protect your portfolio, advanced investors might consider using options, such as buying puts, which move up in value when the market or stock declines. Another possibility is buying an inverse exchange-traded fund (ETF) like the ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (NYSEArca/SDS). A note on some of these inverse ETFs: they are great for the short-term, but not well suited to long-term holdings, as they can erode in value and not mimic the exact inverse relationship between the underlying asset and the ETF price.

This article What Caterpillar’s Big Drop in Earnings Means for the General Stock Market was originally published at Investment Contrarians

 

 

Earnings Leadership Emerging in These Transport Stocks

By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm. For Profit Confidential

As more and more companies report, it’s apparent that quite a few are beating Wall Street consensus (usually either on revenues or earnings, rather than both), and it’s happening in industries where you want to see leadership.

What Wall Street consensus actually becomes is typically a well-managed dance between sell-side analysts and a company’s chief financial officer. Consensus estimates generally don’t mean very much in the way of real economic growth, which makes it all the more significant when you do see real growth.

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) has been a hot stock over the last four years, and the last 12 months especially.

The company handedly beat Wall Street consensus, revealing a solid upturn in its airline business. The stock has gone up considerably but is not expensively priced, given current earnings. The company pays a dividend and is highly likely to get upgraded after such a strong quarter.

Total revenues including passenger, freight, and mail rose 22% during the third quarter of 2013 to $1.56 billion.

Along with this growth, the company was able to keep a handle on expenses with total operating costs rising only eight percent to $1.09 billion (aircraft maintenance costs dropped four percent to $54.0 million). This boosted total operating income 75% to $470 million. GAAP net income rose substantially to $289 million, or $4.08 per diluted share, way up from $163 million, or $2.27 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2012.

Alaska Air Group purchased 1.45 million of its own shares this year for $83.0 million. The company has been paying down debt and holds the number-one spot in the U.S. Department of Transportation list of on-time performance.

It was a great quarter for the company, with a record earnings performance. This stock, in my view, is poised for more near-term gains and could move considerably higher as the company expects solid business conditions going into next year.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

The position’s been in consolidation since May. It’s a stock market leader and a meaningful component of the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

This index, which I view to be an important leading indicator, recently broke through the 7,000 level, which is another all-time record high and a major accomplishment. (See “Dow Jones Transports Showing Life Again; Will the Stock Market Follow?”)

Even though Alaska Air Group isn’t expensively priced on the stock market, with so many transportation stocks trading right near their highs, any good financial reports are like confirmation earnings, helping to justify the recent run-up.

So while growing companies like Alaska Air Group can still see their share prices advance, I’m still mostly a fan of considering higher dividend paying stocks for new buyers. I want a good degree of safety (and income) from a company, especially in a stock market trading at an all-time high on what is mostly very lackluster financial growth.

 

 

Investment Strategies for Those Bearish on Unraveling Oil Prices

By George Leong, B.Comm. For Profit Confidential

Hooray, gasoline prices at the pumps have declined to their lowest levels this year! Better yet, they’re looking to head even lower, as oil prices begin to unravel below $100.00 per barrel.

The level of oil reserves jumped by 5.2 million barrels for the week ended October 18, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). There are some 379.8 million barrels of oil in our reserves, and that doesn’t include those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

With the rise in reserves and lower demand due to the recent government impasse, the country is importing only 7.7 million barrels per day versus the four-week average of 8.0 million, according to the EIA. (Source: “Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending October 18,” Energy Information Administration web site, last accessed October 25, 2013.)

Today, the United States is less dependent on foreign oil than at any time in its recent history. The country is producing more domestic oil specifically from the shale oil in North Dakota and Montana. (Read “Why You Shouldn’t Be Worried About Surging Oil Prices.”).

The EIA says North America is now the biggest producer of usable shale oil in the world, and it’s only going to get bigger as new technologies surface that can extract even harder to get oil. In 2012, shale gas represented 39% of total natural gas production in 2012 in the United States, according to the EIA. Canada was second at 15%.

In my view, the rapid development of shale oil will continue to lessen the country’s dependence on OPEC oil, and this is good for both the economy and geopolitical side.

This is why the oil prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, which is produced domestically, has continued to decline and is currently much lower than Brent crude oil at around $109.00 per barrel.

Take a look at the chart below comparing the oil prices of WTI (dark green line) versus Brent (red candlesticks).

In 2008, the oil prices gap between the two crudes was small. But since then, the spread between the two has widened, and this will likely continue as the domestic oil production rises and lowers WTI oil prices.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Also add in the tar sands oil flowing in from Canada, and we could see domestic oil prices decline even more. And then there’s also the energy created by wind and water, along with the major move for green energy usage, which will inevitably lessen the demand for oil, driving oil prices even lower.

In fact, if the U.S. continues to produce more oil and if the country allows the transport of oil from Canada along the Keystone line, we will probably see a declining need for OPEC oil.

In the end, there could be a time when gasoline oil prices decline much lower as we move forward.

With this in mind, you could look to play the bearish side of oil prices via the use of bearish exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that profit as oil prices decline, like PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short ETN (NYSEArca/SZO). For more aggressive traders, there’s PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN (NYSEArca/DTO); however, the risk is high with these ETFs, so I’d advise that only traders consider this option.