Three Strong Stocks for Lean Times

By for Daily Gains Letter

Strong Stocks for Lean TimesOn the surface, the S&P 500 third-quarter earnings season is looking pretty good. The S&P 500 is up 25.4% year-to-date and is up 32% year-over-year. So far so good!

By the end of the first week of November, of the 446 companies on the S&P 500 that reported third-quarter results, 73% said they beat their earnings projections. All is well on Wall Street and Main Street! Numbers don’t lie! (Source: “Earnings Insight,” FactSet web site, November 8, 2013.)

Or do they? That number is pretty solid, at least until you factor in a record 83% of all S&P 500 companies revised their third-quarter earnings guidance lower. It’s a little easier to clear a hurdle when you significantly lower the bar. But sadly, not even that was enough for some S&P 500 companies.

What about revenues? Roughly half (52%) were able to beat revenue projections. The percentage of S&P 500 companies that beat revenue estimates is above the fourth-quarter average of 48%—but again, everything is relative. On the other hand, third-quarter sales are below the 59% average recorded over the previous four years.

What do these numbers mean? That a large percentage of S&P 500 companies are reporting better-than-expected earnings on less-than-stellar revenue. That’s a pretty tough equation to figure out, unless you toss in cost-cutting measures and share repurchase programs.

It’s going to be difficult for S&P 500 companies to continue to wow investors with artificially high earnings if sales remain stagnant. The writing is on the wall.

Of the 85 S&P 500 companies that have issued earnings-per-share (EPS) guidance for the fourth quarter, 73—an eye-watering 86%—have issued negative EPS guidance. Again, it’s all relative; the five-year average of S&P 500 companies issuing negative fourth-quarter earnings is just 63%. That’s a huge discrepancy by anyone’s standards.

And 2014 isn’t looking any rosier. The best way to describe U.S. economic growth in 2014 is “tepid.” According to some economists, the U.S. should have been able to achieve close to, or even above, 2.5%–3.0%; however, it’s been stuck below two percent and is expected to stay there for much of 2014. (Source: “Lukewarm Economic Recovery Expected to Continue in 2014, Says IU Kelley School of Business Forecast,” Newswire.com, November 6, 2013.)

These third-quarter results, fourth-quarter projections, and 2014 forecasts should be a wake-up call for investors, not to avoid the stock markets, but rather, to ignore the white noise surrounding propped-up earnings.

While neither exhaustive nor bulletproof, here are a few fundamentally strong companies that have been reporting good revenue growth over the last five years.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. (NASDAQ/GMCR) has reported five-year sales growth near 40% and is up 44% year-to-date. The company announced that third-quarter revenue increased 11% year-over-year, while third-quarter earnings were up 65% at $0.76 per share.

Deckers Outdoor Corporation’s (NASDAQ/DECK) five-year sales average is just 16%, and the company is currently trading up 83% year-to-date.

Meanwhile, iGATE Corporation (NASDAQ/IGTE) has reported five-year sales growth near 30% and is up 104% year-to-date. iGATE said that third-quarter revenue increased by 8.2% year-over-year, while earnings climbed 11.1% to $0.30 per share. (Source: “iGATE Reports Strong Third Quarter,” iGATE web site, October 10, 2013.)

Sustained earnings growth can only come on the heels of strong sales. In this economy, that’s a tough order; unemployment is up, wages are stagnant, and debt levels are high. But with a little due diligence, it is possible to find solid companies bucking the weak sales growth trend.

 

http://www.dailygainsletter.com/investment-strategy/three-strong-stocks-for-lean-times/2115/

 

 

“Uptick” in Asian Demand as Gold Hits 1-Week Low, Flirts with 3-Year Low in Sterling

London Gold Market Report

from Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Tues 19 Nov 08:40 EST

WHOLESALE QUOTES for gold bounced from 1-week lows beneath $1270 per ounce Tuesday morning in London, turning higher as Asian and European stock markets failed to extend Monday’s rise to new all-time highs in US equities.

UK investors wanting to buy gold saw it dip overnight within £15 per ounce of end-June’s three-year low at £775.

Euro gold also rose from 1-week lows hit overnight as the single currency edged back against the Dollar despite better-than-expected ZEW sentiment data from Germany.

 “Physical bids were absent on the break lower,” says one Asian dealer.

But “there’s been a slight uptick in demand,” counters today’s commodity note from Standard Bank’s analysts.

 Not as strong as in June, July or August, says the note, the rise in Asian buying “is certainly stronger than a week ago” following Monday’s 1.5% drop.

 Chinese premiums to London prices rose today above $4 per ounce on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, even as Yuan prices shed 1% by the close of business.

 However, “We maintain that physical demand alone cannot push gold substantially higher,” writes Standard Bank’s Walter de Wet, “[not] while monetary policy, in especially the US, is normalising.”

 US Fed policy will drive 2014 gold prices, according to separate analysis from TD Securities’ Bart Melek and Citigroup analyst Edward L.Morse.

 “With macroeconomic news perhaps bringing mixed fortunes for gold,” adds Jonathan Butler at Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi, “the overall bearish trend could well continue.”

 Western investor selling on Monday saw a fresh 57-month low in the volume of gold bullion needed to back shares in the SPDR Gold Trust (ticker: GLD).

 The world’s largest gold ETF shed 1.2 tonnes to cut its holdings below 865 tonnes, a level last seen when the Fed’s quantitative easing program was beginning, in February 2009.

 “It’s important not to remove support,” said New York Fed president William Dudley last night in a speech, “especially when the recovery is fragile and the tools available to monetary policy, should the economy falter, are limited given that short-term interest rates areat zero.”

 But Philadelphia Fed president Charles Plosser, a long-time critic of the Fed’s quantitative easing policy, meantime repeated his call for the US central bank to announce a total sum for QE, tapering its monthly money-creation and bond buying to end purchases when that level is reached.

 “We cannot continue to play this bond-buying game by ear,” Plosser told an audience at the Risk Management Association on Monday.

 “[We] risk the Fed’s credibility while creating lingering uncertainty about the course of monetary policy.”

 Silver today tracked but extended the move in gold, rallying from a new 3-month low overnight at $20.24 per ounce to reach $20.44 by Tuesday’s Fix in London, set at the lowest price since 9 August.

 New gold imports to India, the world’s No.1 consumer but overtaken by China in 2013 thanks to aggressive anti-gold rules from government, were meantime delayed according to dealers, as logistics were focused on exporting metal.

 “We have to understand,” Reuters quotes a private bank dealer as gold also rallied from 1-week lows in the Rupee, “that it will be slow process of consignments for both exports as well as domestic consumption.”

 India’s government is currently seeks to clarify and enact a strict 80:20 rule for new gold imports, imposed in the summer and setting a 20% re-export minimum on all quantities of gold landed.

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online

 

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can fully allocated bullion already vaulted in your choice of London, New York, Singapore, Toronto or Zurich for just 0.5% commission.

 

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

 

 

 

Take Out Stock Buybacks and Corporate Earnings Growth Negative?

By Michael Lombardi, MBA

The results are in…

Thus far, 460 companies on the S&P 500 have reported their corporate earnings for the third quarter of 2013. The average increase in earnings per share for these companies in the third quarter compared to the same quarter of last year was 3.5%. (Source: FactSet, November 8, 2013.)

My bet is that if you take out the record number of stock buyback programs the S&P 500 companies have announced this year, earnings for the third quarter of 2013 were flat. (I have my research staff working on these numbers, and I will be able to quantify this for my readers in the next few days.)

Yes, per-share earnings of the S&P 500 (before stock buybacks) are flat year-over-year, but the S&P 500 is up 30% over the same period. How can that make sense?

Well, S&P 500 corporate earnings are not even the most disturbing part…

Only a little more than half of the S&P 500 companies (52% to be exact) were able to beat their revenues estimates—a trend that has become common over the past few quarters, where per-share earnings rise but revenues remain flat.

A few of the biggest names on key stock indices have actually reported a decline in revenue. For the three months ended on September 30, News Corporation (NASDAQ/NWSA) reported a three-percent decline in its revenue from the same period a year ago, with revenues falling to $2.07 billion compared to $2.13 billion in the same quarter in 2012. (Source: News Corporation, November 11, 2013.)

And, of course, we have companies continuing to buy back their stock to boost per-share earnings. Take Xerox Corporation (NYSE/XRX), for example. This S&P 500 company just announced it was adding another billion dollars to its share buyback program as it reported corporate earnings in the fourth quarter will now be in the $0.24-$0.26 per-share range, compared to its previous estimate of $0.28-$0.30 per share. (Source: Reuters, November 13, 2013.)

To make matters worse, 73 of the S&P 500 companies have issued negative earnings guidance for the fourth quarter, while only 12 have issued a positive outlook.

The bottom line is S&P 500 companies in key stock indices are missing on their revenues, while their per-share earnings are propped up by stock buybacks. I remain skeptical of the performance of key stock indices like the S&P 500, as their weak per-share earnings growth is being achieved via artificial measures. The fundamentals of good, honest, old-fashioned revenue and earnings growth are clearly missing.

With that said, irrationality prevails in the stock market these days and those who have a similar opinion to mine are rare. My fundamental data backing me up are saying this stock market has gotten way ahead of itself…the risks are piling up each passing day.

Michael’s Personal Notes:

The direction of prices in the housing market has historically been dependent on the direction of mortgage interest rates. If mortgage rates start to increase, it makes homes less affordable for those who want to buy. The math is simple: the higher the mortgage interest rate, the higher the mortgage payment is going to be for the home owner and the more difficult it becomes to keep up with payments—something we learned in the housing market crash of 2007.

Mortgage interest rates are rising, and I believe the U.S. housing market will suffer as a result. Of course, interest rates are nowhere close to what they were in the 1980s, but they are up significantly this year from their lows. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate tracked by Freddie Mac stood at 4.19% this past October. In the same period a year ago, the rate was sitting at 3.38%. (Source: Freddie Mac web site, last accessed November 12, 2013.)

The effects of demand for housing given higher interest rates can be seen in the chart below. The number of new homes sold in the U.S. housing market has been declining since the beginning of the year.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

In early 2013, the annual rate of new homes sold in the U.S. housing market was close to 460,000 units. This number came in at just 421,000 units in August, down eight percent.

The weakness in the housing market can be seen in the statistics being released by new home builders. For example, D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE/DHI), a large U.S. homebuilder, said that in the fourth quarter of its fiscal year 2013 (which ended on September 30) the cancellation rate (that’s the rate of home buyers canceling their purchase contracts) stood at 31%. (Source: D.R. Horton, Inc., November 12, 2013.) Last fiscal quarter, the company’s cancellation rate stood at 24%, and in the second fiscal quarter, it was 19%! The number of people walking away from deals at DR Horton is skyrocketing, and if we checked the rates of other homebuilders, I’m sure we’d see the same trend.

Despite the occasional bounce here and there that comes from this overheated stock market, homebuilder stocks have been declining in price since May of this year. They are telling us something is up with the U.S. housing market, and it’s not good.

What He Said:

“We will wish Greenspan never brought rates down so low as to entice so many consumers to have such big mortgages.” Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, April 27, 2004. Michael first started warning about the negative repercussions of Greenspan’s low interest rate policy when the Fed first dropped interest rates to one percent in 2004.

This article Take Out Stock Buybacks and Corporate Earnings Growth Negative? is originally publish at Profitconfidential

 

 

Turkey maintain rates, scraps 1-month repo auctions

By CentralBankNews.info
    Turkey’s central bank kept its policy rates steady but scrapped its one-month repurchase auctions to limit the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation and the volatility of short term money market rates.
    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), which has tightened policy since May to protect the lira and curtail inflation, also said this move, which would strengthen the bank’s “cautious stance,” would result in interbank money market rates of around 7.75 percent.
    The central bank also repeated that it expects inflation to hover above its target for some time due to the exchange rate volatility in recent months and it would maintain a “cautious monetary policy” until inflation is in line with the bank’s target.
    Turkey’s inflation rate fell to 7.71 percent in October, the third month in a row of declining inflation from a year-high of 8.88 percent in July while the exchange rate of Turkey’s lira strengthened in the last week following a sharp depreciation from May through August.
    In its latest inflation report, the CBRT revised upwards its estimate for inflation this year to 6.8 percent from a previous forecast of 6.2 percent and forecast 2014 inflation of 5.3 percent, up from a previous 5.0 percent. The bank maintained its medium-term 5.0 percent inflation target.

    The central bank left its benchmark one-week repo rate at 4.5 percent,  the overnight lending rate at 7.75 percent and the borrowing rate at 3.5 percent. While leaving the one-week repo rate steady since May, the CBRT has raised the overnight lending rate, the ceiling in its interest corridor, most recently by 50 basis points in August.
    The central bank said domestic demand and exports had continued to grow at a moderate pace and it expects loan growth rates to decline to “more reasonable levels” due to the bank’s cautious stance, recent macro prudential measures and weak capital flows.
    “Accordingly, a moderate decline in the current account deficit excluding gold trade is expected to continue,” the CBRT said, repeating its statement from earlier months.
    Turkey’s current account deficit rose to US$ 3.28 billion in September from $2.43 billion in August, but was sharply below a 2013-high of $8.0 billion in April.
    Turkey’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 2.1 percent in the second quarter from the first for annual growth of 4.4 percent, up from 2.9 percent.
   The lira fell sharply in May and August, hitting a low of 2.07 to the U.S. dollar on Sept. 6 but has risen in the last week, trading at 2.02 earlier today, partly due to the recent rate cut by the European Central Bank and continued asset purchases by the U.S. Federal Reserve. But the lira is still 11 percent lower than at the start of the year.
   The central bank’s governor expects a lira exchange rate of 1.92 to the dollar by the end of the year.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

Euro Trades Flat; ZEW Rises for a Fourth Month

By HY Markets Forex Blog

The euro traded flat against the US dollar on Tuesday, following Germany’s upbeat economic sentiment which climbed to its highest since October 2009.

The single European currency traded around $1.35 following ZEW data, trading flat at $1.3499. The euro gained an estimated 1% against the US dollar over the previous week. The pair is expected to hold immediate resistance at the $1.35 level. Market participants are focusing on the anticipating Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting minutes which are expected to be released on Wednesday.

The US dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of six of its major peers, retreated more than 0.70% after the Fed Chairperson nominee Janet Yellen said she would support the central bank’s quantitative easing (QE) for an extended period until the US economy is stronger. The index edged 0.13% lower, standing at 80.717 points.

“I believe that supporting the recovery today is the surest path to returning to a more normal approach to monetary policy,” Yellen commented.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) from the October 29-30 meeting are expected to be released on Wednesday and could drive the markets this week.

ZEW Data

The economic sentiment among German investors and analysts improved for the fourth month in a row in November. The ZEW economic sentiment, which evaluates the economic developments for the six months ahead, rose to 54.6 in November, exceeding analysts’ forecast of 54.0 and up from the previous month’s reading of 52.8.

The Current Situation Indicator stood at 28.7 in November, below analysts’ forecast of 30.8 and October’s reading of 29.7

 

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Aussie Slightly Rises Against Greenback; Fed-Meeting in Focus

By HY Markets Forex Blog

The Aussie  slightly rose against the greenback on Tuesday, trading near a two-week high around $0.9390 while the greenback continues to drop and  investors speculate about how long the Federal Reserve will keep its monthly bond-buying program at its current pace.

The Australian dollar edged 0.22% higher against its US peer, standing at $0.9397 as of 6:59am GMT.

RBA

Australia’s central bank held its benchmark rate at record-low of 2.5% earlier this month as the country’s economy remains weak. According to minutes from the bank, the bank may cut its rate even further if necessary. The minutes stated that the local currency remained high and that a lower currency would help the economy balance its growth.

“The exchange rate had appreciated somewhat over the past three months and the fall in mining investment was expected to be larger than previously expected,” the bank report stated.

A drop in the Aussie would help lighten some weight from the tradable sector and promote local production.  A monetary policy from overseas nations, especially the US, would make the aussie dollar more attractive to traders. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has had an influence on the Australian dollar, as the US central bank injects $85 billion into the US economy monthly until the US economy is stronger.

Fed-Tapering Speculation

Market participants continue to speculate on if the Federal Reserve (Fed) would begin to taper its monthly bond-buying program at its next meeting, scheduled for December 17-18.

Last week, a string of data’s released revealed mix signals as the upbeat non-payrolls climbed 204,000 higher in October while the jobless claims figures remained high.

On Thursday, Fed Chairperson nominee Janet Yellen said she would support the central bank’s monetary policy for an extended period until the US economy is stronger. Yellen commented on inflation and said the unemployment rate remains high and hinted that the Fed will not begin to scale-back on the quantitative easing program which has been supporting the world’s largest economy.

 

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With New Fed Chair Unlikely to Taper, How Does Your Portfolio Profit?

By for Investment Contrarians

How Does Your Portfolio ProfitWell, Yellen has shown her cards; we now know the hand she’s playing. The Federal Reserve will stay status quo. In testimony relating to her nomination and expected approval as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, Yellen didn’t hold back, stating the low interest-rate environment allows the central bank to employ its loose monetary policy to drive the economy and not fear inflation.

As Yellen stated, “I believe that supporting the recovery today is the surest path to returning to a more normal approach to monetary policy.” (Source: Bull, A. and Spicer, J., “Yellen says stronger job growth a Fed imperative,” Reuters, November 12, 2013.)

Sounds just like good ol’ Ben Bernanke, doesn’t she? But then that’s what everyone expected from Yellen, who is known as a near-replica of Bernanke and his views towards the economy and the use of monetary policy.

Look, folks, the easy money from the Federal Reserve will likely continue for the foreseeable future. If Bernanke doesn’t decide to begin tapering in his last Federal Reserve meeting in December, it will be up to Yellen to bear this burden, and it appears she may drag it out. Perhaps Bernanke was hoping to begin the tapering process before the end of his second term, but due to a weak jobs picture, it’s not quite an option.

If I was a betting man, I’d put my money on Yellen maybe holding off until later in the first quarter of 2014 to begin tapering. Now, she may begin with a small amount in January, but that all depends on the jobs market in November and December, as she wants jobs growth.

The expectation of continued easy money will help support stocks in the meantime until the economy can deliver stronger results. Given this, the stock market will likely rise in the New Year, so you should make sure you are invested. Of course, this is unless consumer spending tanks during the holiday shopping season. If sales are soft, we could see a buying opportunity should the stock market pull back, so have some cash available for buying. Yet if the retail sales are better than expected, we could see stocks jump in December and into January.

Continued tapering by the Federal Reserve will also likely pressure the greenback going forward. If this happens, we could see some buying in gold and silver, which means there may be a trading opportunity emerging.

The reality is that despite the trillions of debt purchased by the Federal Reserve, the economic renewal across the country continues to be fragile and vulnerable to weakness.

In my view, Yellen will need to think about the overall ineffectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing and realize that something else must be done, other than printing money and pumping it into the economy.

Meanwhile, you can rest assured that there will be money to make in the stock market, so look for any correction to accumulate positions. And, of course, be sure to thank the Federal Reserve.

 

 

With Stocks at Record Heights, What Opportunities Remain for Still Greater Returns?

By George Leong, B.Comm.

More gains ahead—or at least I’m sensing the stock market has more room to advance, especially with the bullish investor sentiment that has characterized the majority of the year continuing to hold.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to advance to record heights last Wednesday and again on Thursday. The near-term trend is pointing higher. The S&P 500 will likely break 1,800 prior to the year-end, unless consumer spending tanks.

The stock market even appears to have discounted in some tapering in December or January. Traders realize the tapering is coming and they’ve come to terms with that—as long as it’s slow and the economy delivers stronger and steady growth. A slight rise in long-term rates and the 10-year bond yield is not going to hurt the stock market that much.

The rise in the Dow Jones industrials continues to be confirmed by an associated rise in the Dow Jones Transportation Average, as reflected on the chart below. Both the industrials (red candlesticks) and transportation stocks (green line) are trending higher, and that means more gains ahead.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Fighting the trend is fruitless at this point. The breakout appears to be holding, as indicated by the blue oval on the chart above. Now we could see a correction down to around 14,700, but this would be a buying opportunity, as I sense the stock market will continue to edge higher. (Read “Vulnerable Key Stock Index May Be Signaling Upcoming Buying Opportunity.”)

As we move toward year-end and into 2014, I expect the stock market to advance higher. So make sure you are invested for more gains and have cash available for a possible buying opportunity.

A look at the S&P 500 in the chart below also shows a clear breakout at the top multiyear resistance level. The breakout may be false, due to the lack of active participation, as shown by the declining volume (lower-right of chart). But so far, it has held up pretty well, contrary to its overbought condition.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

The stock market simply doesn’t want to give in at this point.

As long as the Federal Reserve continues to pump money into the economy, the stock market will likely reach higher, as shown by the below chart comparing the M2 money supply to the S&P 500 (green line).

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

So at this time, everything is pointing higher. The stock market will likely continue to rise, so you need to be in equities to ride the wave higher. If you want more of a risk-managed strategy, play the potential stock market rise using call options on the S&P 500 and the Dow. This way, you have a leveraged trade that could return big if stocks move higher.

This article With Stocks at Record Heights, What Opportunities Remain for Still Greater Returns?  is originally publish at Profitconfidential

 

 

These Two Proven Wealth Creators Should Be at Top of Investors’ Wish List

By Mitchell Clark, B.Comm.

Being a buyer in this stock market is increasingly difficult as the main indices continue to push new highs and a lot of companies are fully priced.

While there are lots of corporations whose outlooks are improving going into 2014, expectations for earnings growth combined with dividends offer little in the way of value. That’s why a major stock market correction would be so healthy and helpful for those who wish to be invested in equities.

The Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) is a blue chip company that’s proven to be an excellent long-term wealth creator for shareholders. The stock’s trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently around 27 and its forward P/E ratio is approximately 21.

The stock just broke the $65.00-per-share level after trading around $53.00 at the beginning of this year and $45.00 at the beginning of 2012. That’s a 44% gain in less than two years without including dividends.

Then there is NIKE, Inc. (NKE), another strong but mature brand that keeps hitting new record-highs on the stock market.

The company’s latest quarterly sales revealed an eight-percent gain to $6.97 billion, while net earnings grew a whopping 38% to $780 million. The company gave a rosy outlook for the next few years and its share price reflects this. About this time last month, the stock was trading around $70.00 a share. Now it’s right close to $80.00.

An institutional investor is paid to play the stock market, and while considering earnings growth potential, valuation, and general stock market conditions, a fund will often buy a stock just because it is going up. The quarterly window dressing of an equity portfolio accentuates the stock market’s top performers. Along with countless other names, Colgate-Palmolive and NIKE are prime examples. (See “Proven Wealth Creator Delivers Again; Earnings, Sales Growth Surge.”)

Even though it seems so unrealistic to see many blue chip, dividend paying stocks pushing new highs, I think they can keep on going right into 2014, given current information.

The Federal Reserve is the ruler of capital markets and extreme accommodation remains policy. With this backdrop, institutional investors can still drive the share prices of growing blue chips higher, simply because there is nowhere else to go. There is still an appetite for “safer” names that pay dividends and have reliable earnings visibility.

Of course, traders can chase stock market momentum; investors don’t need to. But attractive investment opportunities are diminishing, and investment risk for the brand-name blue chips is going up commensurately with their share prices.

Now is a great time for making a list—a wish list, that is—of some of the stock market’s best performers and dividend payers in anticipation of a much better entry point. These should be the names you’d love to own (or own more of), if only prices were more reasonable.

This article These Two Proven Wealth Creators Should Be at Top of Investors’ Wish List is originally publish at Profitconfidential

 

Understanding High-Grade Lump Graphite

Source: J. Alec Gimurtu of The Gold Report (11/18/13)

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/understanding-high-grade-lump-graphite

Four graphite ore samples are placed on a conference room table. Straight from the earth, which one can be used to write on a piece of paper? Answer: the lump graphite sample. In this interview with The Gold Report, Paul Ogilvie, CEO of the newly formed Saint Jean Carbon, explains the distinctive advantages of lump graphite from a mining and marketing perspective and describes his plan to create a profitable company from an uncommon form of high-grade graphite deposit. Read how the company is educating investors on this highest-grade form of graphite while restarting world-class mines using modern technology and an experienced business team.

MANAGEMENT Q&A: VIEW FROM THE TOP

The Gold Report: Saint Jean Carbon Inc. (SJL:TSX.V) is unique in focusing exclusively on “lump graphite.” What is lump graphite and what does it mean to Saint Jean Carbon?

Paul Ogilvie: At Saint Jean Carbon, our goal has always been to develop that most elusive, high-grade form of graphite known as “lump graphite.” Since 2006, my team and I have worked to attain that goal by focusing on the two best-known areas in the world for commercial lump graphite production—Sri Lanka and southwestern Québec.

Chemically, all graphite is the same—it’s all carbon. From a structure perspective flake and lump are very similar in that they have ordered crystalline makeup. The structure of amorphous graphite reflects its name in that it’s much of a jumbled crystalline arrangement. The real differentiation stems from the deposit that produces the ore. The most common graphite deposit is disseminated flake graphite. Disseminated graphite flakes are size minus 35 to plus 50 screen size. Amorphous graphite, which is very fine graphite, is typically associated with carbonates or other impurities. Amorphous carbon is very small, entirely minus 100 screen size.

In contrast, lump graphite is basically formed as a solid, nearly pure mass. One way to see this is in the typical ore grades in a graphite deposit. Flake graphite ore typically grades 2—3% Cg (total carbon in graphite form) but can range up to 10—12% Cg. Amorphous graphite deposits might even be as high as 12–17% Cg. On the other hand, lump graphite grades at least 89% Cg and sometimes 99% pure graphite.

TGR: Does the high grade of lump graphite deposits present challenges from a mining point of view?

PO: Lump graphite is actually easier to mine. The best way to think about it is to first consider the mass of rock that needs to be mined and processed in a deposit of 4%, 5% or even 10% Cg grade. Let’s say this mass is the size of the room you’re in right now. You’ve got to crush, grind and float-process that entire mass simply to extract from 2% to 10% finished material. Now, think about the room as being a solid block of ore with a 90% Cg grade of lump graphite. The amount of material handled to produce a unit of product is dramatically different. Lump graphite is the only graphite that you can mine, put on a truck and sell with very little primary processing.

In fact, that’s how it used to be done in southwestern Québec and Sri Lanka in the 1920s—they mined it and shipped directly to the end users. Even the lower grades or “waste” that the old timers left behind at Saint Jean’s mines was of higher grade than the final product we see from new flake graphite mines. In the 1920s, the cutoff was in the 40–50% Cg range and that’s because in those days, they were only interested in taking the stuff that was 90% pure. They’d actually go right to the vein, take out the 90% Cg material and use it in that raw state.

Today, we instead use a lower cutoff to maximize the graphite produced from our deposit. We estimate that it’s more efficient to use a cutoff between in 30–40% Cg in order to maximize the economic return.

TGR: Can you describe your processing methods?

PO: The first step in processing any type of graphite ore is crushing. Whether your material is more than 90% pure or run-of-mill at 4–5% Cg, the first step is to crush, followed by sizing and then floatation processing to make a product that meets a specific customer’s requirement. The process works well for all lump graphite ores.

TGR: Is there anything else that is unique about lump graphite processing?

PO: Another significant advantage of lump graphite is that milling can be done offsite versus at the mine location. This dramatically reduces the environmental impact of mining. The ore comes from the mine and is transported to an industrial park. One benefit of this approach is that the non-graphite material removed from the ore is used for industrial purposes like road-building aggregates. There are no tailings, impoundments or waste ponds created in the processing of our ore.

Furthermore, processing the ore in a centralized industrial facility reduces infrastructure investment. The net result is that a lump graphite mine is similar to an old-fashioned gravel pit—a little blasting, some material handling and that’s about it. The environmental impact and the future environmental legacy are very minor compared to hardrock mining.

TGR: Are your lump graphite deposits surface or underground mining?

PO: Most of the successful mines are no deeper than a typical open pit. Our concession in Sri Lanka has had many mines in the past, something like 53 or 54, though most were not big operations. Some of these were two-man operations. In that case, they’re simply digging out the vein. Today, we have better methods, with open pit being much more effective than artisanal hand digging. With a properly planned open pit, in some cases there could be 75 or 85 veins open for working at a time, which is both safer and more efficient for moving material around the site.

TGR: Some references describe extensive underground workings in Sri Lanka’s graphite mines.

PO: There is documentation that some mines in Sri Lanka follow veins for thousands of meters, but that may be just below surface or it may wind its way down to 100m. Compared to a gold or platinum mine, that’s not very deep. In Québec, lump graphite has really only ever been surface mining.

TGR: You have mentioned both Sri Lanka and Québec. Are those the most well-known lump graphite deposits in the world?

PO: The best-documented lump graphite deposits in the world are in southwestern Québec and Sri Lanka. Other parts of the world are known for flake and/or amorphous, but Sri Lanka and southwestern Quebec are most widely recognized for their lump deposit. In Québec, the book of graphite occurrences from 1907 notes the Walker region, where our Walker and Wallingford mines are located. On the other hand, all graphite industry insiders know that more than 95% of the world’s lump graphite supply comes from Sri Lanka.

The notable feature of Sri Lanka’s graphite mining has been the small scale of most of the operations. Sri Lanka has a couple hundred of these little mines operating and selling to India and to China. This network was the original inspiration for Saint Jean Carbon. With properties in Sri Lanka and southwestern Québec, we set out to build a modern graphite producer based on the geological and human resources of the best graphite districts in the world. There is a lot of efficiency to be gained by running numerous small operations under a single corporation.

TGR: Which property is your flagship?

PO: The company splits its resources evenly between the Québec and Sri Lankan properties. For 2014, we are putting half of our financial and human resources on the Walker project and the other half on our six best targets in Sri Lanka. We can’t find a quantifiable reason to give one region preference over the other. From a branding and corporate identity point of view, Saint Jean Carbon is clearly a Québec graphite mining company, but we find equally strong opportunities in Sri Lanka.

TGR: Can you give us some context for the recent news releases concerning the Walker project?

PO: The recent sampling program at Walker summarized the current resource. We verified historical data, performed site inspections and did extensive mapping. Next, we sampled and put the samples through traditional crush, grind and float processing. We then analyzed the material flow, adjusted retention time, and monitored the resulting material. That’s what it takes to confirm the quality of the deposit. The results from the last set of tests from Walker were very detailed and showed our retention times, our leaching processes and so on. We do it this way so we can educate investors and make sure they understand that they’re dealing with a real graphite company. We are demonstrating to investors that we are a company that understands what it takes to make a quality product that a customer will pay for.

TGR: What is your timeline for restarting production at Walker?

PO: We estimate that we should be in production at Walker in approximately 16 months, though it could be as soon as 12 months. Development depends on multiple factors, but because our water permits are simple and because we won’t be doing any on-site milling, the overall timeline could be relatively short.

The engineering team at Saint Jean Carbon is working on a release that will detail our next four months of work, including completing a historical NI 43-101, airborne work and drilling work. We will even be channeling to do bulk sampling. Toward the end of that timeline, we’re going to start looking for an operations center. Both the Walker and Wallingford projects will be managed from the same location to achieve an economy of scale.

TGR: What is the situation in Sri Lanka?

PO: We have our exploration and development permits in place in Sri Lanka, but there is still some work to be done. A level of paperwork and permitting will need to be completed. Just like any other country, Sri Lanka has some environmental concerns. It will take time to hire, to set up the holding companies, and to fund the business entities. Additionally, we’ll need to set up a bagging mill to prep the ore for shipment. A realistic target for reaching the production stage should be 12 months.

TGR: How’s the business and political climate for mining in Sri Lanka?

PO: We don’t have any indications of trouble. Other than graphite and some other minor minerals, there isn’t a lot of mining in the country. The Ministry of Mining and President Mahinda Rajapaksa have all stood up and been very clear that they’re looking to grow the country’s mining industry. In the past, Sri Lanka had a long-running civil war, but everything has been back to normal for a number of years now. Resource development has benefitted the people of the county, including several successful hydroelectric plants. The country has a lot of pro-growth economic policies and the capital, Colombo, is geared toward international commerce. Saint Jean Carbon is serious about operating our facilities in Sri Lanka. The country has excellent shipping infrastructure and lots of educated people. The total cost of development for a facility including land, improvements and labor is very competitive.

TGR: Sri Lanka probably has cost advantage on labor in particular.

PO: We are still quantifying the exact labor cost structure. Another positive factor is that Sri Lanka employs the English legal system, so there is a similar approach to corporate culture. From what we’ve seen so far and heard from trusted and experienced legal and business contacts, Sri Lanka is a good place for a mining company to do business.

TGR: What are your short-term goals for Saint Jean Carbon?

PO: In the industrial mineral space, the most important success factor isn’t the quantity of minerals produced. The most important success factors are the quality of the material and the relationship with the customer. These crucial factors are at the core of Saint Jean Carbon’s business model.

Beyond that, we have four clearly defined goals—revenue, distinction, profit and execution. First, we will generate revenue in 2014. Second, from an investment and a marketing standpoint, we will show the distinct advantages and differentiation of our lump graphite projects over all the other graphite projects in the world. Third, we will reach profitability in the shortest practical time. The last goal involves our ability to execute, which is based on what we believe will play out in the micro-cap sector over the next few years. We expect a difficult market for revenue-starved junior miners for the next couple of years and we will address that by targeting near-term, low-capex projects that will rapidly lead to revenue.

Revenue could come directly out of the ground by our own production, or from acquisitions or joint ventures. In selling our production, our sales and marketing teams are aggressively pursuing new customers. We’re working with a high-profile graphite company to review possible joint ventures and they’re helping us find companies to potentially purchase revenue streams.

Of these goals, the 2014 revenue is the most important in the short-term. Clarifying the distinctive advantages of lump graphite and creating a profitable company will follow.

TGR: It has been great to talk to you and learn more about the graphite market.

PO: Thank you.

Paul Ogilvie, the CEO of Saint Jean Carbon, brings a wealth of knowledge to the graphite sector. He has been extensively involved in several start-ups, including emerging graphite companies, for over 33 years. He most recently served as chief executive officer and director for both Mega Graphite Inc. and Canada Carbon. Prior to this, in 2007 Ogilvie led a private investment group in the redevelopment and turnaround of Industrial Minerals Inc., now known as Northern Graphite Corporation (NGC:TSX.V), a junior mining company that is presently developing one of the largest large-flake natural graphite deposits in the world. Ogilvie has direct experience in the development of technologies related to the production of graphite ores and the operation of global graphite markets for base and high purity graphite products.

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DISCLOSURE:

1) J. Alec Gimurtu conducted this interview for The Gold Report and provides services to The Gold Report as an independent contractor. He or his family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.

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