Monetary Policy Week in Review – Nov 25-29, 2013: 4 central banks cut while BOE rolls back housing support

By CentralBankNews.info
    Last week four central banks, among them Thailand, cut policy rates, maintaining the downward trend in global rates while Brazil raised its rate and the Bank of England (BOE) rolled back its support for the U.K. housing sector in the latest sign that the world’s sixth-largest economy is healing.
    Financial markets initially saw the BOE’s move as a sign of monetary tightening but its governor, Mark Carney, quickly poured cold water on that view, saying the shift to neutral in the bank’s support of home lending would in fact allow its policy rate to stay low for longer.
    The BOE’s decision “that additional stimulus for lending to households is no longer required” is significant in four ways:
    First, it comes two weeks after the BOE upgraded its view of the UK economy in its November inflation report with the implication that interest rates may be raised in 2015 rather than 2016.
    Second, it illustrates the new paradigm in central banking in which macro-prudential measures aimed at specific sectors, in this case housing, are used to maintain financial stability while the “really blunt tool” of policy rates (to quote Carney) is geared to the overall need of the economy.
    Third, it is the latest example of how authorities worldwide are taking action to avoid another housing bubble, whether policy measures are maximum loan-to-value ratios, changes to the risk weights for home loans or the outright prohibition of certain types of housing loans, for example loans for second or third houses.
    Fourth, it shows that central banks have to use forward guidance in conjunction with any change to policies, whether it’s macro-prudential measures or the size of quantitative easing, to ensure that financial markets don’t get ahead of themselves and price-in higher interest rates.

    Meanwhile, last week 12 central banks decided on their monetary stance with four banks (Thailand, Angola, Hungary and Albania) cutting rates, Brazil raising its rate and seven maintaining rates (Israel, Ghana, Fiji, Tunisia, Zambia, Colombia and Trinidad & Tobago).
     Thailand’s second rate cut of the year came as a surprise, partly because many emerging market central banks have been tightening policy to prevent capital outflows and currency instability in connection with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s likely tapering of asset purchases in the near future.
    But the Bank of Thailand, which has now cut rates by 50 basis points this year, is becoming more concerned about weak growth with domestic political unrest now starting to deter tourists and thus dent growth further.
    Hungary’s rate cut, its 16th in a row to 3.20 percent, was expected and the bank signaled further cuts, but there are signs that the easing cycle since August last year is coming to an end.
    Not only did the central bank governor in July point to 3.0 or 3.5 percent as a low point for rates, but Hungary’s forint currency is now being hit by worries that rates may end up being cut too much, exposing the currency to a sell-off when the Fed starts reducing asset purchases.
    In Brazil, the central bank raised its policy rate for the sixth time in a row to 10.0 percent, but omitted its usual reference to the policy decision helping ensure that the trend of lower inflation persists into next year.
    Though this was hardly a clear and transparent sign of the central bank’s thinking about the direction of rates, financial markets and economists saw it as signal that the pace of rate rises were coming to an end, probably after another hike in January.

    Through the first 48 weeks of this year, central banks have cut their policy rates 109 times, or 19.3 percent, of the 564 policy decisions taken by the 90 central banks followed by Central Bank News.
    This is marginally up from 19.0 percent the previous week, but down from 25.3 percent after the first half, reflecting the recent rate rises by some of the major emerging market central banks.
     Policy rates have been raised 26 times this year, or 4.6 percent of this year’s 564 policy decisions, slightly down from 4.7 percent after the first half of the year.
   
     LAST WEEK’S (WEEK 48) MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS:

COUNTRYMSCI     NEW RATE           OLD RATE         1 YEAR AGO
ISRAELDM1.00%1.00%2.00%
ANGOLA9.25%9.75%10.25%
HUNGARYEM3.20%3.40%6.00%
THAILANDEM2.25%2.50%2.75%
GHANA16.00%16.00%15.00%
BRAZILEM10.00%9.50%7.25%
ALBANIA3.25%3.50%4.00%
FIJI0.50%0.50%0.50%
TUNISIAFM4.00%4.00%3.75%
ZAMBIA9.75%9.75%9.25%
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO2.75%2.75%2.75%
COLOMBIAEM3.25%3.25%4.50%

    This week (week 49) nine central banks are scheduled to hold policy meetings, including Australia, Morocco, Canada, Poland, Norway, the United Kingdom, the European Central Bank, Egypt and Mexico.

COUNTRYMSCI             DATE CURRENT  RATE        1 YEAR AGO
AUSTRALIADM3-Dec2.50%3.00%
MOROCCOEM3-Dec3.00%3.00%
CANADADM4-Dec1.00%1.00%
POLANDEM4-Dec2.50%4.25%
NORWAYDM5-Dec1.50%1.50%
UNITED KINGDOMDM5-Dec0.50%0.50%
EUROSYSTEMDM5-Dec0.25%0.75%
EGYPTEM5-Dec8.75%9.25%
MEXICOEM6-Dec3.50%4.50%

    www.CentralBankNews.info

On your Mark, Get Set, GO! Volatility Start

Article by Investazor.com

on-your-mark-01.12.2013The race of economic publications will start from the first day of the week. As we know, the beginning of the month will be dedicated to the monetary policy meetings and also to a very important series of macroeconomic releases. These will most likely raise the forex market volatility and that it is why it important to be very attentive.

Calendar

Date

Currency

Forecast

Previous

SunDec 1

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

51.2

51.4

NZD

Overseas Trade Index q/q

3.00%

4.90%

MonDec 2

AUD

AIG Manufacturing Index

53.2

AUD

MI Inflation Gauge m/m

0.10%

JPY

Capital Spending q/y

3.10%

0.00%

AUD

Building Approvals m/m

-4.30%

14.40%

AUD

Company Operating Profits q/q

-0.80%

CNY

HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI

50.5

50.4

JPY

BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

AUD

Commodity Prices y/y

-1.00%

EUR

Spanish Manufacturing PMI

51.3

50.9

CHF

SVME PMI

55.1

54.2

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

51.4

50.7

EUR

Final Manufacturing PMI

51.5

51.5

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

56.5

56

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

USD

Final Manufacturing PMI

54.3

54.3

USD

Construction Spending m/m

0.50%

0.60%

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

55.2

56.4

USD

Construction Spending m/m

0.40%

USD

ISM Manufacturing Prices

55

55.5

TueDec 3

JPY

Monetary Base y/y

47.20%

45.80%

NZD

ANZ Commodity Prices m/m

1.30%

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

0.80%

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

0.40%

0.80%

AUD

Current Account

-11.1B

-9.4B

CNY

Non-Manufacturing PMI

56.3

JPY

Average Cash Earnings y/y

-0.20%

AUD

Cash Rate

2.50%

2.50%

AUD

RBA Rate Statement

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change

44.3K

87.0K

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

0.80%

0.70%

GBP

Construction PMI

59.3

59.4

EUR

PPI m/m

-0.10%

0.10%

USD

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

43.2

41.4

USD

Total Vehicle Sales

15.8M

15.2M

WedDec 4

AUD

AIG Services Index

47.9

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index y/y

-0.50%

AUD

GDP q/q

0.70%

0.60%

EUR

Spanish Services PMI

50.7

49.6

EUR

Italian Services PMI

51.2

50.5

EUR

Final Services PMI

50.9

50.9

ALL

OPEC Meetings

GBP

Services PMI

62.1

62.5

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

0.20%

-0.60%

EUR

Revised GDP q/q

0.10%

0.10%

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

174K

130K

CAD

Trade Balance

-0.7B

-0.4B

USD

Trade Balance

-40.3B

-41.8B

CAD

BOC Rate Statement

CAD

Overnight Rate

1.00%

1.00%

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

55.4

55.4

USD

New Home Sales

432K

USD

New Home Sales

427K

421K

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

3.0M

USD

Beige Book

ThuDec 5

AUD

Trade Balance

-0.33B

-0.28B

JPY

10-y Bond Auction

0.61|3.7

GBP

Autumn Forecast Statement

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

375B

375B

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

GBP

MPC Rate Statement

USD

Challenger Job Cuts y/y

-4.20%

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.25%

0.25%

CAD

Building Permits m/m

2.40%

1.70%

EUR

ECB Press Conference

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

3.10%

2.80%

USD

Unemployment Claims

322K

316K

USD

Prelim GDP Price Index q/q

1.90%

1.90%

CAD

Ivey PMI

60.2

62.8

USD

Factory Orders m/m

-0.70%

1.70%

USD

Natural Gas Storage

-13B

FriDec 6

AUD

AIG Construction Index

54.4

JPY

Leading Indicators

109.90%

109.20%

EUR

French Gov Budget Balance

-80.8B

EUR

French Trade Balance

-5.1B

-5.8B

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

434.7B

CHF

CPI m/m

-0.10%

-0.10%

GBP

Consumer Inflation Expectations

3.20%

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

-0.40%

3.30%

CAD

Employment Change

7.6K

13.2K

CAD

Unemployment Rate

7.00%

6.90%

CAD

Labor Productivity q/q

0.50%

0.50%

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

184K

204K

USD

Unemployment Rate

7.20%

7.30%

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

0.20%

0.10%

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.10%

0.10%

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.40%

0.20%

USD

Personal Income m/m

0.30%

0.50%

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

76.2

75.1

USD

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

2.90%

USD

FOMC Member Evans Speaks

USD

Consumer Credit m/m

14.6B

13.7B

SatDec 7

JPY

BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

 

On Monday Kuroda and Ben Bernanke are scheduled to speak, Australia will release the Building Approvals, UK the Manufacturing PMI and US the ISM Manufacturing. Tuesday Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the Cash Rate which will be followed by a statement.

Wednesday the eyes of the investors will be on the Australian GDP; Services PMI for UK; Trade Balance and Overnight rate for Canada; Trade Balance, ISM Non-Manufacturing, New Home Sales and maybe the most important the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls for the United States.

Thursday will be a very heavy day. Bank of England will announce their monetary policy with the Asset Purchases and the Official Bank Rate followed by a statement. The ECB will have the monetary policy followed by the press conference and the United States will release the Prelim GDP for the past quarter and the Unemployment Claims.

But the race is not over without Friday, when Canada will publish some labor market data and the United States will release the Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls and not to forget about the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.

The post On your Mark, Get Set, GO! Volatility Start appeared first on investazor.com.

USDCHF: Remains Bearish Despite Marginal Lower Close.

USDCHF – Although closing marginally lower the past week, its broader downside bias remains intact. The risk is for a retake of the 0.9000 level to occur. A violation of here will turn attention to its Oct 2013 low at the 0.8889 level. Further down, support lies at the 0.8750 level followed by the 0.8700 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, to resume its recovery triggered off the 0.8889 level now on hold, the pair will have to take out the 0.9249 level, a tough call at its present price levels. This if seen will aim at the 0.9454 level with a cut through here paving the way for a push towards the 0.9496 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term despite its marginal lower close the past week.

Article by fxtechstrategy.com

 

 

Trinidad & Tobago holds rate, economy still recovering

By CentralBankNews.info
    Trinidad and Tobago’s central bank held its benchmark repo rate steady at 2.75 percent, saying partial data on the non-energy sector in the third quarter indicates a mixed performance, suggesting “that the economy still remains on its path of slow but steady recovery.”
    The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, which cut its rate by 25 basis points in 2012, said planned maintenance by two major natural gas products and shutdowns in the downstream industry in September led to a contraction of just over 4 percent, year-on-year, in energy production in the third quarter. However, with most of the maintenance work completed, output will return to more normal levels in 2014.
    Trinidad & Tobago’s Gross Domestic Product contracted by an annual 1.15 percent in the second quarter, down from an expansion of 0.66 percent in the first quarter. In 2012 the country’s economy expanding by 0.2 percent after contracting by 2.6 percent in 2011. The IMF forecasts growth of 1.6 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2014.

    The central bank said headline inflation in the 12 months to October decelerated to 2.7 percent from 3.0 percent in September, mainly due to a slowdown in core inflation that was 1.9 percent in October, down from 2.9 percent.
    “However, the recent heavy rains and resulting floods in Trinidad may lead to some up-tick in food inflation in the coming months,” the bank said.
     Despite a narrowing of the interest rate differential between longer term Trinidad & Tobago and U.S. Treasury bonds, the central bank said there was not evidence of disruptive portfolio flows. The differential fell to minus 29 basis points in November from minus 20 points in October, the bank said.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

 

23andme and The Witch Hunt over Your DNA

By MoneyMorning.com.au

I wrote earlier in the year in The Daily Reckoning about a new territory. It was based around the premise that Google might one day start their own country. They’d just carve off a piece of the world to make their own.

For arguments sake let’s call it Googleece.

Google CEO Larry Page said:

But maybe we should set aside a small part of the world, like going to Burning Man [festival] for example…That’s an environment where people can try out different things, but not everybody has to go. And I think that’s a great thing too. I think as technologists we should have some ‘safe places’ where we can try out some new things and figure out what’s the effect on society what’s the effect on people without having to deploy it kind of into the normal world.

And I think I know of another CEO that might be joining Larry. The world of Googleece might just find themselves willing cohabitants.

That would be Anne Wojcicki and her company 23andme.com.

Anne is the also the founder of 23andme. She also just so happens to be married to Google’s other co-founder, Sergey Brin (although reports have it they’re now separated).

Anyway Anne started 23andme to get into personal genomics and biotechnology. She believed genetic testing would have huge benefits for the world. As such she built 23andme to bring cost effective DNA analysis to the masses.

In fact 23andme is the same company that a few of Port Phillip Publishing’s editors used to have our own DNA tested a few months ago.

23andme is one of the most influential companies this decade. 23andme is also a part of a select group of pioneering companies.

These companies are at the pinnacle of an entire medical revolution. This new revolution is bigger and more exciting than any other era in history.

However, when you push the boundaries of science…you’ll meet some opposition. And in the case of 23andme, that’s exactly what they’re now dealing with.

In the last couple of weeks 23andme has copped the full brunt of US lawmakers. In particular the wrath of the FDA. But this isn’t the first time 23andme has been in the firing line.

The US congress has been after 23andme for years. Their hatred even goes back to a congressional hearing from 2010. In this hearing the House Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations grilled 23andme and others.

This hearing seemed more like a witch-hunt than a congressional hearing.

A blog post from FDABlog.org, explained some contrasting facts from this hearing. One in particular was about a misleading statement from the FDA.

During the hearing Rep. Parker Griffith of Alabama said:

I don’t think the companies here, if they disappeared tomorrow, would impact the scientific community…this is all bogus. This is nothing more than the snake-oil salesman revisited again in a high-tech way.

Dr. Jeffrey Shuren and FDA official said about the companies,

From the information we know, they are not doing their own research on the genetic profiles…they are interpreting the studies that have been performed by others.

The FDABlog continues on,

Just two days earlier, Dr. Shuren and other senior FDA officials sat ten feet from the podium as Anne Wojcicki, founder of personal genomics leader 23andMe, boomed into a microphone. "A unique and significant part of 23andMe’s site is the research component," said Wojcicki. "In 2009, we launched our first disease community in Parkinson’s disease. We enrolled over 2,000 individuals in the first three weeks alone. We have over 4,000 participants today… we are running hundreds of genome-wide association studies on a nightly basis. We have been able to replicate many of the major genetic findings and plan to publish more soon."

Note: Shuren still holds a senior position at the FDA.

Furthermore this latest attempt to bring 23andme to its knees seems to be quite coincidental. Coincidental in the fact just a few weeks ago 23and me was granted a new patent. This patent brings the subject of eugenics back into the public eye.

The FDA request of 23andme stinks of political influence. They’ve outright told them to stop selling their DNA kits.

Whether it’s politically driven or driven by motives of self-interest I’m not sure but it’s something I’ll dig further into.

DNA analysis is a part of the bigger picture of improving the public health. It’s valuable information about your own genetic make-up. And with that you can make positive changes to your lifestyle.

The way Congress and the FDA are making 23andme out to be charlatans is irresponsible at best.

 I’m all for safe and effective DNA testing. And from my  experience, and knowledge of the technology 23andme uses, it’s reckless to say they’re ‘Snake Oil Salesmen’.

Watch this space. For now 23andme has been apologetic to the FDA, no doubt through fear of wider reaching consequences. But no doubt behind closed doors they too are seething at the witch-hunt that seems to be on again.

If Page and Google open invitations to their new land of decreased regulation and increased innovation…I’m sure Wojcicki and 23andme will be asking for their golden ticket.

Sam Volkering+
Technology Analyst, Revolutionary Tech Investor

Join Money Morning on Google+


By MoneyMorning.com.au

The Technology Sector: Determine Fad from Fantasy

By MoneyMorning.com.au

There’s your average long term investor, and then there’s Alfred Feld.

Mr Feld recently died at 98 after – get this – eighty years with investment bank Goldman Sachs.

The Australian tells us he began as an office boy in 1933. Later he chose stocks and investments for clients, what today we would call ‘wealth management’.

Just off the top of our head, in financial terms that means he lived and invested through the Great Depression, the 1937 stock market decline and the Second World War. Then came the post-war baby and stock market boom and later the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement.

In the 1970′s was the OPEC oil crisis and economic stagflation. Then came the twenty year gold bear market, the 1987 Wall Street collapse, the technology bubble of the 1990′s, the housing bubble, and the subprime collapse and panic of 2008.

Not to mention the rise and fall of countless companies and industries. That kind of puts the next quarterly update into a bit of perspective.

The only one constant for Feld was the same for all of us… 

The Nasdaq Rises Again

And that’s change. And right now the one thing Feld admitted he never really got – technology – is driving big change.

In case you missed it, the Nasdaq went over 4000 points for the first time in thirteen years this week. The Nasdaq is America’s second biggest stock exchange. It’s largely seen as a proxy for the technology industry and growth. Big technology stocks like Microsoft, Apple, Facebook and Amazon are listed on it.

You’ve no doubt heard of the Nasdaq, famous to this day thanks to one of the biggest, most insane stock market bubbles in history.

That was in the late 90s, when it went from 1000 points in 1995 to over 5000 in the year 2000. Many companies had unbelievably high valuations because it was a ‘new era’. This was despite the fact that some companies didn’t have any revenue, let alone profit. 

A lot of those companies went bust and investors lost millions. Investors have been wary of technology ‘stories’ ever since. Now, there’s no point getting too carried away from what’s happening on the Nasdaq. It’s taken 13 years to get back to where it is now.

But the way events are going, no investor can afford to miss what’s happening in the technology sector. That’s because it impacts on so many different industries.

Take gaming company Aristocrat Leisure [ASX: ALL], for example. The Australian Financial Review reported this week that,

‘For the first time in its history, Aristocrat Leisure will next year release digital versions of its new poker machine titles to personal mobile devices before they hit casino floors…It also comes as Aristocrat’s social casino platform, Product Madness, is growing at such a rate it looks likely to be split out of the company’s fledgling “online” reporting line at next year’s full-year results.’ 

You can only use Product Madness in your Facebook account. According to the AFR, Aristocrat will release the stand alone Android and IOS apps for mobile devices next year, as well as distributing digital poker machines to online casinos in the US.

Aristocrat is defending its position in the industry here in Australia from Ainsworth Game Technology [ASX: AGI]. Ainsworth is up over 100% for the year and taking market share off Aristocrat in the traditional gambling space. No doubt Ainsworth has digital plans on the boil, though we aren’t aware of anything yet.

We know plenty of people object to gambling companies as a matter of principle, but we’re using Aristocrat here simply as an illustrative example of how ‘disruptive tech’ can change entire industries and even influence other sectors.

If people are gambling online, maybe they don’t need to go to the pub, or won’t as often. That affects the hospitality industry, and beverage sales. If it’s easier to gamble, perhaps more people will, and consumer spending will shift. Discretionary retailers might suffer.

Aussie companies who previously couldn’t compete in the hyper competitive markets of the US and Macau might find they can win market share. 

There’s no ‘safe’ business model. Technology means you have to adapt or die. 

How Excited Will Investors Get? 

Gayle Bryant reported on some renewed interest in the technology sector in the Australian Financial Review on Wednesday.

He quoted Bell Direct chief executive Arnie Selvarajah as saying,

While momentum has been created by listings such as those by Twitter and Facebook, there have also been standout performers, which tend to be the companies that are disrupting business models.

He then cites a company called nearmap, which is up 1400% over the past 12 months.

Interestingly, Bryant quotes Platinum Asset Management chief exec Kerr Neilson (one of Australia’s best investors). Neilson comes across as a bit miffed about the lack of excitement from investors toward technology in general. The hard part, says Neilson, is to ‘discern fad and fantasy from long-term winners‘. 

One way is to check out Revolutionary Tech Investor.

You could do worse than focus on one area they do: medical tech, set to grow as the western world ages and the baby boomers go into their later years.

Revolutionary Tech Investor editors Sam Volkering and Kris Sayce have their eyes squarely on the canary in the coalmine: Japan.

Here’s a graphic of Japan’s demographic profile from a recent RTI update: 


Source: United States Census Bureau
Click to enlarge

Japanese society is old and getting older. To really ram the point home, we recall reading some time ago that adult nappies outsell baby ones in Japan. There’s a massive market for healthcare.

The RTI editors say that means tech-savvy investors should look into regenerative medicine. The Japanese government has just moved aggressively on this issue.

Here’s the breakthrough news, as reported by the Japan Times:

‘The Upper House passed a bill Wednesday aimed at ensuring the safety of regenerative medicine and another to revise the pharmaceutical affairs law to promote safe and swift treatment using induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells and other stem cells…

‘The revised pharmaceutical affairs law defines medical products containing stem cells as regenerative medicine products. It allows the government to approve such products conditionally even when their effects are not verified, if their safety is confirmed in clinical trials.’

According to Kris, this is a big deal. He argues that in effect, the new laws in Japan mean that stem cell companies don’t have to provide proof their treatment works, only that it doesn’t cause harm. The stem cell companies can ‘fast track’ their treatment straight to market.

The good news is there are some Aussie and ASX-listed companies flying the flag in this space. You can check who they are by clicking here. Stay tuned.

Callum Newman+
Editor, Money Weekend

Special Report: The ‘Wonder Weld’ That Could Triple Your Money

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

Colombia holds rate, confirms Q3, 2013 growth forecasts

By CentralBankNews.info
    Colombia’s central bank held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.25 percent, as widely expected, and confirmed its forecast for economic growth this year of 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent and that inflation should return to the bank’s target range as a shock to food supply is diluted.
    The Central Bank of Colombia, which has held rates steady since April after cutting by a combined 100 basis points in the first three months of the year, also confirmed its estimate for third quarter growth of between 3.8 percent and 5.4 percent.
    In the second quarter, Colombia’s Gross Domestic Product rose by 2.2 percent from the first quarter for annual growth of 4.2 percent, up from 2.8 percent. In 2012 Colombia’s economy expanded by 4.0 percent.
    “Interest rates remain at levels that stimulate aggregate spending in the economy,” the central bank said.
    In its quarterly report from earlier this month, the central bank forecast 2014 growth of between 3 percent and 5 percent and third quarter growth of 3.8-4.5 percent, putting 2013 growth within reach of a forecast 4.0 percent despite a weak start to the year.
     The central bank’s board also agreed on an inflation target of 3.0 percent, plus/minus 1 percentage point, for 2014, unchanged from this year.

    In October Colombia’s inflation rate fell to 1.84 percent from 2.27 percent in both September and August due to lower food prices and the bank said one-year inflation expectations fell and are now below 3 percent.
    “To the extend that supply shocks are diluted and aggregate demand continues to be driven by expansionary monetary policy, expectations are expected to converge to the long-term goal,” the bank said.
    Household confidence recovered in October, the bank said, along with improved sales or durable goods and surveys suggest a rise in shipments and manufacturing production. Although growth in total credit slowed last month, it remains higher than the rise in nominal GDP.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

Zambia holds rate, sees December inflation pressures

By CentralBankNews.info
     Zambia’s central bank held its policy rate steady at 9.75 percent, saying an expected increase in inflationary pressures in December are likely to be moderated by the central bank’s tight policy stance.
    “Hence, after weighing the inflationary risks, the Committee decided to sustain the current relatively right monetary monetary policy stance and maintain the Bank of Zambia policy rate at 9.75%,” the central bank said.
    Zambia’s inflation rate rose slightly to 7.0 percent in November from 6.9 percent in October, above the central bank’s 6.0 percent target for the year, but in line with the bank’s expectations.
   The central bank raised its rate by a total of 50 basis points in June and July.
   Inflationary pressures are expected to emanate from the lagged effects of the recent depreciation of the kwacha’s exchange rate coupled with higher seasonal demand for some consumer products as the holiday season approaches and a seasonal increase in the prices of maize grain and mealie meal, the Bank of Zambia said.
    Like many other emerging market currencies, the kwacha fell in late May through early July but then rebounded and rose until the end of October. It then dropped by 5 percent to 5.58 per U.S. dollar on Nov. 10 from late October. Earlier today it was trading at 5.50 to the dollar.
    Last week an official at the central bank said a drop in the kwacha to near its weakest levels in 4-1/2 years was temporary and it was set to rebound.
   Emmanuel Pamu, financial markets director at the central bank told Bloomberg that the kwacha would be in an equilibrium at a rate of 5.30 to 5.40 to the dollar.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

Worst November in 35 Years for Gold as India’s Import Ban Forces Jump in Recycling

London Gold Market Report

from Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Fri 29 Nov 08:45 EST

WHOLESALE London prices for gold pushed higher in quiet trade Friday morning, on course for the largest November drop since 1978 in US Dollar terms.

 Down 5.9% from the last London Fix of October, Dollar gold this morning touched $1249 per ounce.

That would be the lowest monthly finish since June’s 3-year low.

 Global stock markets meantime hit fresh 6-year highs on the MSCI World index, as the Japanese Nikkei closed its strongest November since 2005.

 The Japanese Yen today hit its lowest level in a half-decade to the Euro.

 Gold for Japanese investors rose to 1-week highs Friday morning, cutting November’s drop to 1.9%.

 “Trading has been relatively subdued,” says a European bank dealing desk, pointing to the US Thanksgiving holidays.

 “Some light buying from short-term players,” says a Swiss refiner’s note, again citing “very thin conditions.”

 Tracking Friday’s rally in gold, silver also rose but held $2 per ounce below the end of October, heading for a 9.1% drop in November at $19.93.

 “Physical [gold] demand is solid,” says ANZ Bank’s commodity team in a special report, “but not bullish enough to spark significant short covering [by bearish traders in gold futures].

 “[That’s] reflected in subdued Shanghai Gold Exchange premiums.”

 Trading volumes in Shanghai gold slipped back Friday, pulling the premium above London settlement down to $6 per ounce from the recent peak of $9 hit Thursday.

 ANZ now forecasts 2013 gold imports to China of 1,050 tonnes, topping last year’s record by some 80%.

 “[But] we believe caution is warranted in expecting the growth in Chinese gold demand will be repeated next year,” says the banks’ analysts, stating a “baseline expectation” of a drop in 2014 imports back to 900 tonnes.

 Meantime in former world No.1 gold consumer nation India, where gold prices on the MCX futures market ended the day unchanged near 6-week lows, “People have started coming with recycled gold,” Reuters quotes a gold retailer in the famous Zaveri Bazaar.

 Thanks to the Indian government’s gold import rules effectively shutting legal inflows, “There is no gold available in the market this wedding season,” the retailer, Kumar Jain, goes on.

 So the parents of brides-to-be “have started exchanging their old gold for new, and paying the labor charges,” he adds, forecasting perhaps 400 tonnes of gold recycling this year, compared with more typical levels of 130 tonnes.

 Import duties, the lack of supply and other costs have pushed Indian gold dealers‘ quotes for physical bullion to $130 per ounce above world prices this month.

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online

 

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can fully allocated bullion already vaulted in your choice of London, New York, Singapore, Toronto or Zurich for just 0.5% commission.

 

(c) BullionVault 2013

 

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

 

Discretionary vs. Mechanical Trading: Human Brain vs Trading Technologies

Online trading, especially if you are a day trader or high frequency trader, requires trading technologies that are capable of completing mathematics thousands of times per second.

Especially in day trading operations, trading technologies can play a small or pivotal role, depending on whether the trader uses a discretionary or mechanical trading system.trading technologies

So trading technologies are awesome, but what about human brain performance?

Well, the brain remains, by far, the most powerful tool available to human beings. Studies have found that our brain is capable of 1016 processes per second, which makes it faster than any high frequency trading technologies out there.

However, it does have major limitations.

Think about it. We do not need to have the best technology available to view a simple ADX indicator or a moving average. Add the fact that our memory is more often than not, useless and that sometimes our thinking is subject to cognitive biases and logical fallacies.

Not surprisingly many traders recognize that their brain is their best tool, especially when it comes to analyzing and processing ‘soft’ information – things that are so important in today’s market analysis and trading decisions. However, they also recognize that it can serve as their enemy as well, when those cognitive biases and logical fallacies kick in.

Before we go further let me quickly clarify the terminology that we are using here and explain the difference between cognitive biases and logical fallacies

A logical fallacy is an error in logical argumentation. Examples of logical fallacies are slippery slopes, homonym attacks and circular arguments. On the other hand, a cognitive bias is a genuine deficiency or limitation in our thinking — a flaw in judgment that arises from errors of memory, social attribution and miscalculations.

Logical fallacies are unquestionably a limitation, but they can be clearly identified and managed or limited. Cognitive biases are more of a gray area when it comes to identifying and recognizing them. Psychologists believe that our cognitive biases help us process information more efficiently.

Use the example of  ’soft’ signals from the financial markets that we were talking about earlier; they can be recognized, elaborated upon and interpreted thanks to our cognitive biases.  Technology still cannot replicate this process, no matter what neural networks and other scientists say.

So what? Well, it turns out that our brain is more powerful than any trading technology available to traders nowadays. It is wired in a way that can surely lead to mistakes, but it can also perform extremely efficiently and read “soft” signals like no trading technology can do.

We have the most powerful machine to date, it is free and still many discretionary traders are scared by it and thus, shift to mechanical systems.

To those traders I ask the following question:  In a competitive  environment such as financial markets, do you really want to do give up learning how to master the best ‘technological’ instrument that you own?

I know, becoming a master your mind is a lifelong project. I hope you will come to find that it is worth the effort. You could become a better trader, a better investor and a better person.

 

About the Author

This was a guest post by Robert Main of PropTradingFutures.com