InvestMacro Forex News

By CentralBankNews.info
    Turkey’s central bank maintained its policy stance, keeping its key rates unchanged, saying the current stance was appropriate to contain inflationary risks but “emphasized that any new data or information may lead the Committee to revise its stance.”
    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), which has tightened policy since May to protect its currency and contain inflation, said interbank money market rates would remain close to 7.75 percent while the weighted average cost of funding would be at 6.75 percent or above.
    Turkey’s central bank conducts a slightly unorthodox monetary policy and in November, for example, it dropped the reference to its one-week repo rate as a policy rate and started putting more emphasis on the overnight lending rate, which acts as a ceiling in it interest rate corridor.
    The overnight lending rate was maintained at 7.75 percent while the borrowing rate, the floor in the corridor, was held at 3.5 percent along with the rate of borrowing facilities for primary dealers at 6.75 percent. The one-week repo rate was held at 4.5 percent.
    Turkey’s inflation rate, which has been boosted by a depreciation of its lira since the U.S. Federal Reserve warned it May that it was considering tapering its asset purchases, has declined in recent months and fell further to 7.3 percent in November from 7.71 percent in October.
    “Inflation is expected to fall further in the forthcoming period,” the central bank said, adding that core inflation may hover above the bank’s 5.0 percent target “for some time.”
    In its latest inflation forecast from this month, the central bank revised upward its inflation forecast to 6.8 percent by end-2013 and 5.3 percent end-2014, partly due to exchange rate changes and higher oil price assumptions.
    “The Committee stated that the cautious monetary policy stance should be maintained until the inflation outlook is in line with the medium term targets,” the bank said.
    But the bank also said that domestic demand and exports were continuing to grow at a moderate pace and the “moderate decline in the current account deficit excluding gold trade is expected to continue.”
    Turkey’s Gross Domestic Product rose by 0.9 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter for annual growth of 4.4 percent while the current account narrowed to US$ 2.89 billion in October from $3.37 billion in September.

    www.CentralBankNews.info
 

By CentralBankNews.info
    Hungary’s central bank cut its base rate by 20 basis points to 3.0 percent, its 17th rate cut in a row, and said “further easing of monetary policy may follow, but a reduction in the increment is likely to be warranted in the future” in light of stronger economic growth and a possible rise in financial markets’ view of the risk of investing in the country.
    But the National Bank of Hungary, which has cut rates by 275 basis points this year and 400 points since August 2012, is clearly approaching the end of its easing cycle and aware that cutting rates too much could make international investors nervous and lead to an outflow of capital.
    “A marked and sustained shift in perceptions of the risks associated with the Hungarian economy may influence the room for manoeuvre in monetary policy,” the bank said.
    Hungary, like many other emerging market countries, saw capital flow out and their currencies decline earlier this year when the U.S. Federal Reserve first raised the possibility of a tapering of its asset purchases, and the central bank is concerned this may re-occur once the decision to taper is taken.
    But at this point financial markets appear comfortable investing in Hungarian assets and the central bank said the rate cut was “justified by the low inflation environment, subdued inflationary pressures over the medium term and a degree of spare capacity in the economy.”

    “On the whole, the global financial environment has been supportive in the past quarter. However, sentiment has been volatile, due to uncertainty about the future of unconventional measures used by global central banks, which warranted an even more cautious approach to domestic monetary policy,” the bank said.
    Hungary’s forint has risen about 1.0 percent this month and rose further today on the central bank’s decision to 298.8 to the euro, but is down 2.6 percent since the start of the year, a relatively low fall compared with some other emerging market currencies, such as Indonesia and India’s currencies.
    Hungary’s inflation rate stabilized in November at 0.9 percent, the same as in October, and the central bank expects inflationary pressures to remain muted in the medium term due to weak domestic demand and low international inflation before gradually moving toward the bank’s 3.0 percent target.
    “Looking forward, loose labour market conditions and the adjustment of inflation expectations are likely to lead to moderate wage growth, which in turn may contribute to the maintenance of the low inflation environment,” the bank said.
    Hungary’s economy has been picking up speed in recent months and the central bank said rising exports were likely to play an important role as a source of growth while domestic demand was also expected to strengthen in coming years though household consumption is likely to grow only gradually despite higher incomes.
    “Propensity to save is expected to remain high, reflecting the ongoing reduction in debt built up during the years prior to the crises and the slow improvement in credit conditions,” the bank said.
   Hungary’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 0.9 percent in the third quarter from the second for annual growth of 1.8 percent, the second quarter of positive growth after the economy shrank for five consecutive quarters from the start of 2012 to the second quarter of this year.
    Last month the OECD raised its growth outlook for Hungary to 1.2 percent for 2013 and to 2.0 percent for 2.0 percent. In 2012 the economy shrank by 1.7 percent.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

By CentralBankNews.info
    Serbia’s central bank cut its policy rate by 50 basis points to 9.5 percent, citing below-target inflation, and said monetary policy would be geared towards raising inflation to the bank’s 4.0 percent target.
    Serbia’s inflation rate fell to 1.6 percent in November from 4.9 percent in October, below the Bank of Serbia’s target range of 2.5-5.5 percent around a 4.0 percent midpoint.
    The Bank of Serbia has now cut rates five times since May by a total of 175 basis points.
    “Medium-term inflation is expected to move closer to the target, set at 4% until 2016, and monetary policy measures will be geared towards that end,” the central bank said, adding that inflation expectations had now fallen to a historic low and markets expect inflation to move within the bank’s target range in coming months.
    The bank attributed low inflation to the relative stability of the exchange rate along with sharp disinflation in food prices due to weak domestic demand.
    Serbia’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 0.3 percent in the third quarter from the second for annual growth of 3.2 percent, up sharply from the second quarter’s 0.2 percent growth.
    Last month the central bank cut its 2014 growth forecast to 1.5 percent from a previous 2.5 percent due to the government’s fiscal consolidation plans. Growth this year is forecast at 2 percent.
   
    www.CentralBankNews.info

By CentralBankNews.info
    Sweden’s central bank cut its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent and pushed back any rate rises until early 2015 from late 2014 due to lower-than-expected inflation.
    The Riksbank, which last cut its rate in December 2012, said economic activity was largely as forecast but inflationary pressures were expected to remain much lower than forecast in October and the cut in the repo rate should help boost inflation towards the bank’s 2 percent target by 2015.
    “Slow increases in the repo rate are not expected to begin until the start of 2015,” the Riksbank said, adding that “the risks linked to high household indebtedness remain, but the low inflation rate justifies cutting the repo rate.”
    In October the bank said it first expected to raise the repo rate by the end of 2014, forecasting an average rate of 1.15 percent by the fourth quarter of 2014 and 2.24 percent end-2015. In its new forecast, the central bank forecast an average rate of 0.71 percent in the fourth quarter of next year, 1.88 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 and 2.88 percent in fourth quarter 2016.
    Sweden’s postponement of any rise rise to next year comes less than two weeks after Norway’s central bank delayed any rate rise by a year to the summer of 2015, citing low inflation, low growth and declining house prices.

    Economists were split in their expectations to the Riskbank’s decision today, with roughly half expecting rates to be maintained and the other half expecting a rate cut.

    In its latest forecast, the Riksbank sees Sweden’s consumer price inflation dropping by an average of 0.1 percent this year, down from a forecast of zero inflation in October, then rising by 0.6 percent in 2014, down from a previous forecast of 1.2 percent and then by 2.5 percent in 2015, down from a previous forecast of 2.7 percent.
    Cost pressures in Sweden have been higher than inflation, indicating that “companies have had difficulty in passing on their higher costs through higher prices, which in turn may be due to weak demand,” the Riksbank said.
    Sweden’s inflation rate was 0.1 percent in November, up from minus 0.1 percent in October.
    “Without a more expansionary monetary policy, there is a risk that inflation would not reach 2 percent in the coming years, and there is thus good reason to cut the repo rate by 0.25 percentage points and to adjust the repo-rate path downwards,” the bank said.
    While inflation in Sweden and throughout Europe has been below expectations – triggering a surprise rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) last month – economic growth is largely as expected.
    The Riksbank even raised its forecast for average growth in Sweden’s Gross Domestic Product this year to 0.9 percent from a previous forecast of 0.7 percent. In 2012 Sweden’s economy expanded by 0.9 percent.
    In the third quarter of this year, Sweden’s GDP rose by 0.1 percent after a contraction of 0.1 percent in the second quarter for annual growth of 0.3 percent, down from 0.6 percent annual growth in the second quarter.
   In 2014 Sweden’s economy is forecast to expand by 2.5 percent, slightly down from 2.6 previously forecast, and the accelerate by 3.7 percent in 2015, up from 3.5 percent and 2.8 percent in 2016.
    “The recovery abroad is important to the Swedish economy, which after almost a year of weak growth in now moving towards better times,” the bank said, adding that the labour market has improved along with the confidence of Swedish households and corporate sectors.
    In contrast to policy decisions in recent months, the Riksbank’s board was unanimous in its decision to cut the repo rate.
 
    www.CentralBankNews.info

By Dennis Miller – Miller’s Money

A good friend who recently inherited a few million dollars asked: “Why am I scared to death?” The death that precipitated the inheritance aside, he should have been pleased with his new pile of dough. But managing a lot of money is nerve-racking, especially when it’s your own. Your own sound judgment may evaporate in the face of dollar signs, and trusted advice can be hard to find.

As one approaches retirement, the tremendous responsibility of making your money last can be daunting, as Miller’s Money subscriber Julie G. shared with me. She wrote:

“Recently I’ve been reading voraciously on the subject of protecting assets and money management. I’m soon going to be looking after more money than I have ever been responsible for in my life. I’m looking for specific referrals for wealth managers that share your philosophy.”

Rewind twenty-plus years and you’d find me in a similar frame of mind. I had recently remarried and was responsible for looking after my new mother-in-law’s entire nest egg. (If there’s anything scarier than screwing up your own retirement, it’s screwing up your mother-in-law’s.)

Here’s the good news for Julie: She has made the first correct move by researching qualified professional help. Several loyal subscribers have written with similar requests, and it’s about time I responded.

Duty Owed to Clients

In our February 2013 edition of Miller’s Money Forever, we detailed how to locate and interview a good financial advisor. It starts with understanding the two different levels of responsibility an advisor can owe his clients.

The first is a fiduciary responsibility. Fiduciaries are required to put their client’s interests ahead of their own. They have a duty akin to that of a lawyer to his client or a trustee to the beneficiaries of a trust.

In the financial planning world, a Certified Financial Planner (CFP) falls into this category. You can find a list of CFPs in your area or verify your planner’s certification on the CFP Board website. Associations like the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA) also require their members to act as fiduciaries. In addition, a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC) is subject to this standard; the educational requirements for becoming a ChFC are particularly rigorous.

The suitability standard is a different, lesser level of responsibility. Generally speaking, it applies to stockbrokers and others who sell investment products. They need only recommend investments suitable for their client’s willingness and ability to take on a particular level of risk.

If, for example, a stockbroker subject to the suitability standard advises an 80-year-old widow to invest in a mutual fund containing solid utility stocks, he is in the clear even if the fund charges outrageously high fees. The fund need not be the best option. Even if there are better or lower-cost alternatives available, the stockbroker has committed no foul.

Such advisors usually offer a free portfolio analysis to anyone who walks in the door. They feed some basic facts about you into their company computer and out pops a list of recommended investments. If the advisor is a stockbroker, the list will be flush with mutual funds managed by his employer. If the advisor is an insurance broker, then insurance products are the answer. To be fair, their recommendations are often on target—or at least close to it. Nevertheless, there are likely better and lower-cost options available.

Don’t let big household names draw you off track. Advisors at captive houses—large, well-known brokerage firms that manage their own mutual funds—are only subject to the suitability standard, for the most part. These people are under tremendous pressure to sell their company-sponsored products. These funds might perform well, but be very wary of a one-size-fits-all approach to money management. A good CFP can pick and choose the best investments and ideal allocation balance for you.

So, cut any advisor not subject to the fiduciary standard from your list of prospects. A professional designation requiring a fiduciary duty is a good start, but you should still perform your own due diligence. There are several sites that track broker and advisor improprieties. Here are a few places to check:

• The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)This organization is the same one that administers the Series 7 Exam. Its search tool lets you find out how long an advisor has been registered and if he or she has any history of incidents. It will even tell you whether or not someone has been fired. Once you’ve selected an advisor’s name, make sure to click on the detailed report link which specifies everything from a complete employment history to descriptions of specific damages and incidents.

  You can also look up information about individual firms, such as their assets under management and the size of their average client.

• SEC Investment Advisor Public Disclosure (IAPD)This is another site with much of the same information as the FINRA site.
• North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA)This site has a couple of interesting ways to find out more about offenses in your state. First, you may browse its contact list of state regulators, or you may also view its list of state enforcement websites.

Once you have a list of certified candidates in your area who have managed to keep out of trouble, it’s time to find the real experts. Education and certifications don’t mean much without real world experience. Let the hotshot fresh out of college make youthful mistakes and overcome his learning curve with some other client. Tossing the inexperienced newbies should shorten your list considerably.

Ask Direct Questions & Demand Direct Answers

Ethical, truly independent financial planners will proudly provide us with the information we need. Ask each candidate whether he or she is affiliated with an SEC-approved Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) that is not owned by a large brokerage firm, mutual fund firm or big bank. Ask which legal standard they are held to, and how they are compensated. If there is any potential conflict between how they are compensated and your needs, you need to know about it.

This next one’s important: Ask for a written proposal. Don’t fall for, “How dare you question my credentials?” You have every right to ask. It’s your money.

Hire Overqualified Professionals

The best advisors have more expertise than you might need today. Neither finances nor life are stagnant; you may eventually need help in a new area. Pick the candidate that can grow with you—that includes your advisor and whomever else they consult or work alongside.

A good financial plan is really a comprehensive, life-management plan. Your financial team should know about legal, insurance, tax or financial issues you might not consider or deem relevant to you. Ask about the team of specialists they consult when evaluating investments and long-term client goals.

Be a Fee Vigilante

Your advisor should have a system to monitor and minimize expenses, a topic I covered in Shop Smart to Cut Fees on Retirement Assets. There is no surer way to bleed your portfolio than overpaying in fees.

Right Fit

In my book, Retirement Reboot, I wrote about a friend who hired a top financial planning firm to look after $3 million. He quickly fired the firm. They did a good job on paper, but he had to wait 2-3 days for a return call from his account manager. Apparently, this money manager looked after several billion dollars. No wonder he was treated like an insignificant account.

You want a firm that specializes in accounts like yours. Ask how many clients they have and how your account size compares. My friend’s $3 million account was nothing to balk at, but he was a minnow in a sea of giant game fish.

Ask to see sample portfolios for clients with similar financials goals. Any advisor worth his or her weight should be able and eager to explain the asset allocation in these portfolios.

The right fit will also share your investing philosophy. Like most of our subscribers, I am very concerned about high inflation. I once asked a financial planner about inflation protection and he recommended Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), a strategy with which I completely disagree (you can read why by clicking here). I asked if he had any clients invested in precious metals or foreign currencies, and he said no. He was not a good fit.

When in doubt, trust your instincts and keep looking.

Delegate, But Never Abdicate

This is a Miller mantra: You can delegate some of the responsibility to a qualified professional, but you should never abdicate that responsibility… not to an adult child, not to a world-renowned expert, not to ANYONE. Another fundamental principle: Never invest in anything you do not understand or are uncomfortable with. That rule applies no matter who is handling your money.

If you hire a money manager, think of him or her as a highly skilled employee; you are their part-time employer. It is your job to oversee and manage them. You have every right—an obligation really—to ask questions and give feedback. It is your money.

Julie wrote that she had been reading voraciously about finances. That’s step one. Once you find the firm, do not stop reading and do not stop learning.

Speaking of reading… If you haven’t read the latest edition of Miller’s Money Forever, I urge you to do so today. If you’re not a premium subscriber yet, you can sign up for a trial subscription at no risk to you—and receive a complimentary copy of Retirement Reboot. We’ve introduced a cheat sheet for time-starved investors, and are continuing to expand on our Bulletproof Income strategy. Click here to sign up now.

The EURUSD May Test the 38th Figure Again

The EURUSD was trading mixed yesterday. In the beginning the pair increased to 0.1798, then it returned to support at 1.3742. Today the pair is increasing again and has already tested the level of 1.3774. The overall picture remains the same: the euro may test the 38th figure, its breakout will lead to the year’s highs testing at the level of 1.3832. A loss of support at 1.3709 – a decrease to 1.3618/00. The FOMC decision which is scheduled for tomorrow can change fully the situation.

The GBPUSD Trading Above the 63rd Figure

The GBPUSD kept trying to consolidate above the 63rd figure. In the beginning a rise to 1.6348 attracted the bears and the pair returned to support below the figure. At the moment the pound is directing again to the yesterday’s highs, a rise above which will open the way to the 64th figure. A loss of the current support will worsen GBPUSD prospects and it will fall to 1.6200—1.6173. Today`s consumer price index in Great Britain can influence on dynamics of the pair.

The USDCHF Continues Declining

Yesterday the USDCHF resumed declining and dropped to support at 0.8846. Here demand for the pair appeared that allowed it to recover to 0.8887. This movement did not continue developing and the dollar, having turned under pressure again from the bears, dropped to 0.8859. The overall picture is still negative for the dollar and presumes continuation of a fall in the direction of the 0.8568 level.

The USDJPY Is Unable to Consolidate Above 103.00

It is likely that the USDJPY bulls are tired as after a decline to 102.64 they failed to return the dollar above the 103th figure. Attempts to consolidate above the figure failed that increases risks to resume to support at 102.64. A loss of this level will lead to a decline to 102.15/00. But until the dollar is trading above 101.59, the USDJPY bulls should not hasten to get rid of long positions.

provided by IAFT

By J.W. Jones – OptionsTradingSignals.com

With the last major news item for 2013 less than 48 hours away, I thought I would share some insights as to what the S&P 500 Cash Index (SPX) options were pricing into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement due out Wednesday.

After the news is released and the week ends, it will be time for Santa Claus to come to Wall Street. While most people believe in the Santa Claus rally, what few understand is the bullish undertones that traditionally accompany a triple witching event.

This coming Friday, is a triple expiration. Equity options, index options, and futures contracts will be expiring this Friday. This event is traditionally known as “triple witching” and historically the quarterly expiration event ushers in serious bullishness.

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, “In the 31 years since the creation of equity index futures, the S&P500 has risen 74% of the time during this week. More recently, it has risen in ten of the past 12 years.” The chart shown below was posted on zerohedge.com and was provided by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The chart above clearly demonstrates that the December triple witching event is statistically relevant for higher prices. What many call the “Santa Claus Rally” may have more to do with triple witching than whether Wall Street was naughty or nice.

The data above would demonstrate that unless the Federal Reserve either shocks the market or initiates a tapering of their quantitative easing program, we are likely to see some strong bullish price action in stocks going into the end of the year. Trend following quantitative trading strategies are a great way to automated your trading or investing.

While it can be argued as to whether or not a tapering has been fully priced in, what is of keen interest to me is whether SPX option analysis confirms a bullish disposition for future price action.

I want to be clear, that as an option trader I am constantly looking at probabilities for trade selection. I use a variety of credit spreads to take advantage of higher than normal implied volatility and use the passage of time as an additional profit engine. Additionally I use probabilities to help me select the option strikes that I am going to utilize for trade structures.

Based on the closing prices in the December Monthly (Exp. 12/20/13) S&P 500 Cash Index (SPX) on Monday December 16, 2013 the marketplace is pricing in a fairly tight short-term range. This is to be expected when time to expiration (in this case 4 days) is fairly short in duration. However, when we look at the standard deviation analysis from Monday’s close an interesting narrative is born.

The 1 standard deviation (68% probability) price range in SPX based on Monday’s close is around 1,770 – 1,800. The SPX option market is pricing in that there is a 68% chance that by the close Friday the SPX price will be in that range. However, the 2 standard deviation (90% Probability) price range tells a considerably different story.

The December Monthly SPX options show a 2 standard deviation range between 1,730 – 1,825. There is a 90% probability that at Friday’s close price will be in that range. However, when we look closer something interesting is revealed.

The Monday closing price for the SPX was 1,786.50. I would simply point out that the SPX options marketplace is saying that the risk of a larger move to the downside is more likely. Note that the 2 standard deviation upside price level is roughly 40 points higher than Monday’s closing price.

The 2 standard deviation downside range is more than 55 points lower. The marketplace is clearly pricing in that should a price shock take place, it will be much more devastating if prices move lower on the Federal Reserve’s statement. The price range is shown below on the SPX daily chart.

The fact that the option market is clearly favoring more downside potential does not mean that the marketplace’s reaction will force prices lower. The extra risk premium to the downside exists because the marketplace believes that there is more downside risk potential.

Unfortunately the SPX December monthly option chain cannot tell us much more at this point in time about future price action. However, some analysis provided by Bank of America Merrill Lynch solidifies my expectations that in the immediate short-term more downside is likely. However, a major bottom is likely to form which coincides with the December triple witching event. The chart below is courtesy of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The chart above demonstrates that the target range is somewhere between 1,745 and 1,775. In overnight futures trading on Sunday evening prices fell sharply, but Monday’s action caused prices to regain their footing. The recent lows in the SPX just barely made it into the range highlighted above. My guess is that one more pullback may occur before we see prices start moving higher due to triple witching and seasonality.

However, what is most important for readers to understand is that the risk should the Federal Reserve surprise the marketplace with a more hawkish action could be quite bearish in nature. A tapering announcement or a larger than anticipated tapering could cause the S&P 500 Index to react violently to the downside.

I will be the first to admit I have no idea what is going to happen, but I think hedging longs or taking some profits where available makes sense ahead of the Federal Reserve’s statement. While higher prices are more obvious based on seasonality and the binary triple witching event, a downside move could catch market participants off guard and strong short-term selling could result. Short-term risk is high!

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Happy Trading!

This material should not be considered investment advice. J.W. Jones is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this article or the OptionsTradingSignals.com website be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.

London Gold Market Report

from Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Tues 17 Dec 07:50 EST

YESTERDAY’S rise of $15 per ounce in gold was erased Tuesday morning in Asia and London, as the US Dollar rose and world stock markets held flat overall.

 Trading back at last week’s closing level of $1238 per ounce, gold tracked broader commodity markets, where Brent crude oil retreated to $109 per barrel.

 Gold for UK investors edged up to £761 per ounce as the British Pound fell to 3-week lows following the weakest reading of Consumer Price Inflation in four years at 2.1% per year.

 US inflation data were due with the start of Tuesday’s New York trading, with consensus forecasts for a 3-month high of 1.3% per year.

 Maintaining its inflation target at 2.0%, the Federal Reserve today starts a two-day meeting to decide US monetary policy for the next 6 weeks, including a possible “taper” of $85 billion in monthly asset purchases.

 “The bullion market is likely to continue to mark time ahead of the FOMC statement,” says a note from global bank and London bullion market-maker HSBC.

 “However, post the FOMC meeting, we are more favorable…Speculators still hold significant short positions. The approaching year end may lead to a covering of spec shorts, which is price supportive in our view.”

 ETF trust fund holdings of gold have dropped 40% by value this year to $119 billion, says UK-based Barclays Capital.

 The giant SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold ETF, shed another 1% of its bullion holdings yesterday to reach 818 tonnes, the lowest level since January 2009.

 Losing some 800 tonnes by weight in 2013, a further 100 tonnes of gold ETF holdings would become cash negative for investors who bought during the bull market at a price below $1200, BarCap adds.

“Fed tapering and a general reduction in liquidity are the big game-changers in these markets,” BarCap’s commodities team says. “The risk is for further price downside ahead.”

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can fully allocated bullion already vaulted in your choice of London, New York, Singapore, Toronto or Zurich for just 0.5% commission.

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

By HY Markets Forex Blog

Gold prices rose for the third day as market participants focus on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting which will commence today till tomorrow, with speculations that the central banks would begin to reduce its monthly asset purchasing program.

The yellow metal futures for February advanced 0.10% to $1,245.64 as 2:31pm in Singapore, while silver contracts for March 2012 edged 0.26% higher at $20.155 an ounce at the same time.

Holdings in the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR came in at 818.90 tones on Monday, the lowest since 2009.

The US dollar index, which measures the strength the US dollar against six major currencies, edged 0.05% lower at 80.0370 points.

The yellow metal declined around 26% this year, heading to its first annual drop after 12 consecutive years.

Gold Prices – Federal Reserve Meeting

Investors and market participants are keeping a close eye on the anticipating Federal Reserve two-day meeting, scheduled to begin on Tuesday and conclude on Wednesday. Some analysts are predicting the Fed to push back the cutting of its monthly stimulus till next year, while some are expecting the Fed to announce the tapering of its monthly asset purchasing program

Gold Prices – US Data

In New York, the state’s manufacturing index advanced to 0.98 in December, but was below analysts’ forecast of 5.0, reports from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York confirmed on Monday.

While the industrial production edged 1.1% higher in November month-on-month, slightly higher from the previous month’s record of 0.1% and surpassing analysts’ forecast of 0.6%. Manufacturing climbed 0.6% higher in November, while mining gained 1.7% and utilities rose by 3.9%.

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The post Gold Prices Advances; Fed Meeting in Spotlight appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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By HY Markets Forex Blog

WTI Oil prices dropped on Tuesday, before the release of the US crude inventories report. The spotlight has been on the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting which will begin later in the day, as investors await news and hints as to when and whether the central bank would begin to scale backs its monthly stimulus program.

WTI crude oil for January delivery dropped close to 25 cents to $97.11 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and stood at $97.36 at the time of writing. Brent crude for February settlement shredded as much as 0.2% to $109.15 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark Brent crude was at a premium of $11.69 to WTI.

The US dollar index, which measures the strength the US dollar against six major currencies, edged 0.05% lower at 80.0370 points.

Federal Reserve Meeting

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee will meet for the final time this year for the Fed December meeting scheduled to begin later during the day till Wednesday. The meeting will reveal clues as to when and whether the central bank would begin to taper its monthly asset-purchasing program.

Analysts are expecting tapering to begin following the meeting, due to the improved labour market and the string of positive data which shows the health of the US economy is improving.  While some analysts are predicting the central bank will maintain its stimulus till next year to get more evidence that the US economy’s recovery is stable.

US Inventories

The US crude stockpiles report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to be released on Wednesday, with forecasts of drop of four million barrels of commercial crude inventories in the week ending December 13.  Distillate stockpiles, including heating oil and diesel are expected to show a rise by 240,000 barrels in the last week, analysts predicts a rise of 1.75 million barrels in gasoline inventories in the week ended December 13.

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The post WTI Oil Drops Ahead of US Stockpiles data appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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