InvestMacro Forex News

London Gold Market Report

from Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Thurs 19 Dec 08:25 EST

WHOLESALE London gold sank against all currencies Thursday morning, falling 1.9% vs. the Dollar to hit 6-month lows after initially trading flat overnight despite the US Fed finally reducing its $85 billion per month in asset purchases.

Cutting next month’s quantitative easing of US mortgage and longer-term government bond rates to $75bn, the Fed pointed to “growing underlying strength in the broader economy.”

 US stockmarket indices the S&P500 and the Dow surged to new all-time closing highs, while Treasury bonds fell and spot gold fell through this week’s previous low at $1230.

 Besides the taper, however, the Fed revised its policy on short-term interest rates, saying it will hold the federal funds rate at zero “well past the time” that the US jobless rate falls to 6.5%, its previous line in the sand.

 Overnight in Asia, Japanese shares rose but Chinese stocks fell as the People’s Bank of China broke its own rules and took to Weibo, the equivalent of Twitter, to announce a “short-term liquidity operation” after Shanghai’s interbank lending rate jump above 10%.

 The PBoC usually waits a month before reporting such moves, says the Financial Times.

 “It’s very clear they want to calm down market fears,” the FT quotes ANZ analyst Zhou Hao, noting the previous spike in Chinese interest rates in June, when US Fed chairman Ben Bernanke spoke about possible QE tapering.

 Shanghai gold today fell 0.8% in Yuan but increased its premium over international prices from $6 to $11 per ounce.

 Amongst Western investors, “More sensible minds realise,” says a note from David Govett at brokers Marex, “that on the whole [the Fed news] is not a good move for the precious complex.

 “With further tapering probably to come over the course of next year, the outlook remains muted. However, I don’t subscribe to the theory that it’s all over for the bullion market [and] would be a buyer of dips if we do manage to break below $1200.”

 Bids in London’s wholesale market briefly dropped below that level Thursday morning, hitting a 6-month low of $1199.75 per ounce.

 Priced in Sterling and Euros, wholesale gold bullion fell to its lowest since spring 2010, down 29% and 31% respectively from the start of 2013.

 Silver tracked gold in Dollars, briefly falling below $19.30 per ounce – a “key level” according to technical analysts at one bullion bank.

 Fed tapering “highlights the overall positive sentiment towards the macro economy,” reckons UBS analyst Joni Teves.

 “Equities are in fierce competition with gold for investor dollars, and this year’s trend of rotation away from gold into growth assets is expected to continue into 2014.”

 “This is another sign of increasing normalisation for the world economy,” agrees Matthew Turner at Macquarie Bank. “Gold’s insurance function is less desirable in that environment.”

 “But if the economy is accelerating as people think,” counters Albert Edwards in his latest Global Strategy Weekly for clients of French investment and London bullion bank Societe Generale, “how come Thomson Reuters has just reported the fastest pace of US earnings downgrades on record?

 “If we are set for a profits-driven economic slowdown, then the low rate of core inflation will start to become a key concern. Deflationary forces are in fact stronger than even the latest [official data] suggests.”

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can fully allocated bullion already vaulted in your choice of London, New York, Singapore, Toronto or Zurich for just 0.5% commission.

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

USDCHF fell to a new low in this week and now reversing sharply to the upside. We adjusted the wave count and already have five waves down in wave (c) so pair could continue higher if we consider an ending diagonal on a daily chart where each leg is made by three waves! However it would too soon to turn bullish on USDCHF  as long as 0.9076 level is in place. We need an overlap with this level to invalidate alternate scenario of blue wave (iv) as labeled on the chart.

USDCHF Elliott Wave Analysis 4h

Written by www.ew-forecast.com

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By Moe Zulfiqar for Daily Gains Letter

A friend of mine recently asked if he should invest in Bitcoin. He was astonished with its growth; he said, “I can’t believe it. You could get one Bitcoin for $100.00 not too long ago, and now that looks cheap!”

He asked if there will be growth in the digital currency in the long run, and if he will be able to make money for his portfolio. My response was simple: “I don’t know.” He didn’t like my answer at first, but when I explained further, his perspective toward Bitcoin changed.

You see, I am a big believer in investing in what I know. For example, I like to look at companies whose business I understand—I understand how they make sales and generate their profits. When it comes to foreign exchange, I look at currencies of countries that I know I can learn more about and the data sources are reliable.

But when it comes to Bitcoin, I am still uncertain about how it is priced. With stocks, you can get a general idea about where the stock prices might be headed. You can look at analysts’ expectations and the like. With Bitcoin, it isn’t mainstream just yet. There are some analysts who are saying the digital currency will skyrocket, while on the other side, there are those who are saying it will die as quickly as it became famous. At the very core, there’s too much noise.

On top of this, there’s too much volatility in Bitcoin’s value. I was watching a live chart of Bitcoin prices compared to the U.S. dollar not too long ago, and in a matter of minutes, the digital currency’s value increased roughly $30.00, then declined, then came back up to its original value, and then it declined even more. This can be problematic, because it pretty much turns an investor’s portfolio into a roller coaster ride. Investors might see massive gains one minute, but huge losses the next. Simply put, gains and losses are very uncertain.

When it comes to investing for the long run, instead of just getting caught up in the noise, and running for “what’s hot” in the market, investors should do their own due diligence. The idea behind long-term investing is to have a portfolio that grows over time with minimized risks. By investing in securities like Bitcoin, this is certainly not achieved.

I believe the digital currency is currently in the price discovery mode. This is when the prices of a certain asset are evaluated through the marketplace. In this phase, there are wild fluctuations, because not a lot is known about the asset.

Will Bitcoin ever be recognized as a stable currency without a central authority?

This may become the case sometime in the future, but for now, there’s scrutiny around it. For instance, the central bank of China has banned third-party payment companies from doing business in Bitcoin. (Source: Spaven, E., “China Bans Payment Companies from Working With Bitcoin Exchanges, Sources Claim,” CoinDesk, December 16, 2013.)

Similarly, the European Banking Authority (EBA) has said that “Currently, no specific regulatory protections exist in the EU that would protect consumers from financial losses if a platform that exchanges or holds virtual currencies fails or goes out of business.” (Source: Jones, h., “EU banking watchdog warns of risks from Bitcoin,” Reuters, December 13, 2103)

A portfolio that is well-diversified can go a long way. When it comes to Bitcoin, investors should wait and see how this all turns out. Getting involved in the digital currency now could drastically hurt their portfolio, and this can eventually set them back on their goals.

Bottom line: invest in what you know.

Original Link: http://www.dailygainsletter.com/us-dollar/bitcoin-the-next-hot-trade-or-a-scam/2250/

By George Leong for Daily Gains Letter

This year, Christmas will bring joy to many investors with the stock market now nailing gains in excess of 30% for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Even if you are a more conservative investor buying DOW and S&P 500 stocks, your wallet still got bigger.

What has surprised me this year has not been the advance as much as the ability of the stock market to avoid a sizable stock market correction. The S&P 500 retrenched about 6.5% in May and June after the Federal Reserve first uttered the word “taper.” Yet the downcast mood didn’t last that long, as traders quickly entered the market and bought on the weakness. This has largely been the pattern this year, where any sign of weakness was followed by buying.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

Now I’m not a pessimist, but I do believe in market adjustments along the way. At the beginning of the year, I predicted the stock market would move higher, but not at the rate and size we saw. Maybe a 15% upside, but definitely not 30% plus.

Record after record, the stock market appears to be looking to higher ground. I remain bullish at this time, especially if consumers decide to up their spending. Yet there’s still the lack of revenue growth in corporate America that hopefully could correct itself as we move into 2014.

At this point, you really should look to realize some profits, especially on your big winners, prior to the year-end tax season. To counter some of the gains, I suggest you also divest some of your dogs in your portfolio. Look, we all make mistakes; investing is not foolproof, and mistakes are inevitable. However, it’s an opportune time to dump losers, as the stock market advance has helped to drive up the price of even the poor companies.

In addition to liquidating some positions and getting set for 2014, I also suggest you look at hedging against a possible stock market correction via the use of put options. This investment strategy is used by pros and retail investors.

The employment of a put option strategy is easily done by buying put options for a stock or a group of stocks on the situation you may be weighted in a particular sector.

If you are heavily weighted in technology and small-cap stocks, you can buy put options on the NASDAQ and Russell 2000. In blue chips or large-caps, look at buying puts on the DOW and S&P 500.

Alternatively, you can also buy bearish ETFs on just about any index or sector, both domestically and for international stock markets.

Achieving success in the stock market is not about gambling, but about careful thinking and pursuing proper risk management strategies.

Source: http://www.dailygainsletter.com/stock-market/two-key-steps-to-stock-market-success-in-2014/2256/

By HY Markets Forex Blog

WTI crude traded close to its highest price in a week, following the Federal Reserve’s announcement to reduce its monthly purchases and the drop in U.S crude stockpiles.

Futures were trading slightly flat after U.S crude inventories declined by 2.94 million barrels  to 372.3 million barrels in the week ended Dec 13, dropping for a third week, reports from the Energy Information Administration confirmed.  The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced it will begin to reduce its $85 billion monthly bond purchases to $75 billion, starting next year January, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said.

“The Fed has given an endorsement to the growth that’s coming through with this decision,” Chief strategist at CMC Markets Michael McCarthy said. “From a technical point of view, West Texas is bumping up against resistance,” he added.

West Texas Intermediate for January delivery came in at $97.71 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at the time of writing. While the European benchmark for February settlement declined 0.2% to $109.41 per barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent crude was at a premium of $11.42 to WTI for the same month.

WTI Crude – Federal Reserve Tapering

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) concluded its two-day meeting with an announcement to begin scaling-back on the central bank’s monthly asset purchases by reducing it by $10 billion.

The Federal Reserve’s purchases will be divided into $35 billion in mortgage bonds and $40 billion in Treasuries starting from January next year, the Fed Chairman confirmed.

The unemployment rate dropped to 7% in November, dropping to the lowest level in five years. According to the International Energy Agency, the US; the largest oil consumer in the world, is expected to account for nearly 21% of global demand this year.

WTI Crude – Fuel Supplies

A report from EIA showed that crude stockpiles in Oklahoma dropped by 600,000 barrels to 40.6 million in the week ended December 13.

Gasoline inventories added 1.34 million barrels; lower than analysts’ forecast of a 1.5 million rise, a report from the Energy Department Statistical arm confirmed.

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The post WTI Crude Close to One-Week High; Fed to Begin Tapering appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

By HY Markets Forex Blog

The price of Gold dropped to the lowest level in almost two weeks, following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) announcement to begin the tapering of its monthly bond purchases as the world’s largest economy is improving so as the U.S jobs market.

Bullion futures prices dropped 1.12%, trading at $1.221.90 an ounce at the time of writing. Gold futures for February delivery fell 1.3% to $1,219.40 on the Comex. Silver futures declined 3.61% to touch $19.335 an ounce.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) concluded its two-day meeting by announcing to begin tapering its $85 billion monthly asset purchases to $75 billion.

Holdings in the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, came in at 812.62 tones on Wednesday, marking its lowest level since January 2009.

The US dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, edged 0.62% higher at 80.603 points.

Gold – Federal Reserve Tapering 

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) concluded its two-day meeting with an announcement to begin scaling-back on the central bank’s monthly asset purchases by reducing it by $10 billion.

“Reflecting cumulative progress and an improved outlook for the job market, the committee decided today to modestly reduce the monthly pace at which it is adding to the longer-term securities on its balance sheet,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve’s purchases will be divided into $35 billion in mortgage bonds and $40 billion in Treasuries starting from January next year, the Fed Chairman confirmed.

Gold – US Data

The Department of Commerce confirmed the annual housing rate started from a 22.7% high to 1.091 million in November, compared to analysts’ forecast of a 954.000 unit pace. While in October, it rose to 889,000.

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The post Gold Swings to Two-Week Low on Fed-Tapering Announcement appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

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Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for December 19^th, 2013

EUR/USD

It looks like Eurodollar is reversing. In the near term, local correction may continue. Later, price is expected to continue falling down towards level of 50%.

As we can see at H1 chart, current short-term correction may reach level of 38.2%. If pair rebounds from this level, price will start new descending movement. According to analysis of temporary fibo-zones, lower targets may be reached by the end of the week.

USD/CHF

Franc started fast ascending movement. Most likely, in the future pair will continue growing up. Closest target for bulls is correctional level of 50%.

At H1 chart we can see, that current ascending movement may yet continue. However, during the day pair may start slight correction, which is unlikely to be more than 38.2%. If price rebounds from this level, I’ll consider opening buy orders.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By WallStreetDaily.com

Get fit – or get fatter!

That will certainly be the most common decision made by Americans as the calendar flips into 2014, whether it’s a conscious one or not. Because the stats don’t lie…

Currently, two-thirds of adults (and nearly one in three children) are overweight or obese, according to the U.S. Surgeon General.

No wonder “losing weight” is the most popular New Year’s resolution year in and year out.

Always the opportunist, I find myself wondering if this is a tradable phenomenon. So I decided to dig into the numbers to find out.

Let’s just say that the results were more shocking than the number of people who actually keep their New Year’s resolutions.

‘Tis the Season

The sudden urge to slim down each New Year definitely boosts sales for leading weight-loss companies, NutriSystem, Inc. (NTRI) and Weight Watchers International, Inc. (WTW).

Their first-quarter sales have improved sequentially over the past six years – by an average of 60.2% and 25.1%, respectively.

Now, plenty of companies witness such severe seasonality – particularly in the retail sector. And as investors come to expect it over time, this shouldn’t be an exploitable phenomenon.

Well, that’s where the shock comes in…

Another Market Myth Gets Busted

Over the last decade, both NutriSystem and Weight Watchers averaged gains in the first three months of the year. And February and March represent particularly positive months, meaning the strong sales results coincide with strong stock returns.

(Consider this the latest proof that efficient market hypothesis is total bunk.)

Now, what about the inconsistent performance during the middle of the year? Well, it’s hardly coincidental…

After all, 36% of Americans give up on their New Year’s resolutions within one month, 54% cry uncle within six months, and only a pathetic 8% keep their resolutions all year, according to research out of the University of Scranton.

Essentially, as more customers bail – forcing the companies to adjust sales guidance – investors head for the exits, too.

Like clockwork, though, investors return near the end of the year in anticipation of a new crop of weight-loss resolutions.

Again, this stock market seasonality shouldn’t exist. But it does, making now an attractive time to consider entering a position.

Careful, though! Only one of these stocks represents a solid investment.

Choose Wisely

All signs point to NutriSystem being the best bet.

It averages positive returns 66% of the time in the first quarter of the year, compared to 43% for Weight Watchers.

February is historically the best month for the stock, with positive returns an impressive 90% of the time over the last decade.

A quick glance at the fundamentals seals the deal.

NutriSystem might be trading at a higher valuation than Weight Watchers, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25.7 versus 11.2. But it’s deserved.

Analysts expect the company to boost sales and profits by 15% and 65%, respectively, next year. In comparison, Weight Watchers is expected to witness an 8.5% decline in sales and almost a 10% decline in profits in 2014.

Bottom line: Self-improvement goes hand in hand with the New Year. And profits can, too, now that you know how to cash in on Americans’ inability to commit.

Ahead of the tape,

Louis Basenese

The post The Scary Truth About New Year’s Resolutions… and How to Trade It appeared first on Wall Street Daily.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: The Scary Truth About New Year’s Resolutions… and How to Trade It

Article By RoboForex.com

Analysis for December 19^th, 2013

EUR/USD

H4 chart of EUR/USD shows descending correction, which started after Tower and Tweezers patterns. Three Line Break chart and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm bearish tendency.

H1 chart of EUR/USD shows bearish tendency, which is indicated by Tweezers pattern. Three Line Break chart confirms descending movement; Harami pattern and Heiken Ashi candlesticks indicate bullish pullback.

USD/JPY

H4 chart of USD/JPY shows bullish tendency within ascending trend. Three Line Break chart and Heiken Ashi candlesticks confirm ascending movement.

H1 chart of USD/JPY shows correction within ascending trend, which is indicated by Tweezers pattern. Three Line Break chart confirms current trend; Heiken Ashi candlesticks indicate that correction continues.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

EURUSD is facing the support of the lower line of the price channel on 4-hour chart. As long as the channel support holds, the uptrend from 1.3296 (Nov 7 low) could be expected to resume, and another rise to test 1.3832 (Oct 25 high) resistance is still possible. On the downside, a clear break below the channel support will indicate that the uptrend had completed at 1.3810 already, then the pair will find support around 1.3400.

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